NFL Power Rankings: Early assessments of every team

It’s too early, and I’m not ready to form rock-solid opinions on ranking the teams 1 to 32. I’m going to do it here, but I reserve the right to change my mind after seeing the teams in training camp. I’ve separated the teams into seven categories.

Can’t find a weakness

1. Philadelphia. The Eagles averaged 34.7 points per game in the playoffs, have adequately compensated for losses of both coordinators, are not worse at any position (amazing on the defensive line, considering they had a 69-sack year last year and lost Javon Hargrave), have an offensive line that should keep upright a rising superstar QB-of-the-future at the top of his game, and will field two top-15 NFL wideouts entering their age-25 (DeVonta Smith) and age-26 (A.J. Brown) seasons.

 

They’ve got Super Bowl vibes

2. Kansas City. Most wins in the last four seasons, including playoffs: KC 62, Buffalo 51, Green Bay 49. Eleven more wins than any team since 2019 qualifies as a wow. Andy Reid, as usual, has work to do, after losing left tackle Orlando Brown, leading wide receiver JuJu Smith-Schuster and speed receiver Mecole Hardman in free agency.
3. Cincinnati. Since New Year’s Day 2022, Cincinnati has beaten Kansas City by 3, 3 and 3, and lost by 3—after being tied at 20 with 30 seconds left and punting to Patrick Mahomes. (Guess what happened.) Lucky for the Bengals, defensive coordinator Lou Anarumo didn’t get the Arizona job—he’s been as good as a schemer can be against Mahomes.
4. San Francisco. I know you don’t necessarily pick up where you left off the previous year, and I know the QB situation is odd, but prior to the quarterback injury implosion in the NFC title game, I can’t unsee this truth: The Niners were on a 12-game winning streak, with nine of the wins by double digits.
5. Buffalo. Bills at the crossroads after the toughest playoff loss any team suffered last season (Bengals 27, Bills 10, at Orchard Park). Josh Allen needs Gabe Davis to return to late-2021 form, and for two additions—first-round TE Dalton Kincaid and under-appreciated free agent WR Trent Sherfield—to contribute immediately. Very important year, chasing the ever-elusive Lombardi.

 

They’re on the border

6. Detroit. Loved ‘em with their 8-2 record after Halloween. I still find myself smitten with the Lions. But curious move this offseason. The Lions took what wasn’t broken and tried to fix it. Jamaal Williams/D’Andre Swift last year: 1,608 rushing yards, 4.5 per rush, 22 rushing touchdowns. Now both are gone. That’s pressure on Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery, particularly when the head coach is a big-time running guy.
7. Baltimore. Lamar Jackson has the best weapons, by far, that he’s had since being drafted five years ago. Now he needs to stay on the field, and his collective weaponry should improve his 33-to-20 TD-to-pick differential over the last two years.
8. Miami. Slight edge over the Jets counting on two big things happening: Tua Tagovailoa being healthy for 15 games and new defensive coordinator Vic Fangio markedly improving the league’s 24^th-ranked scoring defense.
9. N.Y. Jets. It’s logical to think Aaron Rodgers will lift all Jets, and I believe he will. Rodgers is the kind of person who can set his mind to something—such as showing the Packers and the world he’s not kaput entering his age-40 season—and go out and do it.
10. Dallas. Know why this is a crucial year for the Cowboys? They’ve won 24 regular-season games in the last two years, then scored 36 points in eight quarters in two playoff losses to the Niners. Dak Prescott’s got to do something about that, now.

 

If all goes right …

11. N.Y. Giants. No team exceeded expectations in 2022 more than the Giants, and to build on that, Daniel Jones and a rising defensive front both have to be 10 percent better. I believe each can be.
12. Seattle. They’re deep at running back (Kenneth Walker/Zach Charbonnet), and there aren’t many teams with a better three-man receiver corps than D.K. Metcalf, Tyler Lockett and Jaxon Smith-Njigba.
13. Jacksonville. Rising team, with one asterisk. For all borderline playoff teams, the most important rookie this year might be tackle Anton Harrison, picked 27^th by GM Trent Baalke after starting 24 games at Oklahoma, because of the free-agent loss of right tackle Jawaan Taylor and the looming PED suspension, reportedly, of left tackle Cam Robinson.
14. Minnesota. The league’s 31^st-ranked defense has lost Dalvin Tomlinson, Eric Kendricks and Patrick Peterson already, and edge Za’Darius Smith badly wants out. The Vikings can score, but they can score consistently in the low thirties, which they may have to do to contend?
15. L.A. Chargers. You can’t unsee blowing a 27-0 playoff lead and losing to the Jags, which makes the resuscitation of pricy cornerback J.C. Jackson vital after his lost 2022 season.
16. Pittsburgh. NFL position group with the most surprising 2023 makeover: the Steelers’ secondary, with corners Patrick Peterson and Joey Porter Jr. and safety Keanu Neal. Every one of those is a double take.
17. Cleveland. I think Deshaun Watson is still good, but how can you tell after seeing him play six (highly) mediocre games in the last 28 months?
18. Tennessee. Feels like the Titans are a slow start from Will Levis playing by Nov. 1, selling Derrick Henry by the trade deadline, and building for 2024.

 

They’ve got holes

19. Las Vegas. Devon Witherspoon would have been the perfect draftee, due to the Raiders’ major corner need in a division with Patrick Mahomes and Justin Herbert (and Russell Wilson if he can be revived), but pressure from Tyree Wilson would be vital for the pass defense as well.
20. New England. Other than new OC Bill O’Brien, it’s hard to get excited about a team that finished losing five of the last seven, with the D/special teams allowing 29.7 points per game in the last seven weeks. And then defensive leader Devin McCourty retired.
21. Green Bay. Brett Favre and Aaron Rodgers were 14-15, combined, in their first starting seasons in Green Bay. So a rocky season for Jordan Love won’t rock the Packers’ future with him, unless 2023 is a total debacle.
22. Atlanta. One thing I think: The Falcons offense has the most diverse weaponry of any offense in football; imagine trying to defend monstrous Cordarrelle Patterson and Jonnu Smith, big-man receiver Drake London and elusive Bijan Robinson in the slot, and 1,000-yard-rusher Tyler Allgeier as a sledgehammer alternative.
23. Denver. Broncos will be a playoff contender if Sean Payton unlocks Russell Wilson. It is entirely possible Payton will.
24. New Orleans. A bad division is there for the Saints to win—if old warhorses like Demario Davis, Cam Jordan and Tyrann Mathieu can muster up one more charge, and if Derek Carr can improve a team that was 22^nd in scoring last year to middle of the pack.

 

Under construction

25. Carolina. I don’t expect it to take long for Bryce Young to get up to speed in the Carolina offense, but what no one knows is if Young will be sturdy enough to make it through an 18-week NFL campaign.
26. Indianapolis. There are more problems than the five-year revolving door at quarterback, so don’t just laser-focus on when Anthony Richardson plays. See if Gus Bradley can mend an atrocious D that allowed 36.6 points a game after Dec. 1.
27. Washington. I get giving Sam Howell his big chance here, and backing him up with Jacoby Brissett is okay too. But keep in mind how far this offense—which averaged 17.7 points a game in the last 16 weeks—has to go.
28. L.A. Rams. Not saying Sean McVay reads Football Morning in America, but I do believe that retching sound you’ll hear around 7 a.m. PT today is the sound of McVay vomiting when he sees his team ranked 28^th in the NFL offseason power rankings.
29. Chicago. Bears have fixed a lot of things in one offseason, without question, and could be anywhere on this list from 31 to 13 by December. But today, I need to see more of Justin Fields the passer to fall in like with this team.
30. Houston. I don’t think a team with the presence and ethos-changing ability of DeMeco Ryans and the playmaking ability of C.J. Stroud can be the worst team in the league.
31. Tampa Bay. Well, the Super Bowl was still worth it.

 

Wait till 2025

32. Arizona. The best thing about being awful this year is GM Monti Ossenfort could have the next 11 months to figure out whether his quarterback of the future is Kyler Murray or if it it’s one of the mega-prospects due out in the 2024 draft—Caleb Williams or Drake Maye.

 
Read more in Peter King’s full Football Morning in America column