Betting stats are provided by BetMGM.*
Takeaways from Week 5
Last week answered some questions in the Big Ten – namely, that Michigan is the real deal, Wisconsin’s athletic department has had enough, and Michigan State is worse off than we thought.
The biggest news of the week is Paul Chryst’s surprise firing by Wisconsin after the team’s 34-10 loss to Illinois, which brought their season record to 2-3. Chryst was reportedly blindsided and multiple members of the team, including star running back Braelon Allen, posted messages of support for their former coach.
Anyone who wanted Coach Chryst gone isn’t a part of this team.
— Braelon Allen (@BraelonAllen) October 3, 2022
Defensive coordinator Jim Leonhard, long seen as a rising star in the coaching ranks, will serve in that role on an interim basis for the remainder of the season. Leonhard and the Badgers have a pair of winnable road games the next two Saturdays at Northwestern and Michigan State – Wisconsin should be favored in each. Winning those two games could help begin calming the Wisconsin faithful.
Questions arose about Michigan after the Wolverines eked out a sloppy home win against Maryland in Week 4, but the team responded well, earning its first win at Iowa since 2005. Jim Harbaugh’s squad methodically wore down the stout Iowa defense with a persistent run game led by junior RB Blake Corum. After turning the ball over twice against Maryland, quarterback J.J. McCarthy rebounded to enjoy a turnover-free outing in Iowa City.
Meanwhile, Michigan State did not rebound from its recent struggles, losing its third straight game in a road tilt at Maryland. The Spartans move to 2-3 with no wins in conference play, a stark contrast to earlier expectations that ranked the team in the top 15 for the first three weeks of the season.
Previews and Predictions for the Biggest Games of Week 6
No. 3 Ohio State likely to stay unbeaten at Michigan State (OSU -27, o/u 64.5)
Best Bets: Ohio State -27, Over 64.5
The Buckeyes (5-0) have yet to face anything remotely close to a formidable opponent this season. That streak is expected to continue as Ohio State takes its high-powered offense on the road to East Lansing for their first road game of the season. To put it mildly, expect Michigan State’s (2-3) struggles to continue against arguably the top offense in the nation.
Ohio State head coach Ryan Day was quick to give Michigan State its due earlier this week: “It’s going to be hard to win up there,” he said. “We’re expecting a top ten team… well coached, really good players.”
Speaking of good players, Buckeyes QB C.J. Stroud’s case for Heisman is getting stronger by the week. Day says the prospect of an individual award doesn’t affect the team’s gameplan, nor Stroud’s mindset. “I think what C.J. would tell you is that all he wants to do is win.”
After three consecutive losses, that’s all Michigan State coach Mel Tucker wants, too. On Tuesday, he called the Spartans’ loss to Maryland a “death of inches.” He noted that he felt the defense played better in the second half of that game and that he’s seeing improvements in practice. “Our best football is ahead of us.”
That may be so, but it’s unlikely that even Michigan State’s very best football will faze Ohio State this week.
Prediction: With Michigan State having issues on both sides of the ball, Ohio State shouldn’t face much resistance this week. The Buckeyes cover -27 and even without much offense from Michigan State, expect the Over of 64.5 to be in play.
No. 4 Michigan faces Indiana in second straight road conference game (Mich. -22.5, o/u 59.5)
Best Bets: Indiana +22.5, Over 59.5
Michigan (5-0) is on the road for the second straight week, this time against an Indiana team (3-2) that’s coming off two consecutive losses to Cincinnati and Nebraska. After its impressive win at Iowa, Michigan will look to continue Week 5’s execution on offense.
Michigan coach Jim Harbaugh called the Hoosiers a “really good challenge” on Monday, saying he expects Indiana to throw the ball a lot as they have all season and to make the Michigan offense work for every yard. “Defensively, they’re really good. They mix things up a lot.”
The Indiana passing game Harbaugh expects will hinge on the health of a couple players. Both of the team’s top wide receivers, Cam Camper (illness) and D.J. Matthews (hamstring), were out last week when the Hoosiers lost to Nebraska. Head coach Tom Allen says both will be game-time decisions this weekend. Camper and Matthews have combined for 50 catches and over 600 yards this season.
Prediction: Michigan wins this one easily, but a backdoor cover by the Hoosiers is not out of the question. The Wolverines have given up a combined 41 points in the last two weeks, including 14 to the conference’s (and one of the nation’s) most ineffective offense in the Iowa Hawkeyes. Michigan is also in a potential letdown spot with this game sandwiched between Iowa and No. 10 Penn State, who comes to Ann Arbor next week.
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