SNF Odds: Patriots favored by touchdown over Lions

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It’s not unusual for the New England Patriots to lay a touchdown as a road team – it just normally comes later in the season, which might raise a red flag about the underdog Detroit Lions.

The Patriots, with quarterback Tom Brady behind centre, are 7-point road favorites against the Detroit Lions with a 53.5-point total for Sunday Night Football, according to sportsbooks monitored by OddsShark.com.

Over the last three seasons, according to the OddsShark NFL Database, the Patriots are 8-1 straight-up and 6-3 against the spread as a road favorite of 6.5 or more points, but this is only the second time they have had such a large line before October 1. The Lions, led by quarterback Matthew Stafford, are 0-5 SU and 1-4 ATS in their last five games as an underdog.

The primetime matchup sees Patriots head coach Bill Belichick match wits with Lions head coach Matt Patricia, who was previously New England’s defensive coordinator. Under Belichick, the Patriots are 12-6 SU and 11-7 ATS in matchups against teams whose head coach once worked for the Patriots.

The main question offensively with the Patriots, 1-1 SU and ATS, is whether Brady’s complement of wide receivers, which includes Chris Hogan and Phillip Dorsett, are dangerous enough to draw attention away from tight end Rob Gronkowski. The good news for New England is the Lions have yet to show they can stop the pass or the run, ranking fifth-worst in the NFL in yards per pass allowed and third-last in opponents’ passer rating, and dead last in rushing yards allowed.

Newly acquired wide receiver Josh Gordon (hamstring) is listed as questionable on the team’s injury report for the week. Since 2000, the Patriots are 21-6 ATS after a double-digit defeat. They lost 31-20 against the Jacksonville Jaguars in Week 2.

The Lions, who are 0-2 SU and 1-1 ATS, have had to play catch-up during both of their games due to the aforementioned dismal defense and the offense having six turnovers. The fact that the Lions are 7-2 SU in their last nine games at home after losing their most recent home game offers some reassurance that quarterback Matthew Stafford and his supporting cast of wide receivers Marvin Jones and Golden Tate should have a strong night.

The Patriots defense has also been leaky so far, ranking 13th in yards per pass allowed but 25th in yards per rush, so Detroit has an opportunity to use running backs LeGarrette Blount and Theo Riddick effectively and keep Stafford out of desperate down-and-distance scenarios.

This is already the Lions’ second prime-time game of the season, but they are 5-12-1 ATS in 18 games at night with Stafford as their quarterback.

The total has gone UNDER in eight of the Patriots’ last 10 road games when they were favored by at least 6.5 points, but all of those games were played outdoors on October 15 or later in the fall. The total has gone OVER in eight of the Lions’ last 10 games at home, with an average combined score of 51.1.

For more odds information, betting picks and a breakdown of this week’s top sports betting news check out the OddsShark podcast with Jon Campbell and Andrew Avery. Subscribe on iTunes or listen to it at OddsShark.libsyn.com.

 

Matchweek 6 Premier League odds feature Fulham as a favorite

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The form suggest Fulham and Watford, in their first Premier League match in 12 seasons, could produce some offensive fireworks.

Fulham, a freshly promoted side that boasts Aleksandar Mitrovic, is a +145 favorite on the Premier League odds for this weekend with Watford coming back at +195 at sportsbooks monitored by OddsShark.com. The draw offers +245 on the three-way moneyline and the total is 2.5 goals.

While Watford is the slight underdog, it has four common opponents with Fulham and has won all four games, compared to Fulham being 1-1-2 (wins/draws/losses).

The both teams to score and over (-125) on the total look like promising picks, as both Fulham and Watford have only played in one game apiece so far this season that had a clean sheet. Both Mitrovic (+115 anytime goal scorer, +400 first goal scorer) and Watford’s Troy Denney (+180, +600 respectively) should have favourable matchups against two less than stingy defenses.

Crystal Palace (+115), which has been a consistently inconsistent side, hosts  Newcastle United (+270, draw +230), which has one-goal losses against four of last season’s top six teams. The drop down in calibre of opponent makes Newcastle a value play, perhaps even for the outright win. Four of these teams’ last five matches have finished with fewer than 2.5 goals.

Brighton and Hove Albion (+395) looks to be lying in wait at home against a tattered Tottenham Hotspur (-130, draw +290), which had a gutting Champions League away loss to Inter Milan on Wednesday and has several players, including Harry Kane, possibly dealing with post-World Cup fatigue. At minimum, Brighton is worth taking on the win/draw double chance.

Burnley (+190), winless in the league, is a slight underdog at home against Bournemouth (+155, draw +240). Both teams have scored in the last six games of this matchup, making the over (+105) on the 2.5-goals total inviting. Burnley have been allowing a plethora of chances, so Bournemouth’s Ryan Fraser (+300 anytime goal scorer) should have a slew of opportunities to get on the board.

West Ham (+475) will have a tough task trying to limit Chelsea (-180, draw +340) in a Sunday betting matchup, as the Hammers have struggled to avoid fouls and the Blues, led by Eden Hazard, thrive off set pieces. The over on the 3.0-goals total has good value at even money.

And Arsenal (-215) has won three on the bounce ahead of welcoming Everton (+575, draw +390) for a Sunday matchup. On top of the win streak, Arsenal’s first-choice talents such as Alexandre Lacazette, Mesut Ozil and Granit Xhaka are well-rested for a derby where both teams have scored in six of the last eight matchups. Arsenal is worth considering at minus-1.5 goals (+120) and totals bettors might want to look at alternate lines.

For more odds information, betting picks and a breakdown of this week’s top sports betting news check out the OddsShark podcast with Jon Campbell and Andrew Avery. Subscribe on iTunes or listen to it at OddsShark.libsyn.com.

College football odds: Wisconsin, USC join betting favorites for week ahead

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One week after their College Football Playoff hopes took a major hit, star running back Jonathan Taylor and the Wisconsin Badgers hit the road to face a rival with a knack of taking down ranked opponents at home.

The Badgers are 3.5-point road favorites against the Iowa Hawkeyes with a 41.5-point total on the college football odds for Saturday, according to sportsbooks monitored by OddsShark.com. The winner of this matchup has played in the Big Ten championship game for four years running.

While Wisconsin had a double-digit drop in the polls after a loss against the Brigham Young Cougars last week, the OddsShark College Football Database shows they are 11-1 against the spread in their last 12 road games as well as 9-0 straight-up in their last nine. However, the Hawkeyes are 7-1 ATS in their last eight home games. Iowa also has a 5-2 ATS record in their last seven games as a home underdog at Kinnick Stadium, including outright wins against Ohio State and Michigan the last two seasons, when both were ranked in the Top 5.

It’s the road opener for the Badgers and quarterback Alex Hornibrook. The total has gone UNDER in seven of Wisconsin’s last eight road games after consecutive home games.

The USC Trojans are 3.5-point favorites against the Washington State Cougars with a 51.5-point total in a Friday matchup. The total has gone OVER in Washington State’s last four road games. USC is 0-6 ATS in its last six games.

The Stanford Cardinal are 2-point road favorites against the Oregon Ducks with a 55-point total. The total has gone OVER in 10 of Stanford’s last 13 games against Oregon. Oregon is 2-11 ATS in its last 13 home games in September.

The Notre Dame Fighting Irish are 7.5-point road favorites against the Wake Forest Demon Deacons with a 55.5-point total. The total has gone OVER in seven of Notre Dame’s last 10 road games. Wake Forest is 2-11 SU in its last 13 home games against teams with winning records.

The Michigan Wolverines are 18-point favorites against the Nebraska Cornhuskers with a 49.5-point total. Nebraska is 4-1 ATS in its last five road games, but it is 0-6 SU in its last six games. Michigan is 15-0 SU in its last 15 home games against teams with losing records.

The TCU Horned Frogs are 3-point road favorites against the Texas Longhorns with a 51-point total. TCU is 7-2 SU and ATS in its last nine road games. The total has gone UNDER in 14 of Texas’ last 16 games against its conference.

The Georgia Bulldogs are 14.5-point road favorites against the Missouri Tigers with a 61.5-point total. Georgia is 7-1 SU and ATS in its last eight road games. The total has gone UNDER in 20 of Georgia’s last 26 road games in September. Missouri is 9-3 ATS in its last 12 games.

The Clemson Tigers are 16.5-point road favorites against the Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets with a 52.5-point total. Clemson is 1-5 SU in its last six road games against Georgia Tech. Georgia Tech is 6-2 ATS in its last eight home games.

The Alabama Crimson Tide are 27-point betting favorites against the Texas A&M Aggies with a 61.5-point total. Texas A&M is 2-10 ATS in its last 12 road games against teams with winning records. The total has gone OVER in five of Alabama’s last six games in September.

And the Washington Huskies are 17.5-point favorites against the Arizona State Sun Devils with a 50-point total. Arizona State is 11-1 SU and 12-0 ATS in its last 12 games against Washington. Washington is 9-3 ATS in its last 12 games against its conference.

For more odds information, betting picks and a breakdown of this week’s top sports betting news check out the OddsShark podcast with Jon Campbell and Andrew Avery. Subscribe on iTunes or listen to it at OddsShark.libsyn.com.