NFL Divisional Round Picks 2023: Predictions, betting favorites, best plays for NFL playoff action this weekend

By NBC Sports StaffJan 20, 2023, 1:51 PM EST

The NFL Playoffs continue this weekend with the top seed in each conference taking the field for the first time. Both Kansas City and Philadelphia play Saturday. Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs welcome Trevor Lawrence and the Jaguars into Arrowhead in the early game Saturday in a rematch from Week 10 (Saturday at 4:30pm ET on NBC and Peacock). The late game is the third meeting in the last seven weeks between Jalen Hurts and the Philadelphia Eagles and Daniel Jones and the upstart New York Giants.

Sunday’s doubleheader features Josh Allen and the Buffalo Bills hosting Joe Burrow and the Cincinnati Bengals in the first game followed by Dak Prescott and the Cowboys paying a house call to Brock Purdy and the 49ers.

RELATED: 2023 NFL Playoffs Schedule

As sports bettors size up each game and look for advantages, they need to recognize and eliminate meaningless stats. For example, the misnomer is that beating a team three times in one season is extremely difficult. Not true. Since 1970, 21 teams have won the first two meetings in a season. 14 of those 21 teams won their third meeting in the playoffs. Sharps often say bet the numbers and not the teams. Consider these numbers: Winning teams have covered the spread in 33 of the last 44 Divisional road games.

Take and do what you will with those stats. Know that our NFL staff at NBC Sports EDGE have gone beyond those numbers to find their favorite plays for each game this weekend. They offer their favorite plays on everything from sides and totals to player props. The group includes Jay Croucher (@croucherJD), Vaughn Dalzell (@VMoneySports), and Lawrence Jackson (@LordDontLose). Tail (or fade) as you see fit.

Jacksonville Jaguars @ Kansas City Chiefs -8.5 (Over/Under 53)

Kickoff: January 21 at 4:30 p.m. ET (NBC and Peacock, coverage begins at 3:00pm ET)
Site: Arrowhead Stadium – Kansas City, MO
Jacksonville Playoff History: 8-7 (0 Super Bowl Appearances)
Kansas City Playoff History: 17-21 (2 Super Bowl wins – 4 Appearances)
Series History: Kansas City leads the all-time series winning eight of fourteen games against Jacksonville. These teams have never met in the playoffs.

Note: Back in Week 10, the Chiefs beat the Jags 27-17 in a game where Kansas City jumped out to a 20-0 lead before coasting to the win.

Croucher: Kansas City Chiefs -8.5 (-110)

What is the track record of Patrick Mahomes losing at home against a pass defense as poor as Jacksonville’s? Nonexistent? The secondary has been Jacksonville’s weakness all season but was not exploited by Josh Dobbs or the Chargers’ uninspiring playcalling mixed with the absence of Mike Williams. Mahomes should do whatever he wants against the Jags – the fairytale ends here.

Dalzell: Kansas City Chiefs First Half Team Total OVER 14.5 (-115)

In the Chiefs last nine playoff games not including Super Bowls, Kansas City is 7-2 to the 1H Team Total Over 14.5 and 15.5 points. In those nine games, the Chiefs scored 21, 14, 21, 21, 19, 21, 28, 0 and 24 points (18.7/1^st half). In the last four Divisional Round games, KC has scored 24, 28, 19 and 14 points in the first half of each.

I like the Jaguars’ defense and have enjoyed their current hot-streak, but I am willing to bet they struggle throughout the game against Patrick Mahomes at Arrowhead this weekend. I would play the Chiefs First Half Team Total to 15.5 or 16.0.

Jackson: Jerick McKinnon to score an Anytime Touchdown (+100) and….

The total is set at 53, so let’s think big here. Jerick McKinnon has scored a (receiving) touchdown in six straight games. His work in the run game has been shaky, but I like him to score plus a Chiefs’ win at +105. With his anytime touchdown prop at +100, you may as well bank on the Chiefs winning. Sprinkle in Patrick Mahomes to score plus a Chiefs’ victory at +375 if you are feeling frisky as he has scored a rushing touchdown in two of the Chiefs’ last four contests.

New York Giants @ Philadelphia Eagles -7.5 (Over/Under 48)

Kickoff: January 21 at 8:15 p.m. ET (FOX)
Site: Lincoln Financial Field – Philadelphia, PA
Philadelphia Playoff History: 23-24 (3 Super Bowl appearances, 1 win)
New York Giants Playoff History: 25-25 (5 Super Bowl Appearances, 4 wins)
Series History: The two teams have met 180 times (including 4 postseason games), with the Eagles leading the series with a record of 91-87-2. This includes four playoff games with each team winning twice.

Note: Daniel Jones and Jalen Hurts have combined to rush for more regular season yards (1468) than any other quarterbacks meeting in a playoff game. The tandem of Lamar Jackson and Josh Allen in 2020 (1426 yards) was the previous leader in the category.

Croucher: Miles Sanders OVER 66.5 Rushing Yards (-120)

In the one real match-up between these two teams Sanders had 17 carries for 144 yards. The Giants’ pass defense is improved with Adoree Jackson back, but the rushing defense remains a trainwreck (bottom 3 in rush EPA per play allowed on the season). Philly will target it, especially if Jalen Hurts is at all limited as a passer.

Dalzell: Daniel Jones UNDER 217.5 Passing Yards (-115)

Daniel Jones is coming off his third 300-yard passing game of the season and this prop line was a little inflated at the 223.5 opening line, but I still like the Under 217.5 passing yards down to 214.5. Jones tossed 300 yards against the Lions and Vikings twice, two of the worst pass defenses in the NFL.

This matchup versus the Eagles’ defense is much tougher due to their No. 1 DVOA rank through the air. Jones went Under 217.5 passing yards in 13 out of 16 games this regular-season and in three out of five career meetings versus the Eagles.

I cannot forget to mention that this is a Primetime game under the lights. Jones is 1-9 as a starter in Primetime with an average of 208.7 yards per game, in addition to tossing an interception in eight out of those 10 games. I expect more designed runs and hand-offs to Saquon Barkley versus Philly and lean yes to an interception at +105 and the Game Under 48 (-110).

Jackson: Devonta Smith longest reception OVER 23.5yds (-115)

Devonta Smith has had a reception of 23 yards or more in five of his last six games. The one game in which he did not was Week 18 (17 yards) which happened to be Jalen Hurts’ first week back from injury. Lets make it six of the last seven for Smith. Furthermore, Smith has been on a tear over his last six games averaging 9.5 targets, 6.5 receptions and 97.8 yards per game.

Cincinnati Bengals @ Buffalo Bills -5.5 (Over/Under 48.5)

Kickoff: January 22 at 3:00 p.m. ET (CBS)
Site: Highmark Stadium – Orchard Park, NY
Cincinnati Playoff History: 9-15 (3 Super Bowl appearances – 0 wins)
Buffalo Playoff History: 18-19 (4 Super Bowl appearances – 0 wins)
Series History: These two teams have met 32 times. The Bills lead in the series with a record of 17-15. The Bengals, though, are 2-0 in the playoffs against Buffalo.

Note: The Buffalo Bills were the only team to be favored in every game this season.

Croucher: Ja’Marr Chase OVER 82.5 Receiving Yards (-115)

In his past 5 games, Chase is averaging 13 targets. Even with the Bengals’ O-Line decimated, Chase showed he could still produce with shorter/intermediate routes against the Ravens, going over this number despite not having a single 20+ yard catch. In a game where the Bengals are 5.5point dogs and expected to be trailing and throwing, Chase should clear this number against a banged-up Bills’ secondary.

Dalzell: Joe Burrow OVER Passing Attempts ***

Joe Burrow finished with 32 pass attempts and we had the Under 36.5 versus the Ravens. I teased we would be on the Over versus Buffalo and here we are. Last game was a perfect AFC North clash that would take time off the clock and see long possessions, but with these two teams, I expect plenty of opportunities, especially for Cincy given how Josh Allen likes to turn the ball over.
In the divisional round last season, Burrow threw for 348 passing yards on 37 pass attempts before tossing 38 passes against the Chiefs for 250 yards in the AFC Championship. This is that type of game. Expect the ball to be in Burrow’s hands and the Bengals to lean on him to make plays with his arms and legs.

***This prop has not been published yet, but I expect between 37.5 and 38.5 if the books are smart.

Jackson: Cincinnati Bengals ML (+185)

I am keeping it simple here. No points needed. Despite the injuries and issues with their offensive line, the Bengals are the better team with the better quarterback. The Bengals have not lost since Halloween and just one of those game was actually close (vs. Chiefs). The Bills on the other hand, have squeaked out wins where they should have lost (including Wildcard weekend) and suffered losses to inferior opponents in that span. While both teams were lucky to escape to the divisional round, both sides will give a greater effort this week.

Dallas Cowboys @ San Francisco 49ers -4 (Over/Under 46)

Kickoff: January 15 at 4:30 p.m. ET (FOX)
Site: Levi’s Stadium – Santa Clara, CA
Dallas Playoff History: 36-29 (8 Super Bowl appearances – 5 wins)
San Francisco Playoff History: 36-23 (7 Super Bowl appearances – 5 wins)
Series History: The Cowboys lead the all-time series with a record of 19-18-1 against the 49ers. This is the 9^th time these teams have met in the playoffs. Dallas has won five of the eight postseason games.

Note: If the Cowboys are able to pull off the upset, they will have won the 37^th playoff game in the franchise’s history. That would tie them with the Patriots for the most in NFL history.

Croucher: Brock Purdy To Throw An Interception: Yes (-115)

The Cowboys have a top four rushing defense, particularly with Leighton Vander Esch back in the fold, and the Niners are going to have to throw in this game. The Cowboys’ defense is – by margin – the best Purdy has encountered to date. Purdy has been excellent at avoiding turnover worthy plays, but he is still, understandably, prone to occasional moments of madness, and should throw at least one pick in this game.

Dalzell: Ezekiel Elliott UNDER 35.5 Rushing Yards (-114)

The Cowboys running back totaled 27 rushing yards on 13 carries versus the Buccaneers and that was a positive game script. The 49ers are the NFL’s best defense. This season Zeke had run for 42 or more yards in 13-straight games…until the past three contests.

Elliott ran for 37, 10 and 27 rushing yards over those three games (74 yards) on 40 carries (1.85 ypc) with a longest rush of nine yards. There is no reason to back Elliott’s rushing total Over, especially when Tony Pollard posted 77 rushing yards on 15 carries against Tampa Bay.

Pollard had a higher snap share (56.7%) than Elliott last week (47.8%) and I expect that to continue versus the 49ers. I played Zeke Under 35.5 rushing yards and would go to 32.5 yards.

Jackson: Ezekiel Elliott UNDER 35.5 Rushing Yards (-114)

Ezekiel Elliott’s rushing prop is set at 34.5 which is extremely low, but I am taking the under (-110). He easily hit that number in his first 13 games this season. However, in Week 17 with Tony Pollard absent, he barely eclipsed it gaining just 37 yards on 19 carries. In his last two games he has rushed for 10 and 27 yards respectively. The 49ers are the best remaining run defense in football giving up 77.7 yards per game and are coming off a game in which Kenneth Walker rushed for 63 yards. It could be an ugly game for Zeke.

The team at NBC Sports EDGE has you covered with the latest in best plays and player news from Wild Card Weekend through to Super Bowl LVII. Now, all premium tools for Fantasy and Betting are included in one subscription at one low price. Customers can subscribe to NBC Sports EDGE+ monthly for $9.99. Click here to learn more!

Super Bowl squares 2023: Explanation, how to play, rules and printable template

By Kyle LynchFeb 12, 2023, 12:00 PM EST

Star quarterbacks Patrick Mahomes and Jalen Hurts are set to go head-to-head today, Super Bowl Sunday, when the Kansas City Chiefs take on the Philadelphia Eagles in Super Bowl LVII.

Even if you’re home watching on the couch, you can still get in on the action by filling out your squares, which has become a Super Bowl tradition.

What are Super Bowl squares and what is the format?

A board features 10 rows and 10 columns, adding up to 100 squares total. One of the teams is assigned the rows, while the other team is assigned the columns.

Each person in the pool then chooses one (or multiple) squares, depending on your pool’s rules. In some pools, squares are randomly assigned, while you may choose your own square in other pools.

After all the squares have been filled, numbers between zero and nine are randomly chosen for each row and column.

How do Super Bowl squares work? How do I win?

Each square has a corresponding row and column number. At the end of each quarter, the player whose two numbers match the end digits of each team’s point total will win.

For example, if the score at the end of the first quarter is Chiefs 13, Eagles 7, the player whose box corresponds with “3” for Kansas City and “7” for Philadelphia would win.

Most pools pay out for the final score at the end of each quarter, for a total of four winners (1st quarter, halftime, 3rd quarter, final score). Some pools pay out for every score throughout the game.

Where can I find a template for Super Bowl squares?

NBC Sports has provided a template below, complete with a 10 by 10 grid. Fans can click here to print this template out to use for their Super Bowl squares.

How can I watch and live stream Super Bowl 2023?

When: Sunday, February 12, 2023
Where: State Farm Stadium in Glendale, Arizona
TV Channel: FOX
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Marry Your Passion With Your Curiosity: Panelists Discuss Building Your Brand in Leadup to Super Bowl LVII

By Alexis DavisFeb 11, 2023, 12:07 PM EST

Fans in every color jersey of the rainbow internationally will tune into Super Bowl LVIII this Sunday. Ahead of the game, NBCU Academy partnered with PNE Showcase and Arizona State University to bring students and professionals an inside look at the people who color outside the lines for the National Football league.

The three powerhouses co-hosted the Building and Being Your Brand seminar in hopes of helping students and other national professionals identify their brand and the best ways to communicate the pillars of their brand to the masses.

There are just under 4,000 people employed by the NFL, which makes for hundreds of job paths within the league. As the panel began, NFL international marketing and player relations manager Emily Wirtz spoke about how her roots in Germany translated into the role she has now.

The first door opened for Wirtz in the NFL was as a digital video editor and producer. Wirtz transparently admitted she did not feel qualified for the job but with an extra push from her father, she decided to still go after the interview.

“My dad told me that even if I do not land the job, it will at least be good interview practice,” Wirtz said.

RELATED: How to watch Super Bowl 2023

Wirtz still thanks her father to this day. Her video supervisor learned she spoke German and instantly recommended her for a role within the NFL’s global expansion. She would go on to execute the first NFL game in Germany. Germany’s first official exposure to American football at the highest level sold out of millions of tickets in three minutes.

“When we are on the way to these international games in London, Germany and Mexico City, the NFL staff, we’re usually on a big bus or van,” Wirtz said. “In the van it’s about 40 of us and we’re literally trying to find a fan in one of the jerseys of all 32 teams. When we see someone we are like Chargers, Rams or whatever the team is! Every international game I’ve been to, all 5, we’ve been able to spot someone in each jersey.”

By showing up as her authentic self, Wirtz was able to leverage her job. All five of the panelists promoted a “helmet-off” approach to the game. This idea promotes getting to know the stories of the players to help advance the game.

Director of NFL college and club social marketing Sana Merchant-Rupani discussed taking on tasks that require you to grow. Before joining the league, Merchant-Rupani worked in digital marketing at Empire State Realty Trust. In the position, she was tasked with creating an Instagram presence for the company.

Merchant-Rupani had no experience with Instagram when taking on this task but it directly led her into her current role.

“You have to marry your passion with your curiosity,” Merchant-Rupani said.

Senior manager of NFL game operations Karley Berry further emphasized Merchant-Rupani’s message by presenting the contrast. Berry posited that if a job is presented to someone and they check off all the job requirements, then the job is not for them.

The entire audience was initially confused by the statement but as Berry went on, she explained you must take a job that will offer you something new and will leave you with an extra skill you did not have going into the position.

Prior to stepping into the game operations realm, Berry took her first step into the football world when she was a recruiting assistant at Penn State University.

Growing up around Nittany Lion football her entire life, she knew the brand of the university’s football team. While in State College, PA, she challenged the recruitment staff to go after men with outstanding character.

“When we would go on home visits, I would make sure to pay attention,” Berry said. Berry wanted to be intentional with her tactics and believed the best players were those that were good people on and off the field.

Merchant-Rupani, Berry and Wirtz all used elements of their personal brand to succeed in their current spaces to get to their dream work destination. This message was passed on to the audience through painting their journey through experiences.

“We all know about Patrick Mahomes. There are other stories,” senior manager of NFL social marketing Jordan Dolbin said.

RELATED: Chiefs Super Bowl history

Dolbin called on storytellers to push their limits. She wanted to ensure she was challenging audience members to go beneath the surface of the performers with the best stat numbers.

She brought up a story she came across during her Super Bowl preparation that was a “where are they now’ approach to telling the stories of all the players that caught interceptions against Maholmes in high school.

“Now, that is the story I will remember when this is all over,” Dolbin said.

Cincinnati Bengals special teamer Trayveon Williams added his experience to the panel, emphasizing exploring his other interests outside of football. He also commended today’s players for the tenacity in their approach to leaving a legacy outside of football.

The panel agreed collectively their main reason for taking time away from all the Super Bowl work obligations and festivities was to provide the representation they did not see while carving out their career paths.

NBCU Academy will be virtually hosting the Next Level Summit on March 22, 2023.

Author’s Note: Alexis Davis is currently in her last semesters in Walter Cronkite’s School of Journalism and Mass Communication at Arizona State University. She received her bachelor’s from North Carolina A&T State University in multimedia journalism in May 2022. Davis is a featured writer for the MEAC conference. Davis also switches between play-by-play announcer, analyst and sideline reporter for the PAC-12 conference’s app. She also hosts a podcast focusing on international basketball players and their fashion experiences called What’s in Your Bag?