1. I think, if I were Miami GM Chris Grier, and I liked Joe Burrow clearly above all other quarterbacks this year, I’d call the Bengals and offer four first-round picks for Cincinnati’s first overall pick. I think, if I were Cincinnati owner Mike Brown, I’d say no—under one important condition.
2. I think, now that you’d like to have me committed, here’s my logic:
Miami owner Stephen Ross has made it priority one in the organization to find the next Dan Marino, or at least some reasonable facsimile. At all costs, a franchise quarterback must be procured. Pronto.
Miami holds the fifth, 18th and 26th picks in the first round of this year’s draft, and two first-round picks next year.
Trading 5, 18, 26 and one of next year’s first-rounders (let’s estimate the 16th pick in the draft) would leave Miami over the next two drafts with one pick in the first round and four in the second round.
If you’re Grier, and you’ve got questions about Tua Tagovailoa’s long-term health or Justin Herbert’s upside, the sensible thing is to use a huge chunk of the draft capital you’ve accumulated for the purpose of being sure you’ve got the long-term quarterback you think is clearly the best one in a good class.
As for the Bengals, the only way I say yes to the deal is if Herbert or Tagovailoa is 1b to Burrow’s 1a. They’d have to be very close. If they are, and if the Dolphins make my fictitious offer, the Bengals should do the deal. I’ve heard there are some inside the Bengals who are true believers in Herbert, and if so, such a deal could be intelligent for Cincinnati. But we’ll see how it goes. Burrow has the toughness and ability and mental acuity to be a very good long-term quarterback.
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