Sunday Night Football odds: Bears slim favorites hosting rival Vikings

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A first-place showdown in the NFC North is a study in contrast twice over, with a young Chicago Bears team trying to buck a long-term betting trend, while the more seasoned Minnesota Vikings try to maintain one.

The Bears, with the rookie head coach / second-year quarterback combo of Matt Nagy and Mitchell Trubisky, are 2.5-point favorites on the Sunday Night Football odds against the Vikings with a 44.5-point total at sportsbooks monitored by OddsShark.com.

The first-place Bears are 5-1-1 against the spread in their last seven home games against teams with winning records, but since 2012 they are 4-6 straight-up and 3-6-1 ATS as a home favorite of 3.0 or fewer points. For what it might be worth, over that same span the Vikings are 8-2 both SU and ATS in 10 games as a road underdog, according to the OddsShark NFL Database.

Minnesota is also on a 6-0-1 SU run over its last seven games against NFC North counterparts.

The Vikings, who are 5-3-1 SU and 4-3-2 ATS, are firmly in the middle of the NFL pack in offensive proficiency after betting big on quarterback Kirk Cousins in free agency. Minnesota has had turnover issues and the fourth-ranked Bears defense, built around outside linebacker Khalil Mack, thrives at takeaways and creating opportunities for points off of turnovers.

Minnesota expects to have both of its top two wide receivers, Stefon Diggs (ribs) and Adam Thielen, healthy, as they try to break down a Bears pass defense whose 6.8 yards per attempt is the third-best in the league.

While a bye in Week 10 might have given Minnesota extra time to work on their ground game with Dalvin Cook and Latavius Murray, they are only 2-6 ATS in their last eight post-bye week games. The Bears lead the league with 3.6 yards per rush allowed, which mean Cousins will likely face his share of obvious passing downs.

The Bears, who are 6-3 SU and ATS on the season, are on roll behind Trubisky, a quarterback in the modern mold who can create havoc for defenses with his arms and legs. Whether the Bears continue a trend of being 8-2 ATS in their last 10 home games against the Vikings, a team they play twice a season, will come down to whether Trubisky will keep his wits about him against a fifth-ranked Vikings defense whose 31 sacks are second in the NFL.

The Bears have the benefit of having a cadre of receivers – Allen Robinson, Taylor Gabriel and Anthony Miller out wide; Trey Burton at tight end; and Tarik Cohen coming out of the backfield – whose varying skillsets could force Minnesota into a guessing game.

Bettors will have to decide whether the fact the Vikings allow a full yard per pass, 7.8 yards, more than the Bears speaks more to scheme or health. Defensive stalwarts such as nose tackle Linval Joseph, defensive end Everson Griffen, cornerback Xavier Rhodes, linebacker Anthony Barr and safety Andrew Sendejo are all expected to be available after missing games. Despite those injuries, Minnesota played the run well, allowing 3.6 yards per rush, a close fourth in the league rankings.

The total has gone UNDER in eight of the Vikings’ last 10 games at night. The total has gone UNDER in seven of the Vikings’ last nine games against the Bears, with an average combined score of 38.33 points. The total has gone OVER in five of the Bears’ last six games, with an average combined score of 54.33 points.

For more odds information, betting picks and a breakdown of this week’s top sports betting news check out the OddsShark podcast with Jon Campbell and Andrew Avery. Subscribe on iTunes or Spotify or listen to it at OddsShark.libsyn.com.

NFL Week 11 odds: Rams, Seahawks, Bears all betting favorites

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The NFL’s top two teams have decidedly different trends in Monday night contests.

The Los Angeles Rams, led by quarterback Jared Goff, are 3.5-point betting favorites against the Kansas City Chiefs with a 63-point total on the NFL odds for Monday at sportsbooks monitored by OddsShark.com.

The Rams are 1-7 straight-up and 2-6 against the spread in their last eight games on a Monday, as well as 5-12 SU and 4-12-1 ATS in their last 17 games at night, although much of that was compiled before coach Sean McVay came on the scene. The Chiefs, led by MVP candidate Pat Mahomes, are 7-2 ATS in their last nine games on a Monday, as well as 7-2 SU and 8-1 ATS in their last nine games as an underdog.

Elsewhere this week, the Seattle Seahawks are 3-point favorites on the NFL Week 11 odds against the Green Bay Packers with a 48.5-point total in a Thursday matchup. The Packers are 0-6 SU and 1-5 ATS in their last six road games, with an average losing margin of 11.5 points. The Seahawks are 7-0-1 ATS in their last eight games on a Thursday.

The Houston Texans are 3-point road favorites against the Washington Redskins with a 42.5-point total. The Texans are 4-10 ATS in their last 14 games. The total has gone UNDER in 10 of the Texans’ last 14 games after a bye. The Redskins are 6-2 SU and ATS in their last eight home games.

The Atlanta Falcons are 3-point favorites against the Dallas Cowboys with a 48.5-point total. The Cowboys, who defeated the Philadelphia Eagles during Week 10, are 0-5 SU in their last five games after a win. The total has gone UNDER in eight of the Cowboys’ last nine road games, according to the OddsShark NFL Database, with an average combined score of 33.0. The Falcons are 4-10 ATS in their last 14 games in the early afternoon.

The Indianapolis Colts are 2-point favorites against the Tennessee Titans with a 48.5-point total. The Titans are 6-0 SU and ATS in their last six games against divisional opponents. The total has gone UNDER in 12 of the Colts’ last 17 home games, with an average combined score of 43.41.

The Pittsburgh Steelers are 5.5-point road favorites against the Jacksonville Jaguars with a 47-point total. The Steelers are 9-0-1 SU in their last 10 road games, with an average winning margin of 7.9 points. The total has gone UNDER in 11 of the Jaguars’ last 15 games in the early afternoon.

The New Orleans Saints are 8.5-point betting favorites against the Philadelphia Eagles with a 56-point total. The Eagles are 2-6 ATS in their last eight games. The Saints are 7-0 ATS in their last seven games. The total has gone OVER in 13 of the Saints’ last 17 games in the late afternoon.

And the Chicago Bears are 2.5-point favorites against the Minnesota Vikings with a 45-point total in the Sunday night matchup. The total has gone OVER in five of the Bears’ last six games, with an average combined score of 54.33. The Vikings are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 road games against the Bears.

For more odds information, betting picks and a breakdown of this week’s top sports betting news check out the OddsShark podcast with Jon Campbell and Andrew Avery. Subscribe on iTunes or Spotify or listen to it at OddsShark.libsyn.com.

Matchweek 12 Premier League odds: Manchester Derby highlights weekend

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The disparate fortunes of the teams involved in this weekend’s Manchester derby might lead bettors to seek out ways to restore betting value to Manchester City.

Playing at the Etihad Stadium, Manchester City are the -250 moneyline favorite on this week’s Premier League odds with Manchester United coming back at +700, while the draw is at +400 with a 3.0-goals total for Sunday at sportsbooks monitored by OddsShark.com.

The away team has had a result in the last six games in this matchup (four wins and two 0-0 draws). The law of averages alone indicates it would be tough for that to continue, but there have also been OVER 2.5 goals scored in 21 of Man City’s last 24 home games, as well as OVER 2.5 goals scored in Man United’s last five Premier League games.

Taking Manchester City win/yes (+150) in both teams to score (BTTS) props is a higher-yield play, as they are an aggressive team at home and will work to set up Sergio Aguero (+275 first goal scorer, -145 anytime). Manchester City has also been leading at halftime in six of its last seven games. On the Man United front, Romelu Lukaku’s absence might make for a slow start, but at minus-1.5 (-125) on the goals line, the Red Devils might recoup some value.

Elsewhere, Cardiff City (+155) has not fared well over the years against Brighton & Hove Albion (+210, draw +215), which has drawn or won 11 of the last 12 matchups (all competitions). Since Brighton has won only one of its last 19 away matches in EPL play, its double chance odds (-185) could be a more secure play.

Leicester City (-200) visits Burnley (+650, draw +325) having shown, by winning its previous outing, that it is channeling grief over the tragic helicopter death of chairman Vichai Srivaddhanaprabha two weeks ago. There have been OVER 2.5 goals (-120 on the betting line) in five of Burnley’s last six games, so Leicester might be able to pounce.

Crystal Palace (+355) and Tottenham Hotspur (-120, draw +270) has been a low-scoring fixture. Crystal Palace has failed to score in their last four tries against Tottenham and the teams’ last five matchups have been under 2.5 goals (in all competitions). Taking No/Under 2.5 (+175) in both teams to score props covers the possibility of Tottenham grinding out another win.

Liverpool (-950) takes on Fulham (+2400, draw +1000) in a Sunday matchup that is a mismatch on paper, with a rare 4.0-goals total. Liverpool has kept clean sheets in seven of its last eight games against Fulham in all competitions, and Fulham is on a five-game losing streak. Smarting from a Champions League loss on Wednesday, Liverpool could take out its frustrations and go OVER (+110) on its own 3.5-goals total.

And Chelsea (-240) hosts Everton (+650, draw +400) on Sunday with the expectation of a fully fit squad, save for Cesc Fabregas (illness), after playing a Champions League match on Thursday. Both Chelsea’s last four games and five of Everton’s last six games have gone OVER 2.5 goals, so this matchup’s 3.0-goals total could be bested.

For more odds information, betting picks and a breakdown of this week’s top sports betting news check out the OddsShark podcast with Jon Campbell and Andrew Avery. Subscribe on iTunes or Spotify or listen to it at OddsShark.libsyn.com.