How NFL is likely to handle a Robert Kraft punishment

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Friday evening, an estimated 8.15 million American TV viewers heard anchor Lester Holt lead the NBC Nightly News this way: “Breaking news tonight … Shock waves as the billionaire owner of the New England Patriots, Robert Kraft, is charged in a day-spa prostitution sting.”

On Saturday morning, the 4 million subscribers (newspaper and web) to the New York Times read this headline above the fold on the front page: “Patriots Owner Facing Charges After Sex Sting.” That’s commissioner Roger Goodell’s morning paper. Inside, in the lead story of the Times sports section, respected NFL correspondent Ken Belson wrote: “However the case is resolved, the episode is an embarrassment to a league that likes to portray itself as a pillar of moral rectitude but has struggled to shake an image that its players, employees and team owners treat women poorly.”

“KRAFT FACES CHARGES OF SOLICITATION,” blared the front page of Kraft’s hometown Boston Globe, which landed on newsstands all over his beloved six-state New England region.

The NFL’s Personal Conduct Policy mandates that owners and club officials “will be subject to more significant discipline” for violations of the policy and reads: “Everyone who is part of the league must refrain from conduct detrimental to the integrity of and public confidence in the NFL.”

Prostitution. Sex trafficking. Video evidence of Kraft’s involvement, according to police. The most negative of headlines and news coverage, focused on one of the most important owners in recent league history, on the steward of the franchise that has won more Super Bowls in one era (six) than any franchise in league history … and leading the news on a day with Washington imploding. Add to that the specter of the NFL’s incessant recruitment of women as fans and consumers and fantasy football players, and add to that the feeling by many in the outer boroughs of the league that Kraft is especially close to the league office. It just ratchets up the pressure on Goodell’s prospective judgment in the case. In Goodell’s 12-and-a-half years as commissioner, he hasn’t faced a situation like this one. Which makes it difficult to forecast what Goodell will do to Kraft, if the charges are true.

But there are clues.

Everything about the charge of Kraft on two occasions soliciting a prostitute—one used against her will in a case of human trafficking—has to be prefaced with “if.” The cases arising from a strip-mall spa in Jupiter, Fla., against a cadre of accused men have not been publicly proven, and we’re reminded by the Jussie Smollett case to let the facts surface before passing judgment. Police in Jupiter, Fla., have alleged Kraft twice frequented a spa accused of prostitution, and the police say they have incriminating video of Kraft. A spokesman for Kraft “categorically” denied involvement “in any illegal activity.” The league said it was aware of the case and was monitoring developments, the NFL’s euphemism for, “We’re buying time.” So that’s where it stands this morning.

But if the charges against Kraft prove to be true, I believe the Ray Rice precedent will come into play. And that would not be good news for Kraft. I believe if Kraft is found guilty, commissioner Roger Goodell couldn’t give Kraft a hefty fine alone. The problem with a fine of Kraft? The last sitting owner to be seriously sanctioned by Goodell, Indianapolis’ Jim Irsay, was suspended for six games and fined $500,000 for driving while impaired. That sort of fine, on its own, would be the ultimate slap on the wrist to a man Forbes says is worth $6.8 billion. To be exact, $500,000 would be one-fourteenth of 1 percent of Kraft’s worth. Next to nothing, really. That’s part of the reason why I believe Kraft, if he is guilty, is more likely than not to be suspended.

Think back to the Rice case in 2014. Rice, a Ravens running back, had an altercation with his fiancé at an Atlantic City hotel, and Goodell suspended Rice for two games. The light punishment was derided by the public—particularly women’s groups—and Goodell looked feckless when video of the altercation surfaced and showed Rice decking his fiancé with a single punch. The league revised its punishment, suspending Rice indefinitely, but by then it was too late. Goodell was ripped nationally for running an initially shoddy investigation of the case and for being soft on domestic violence.

So now, if Kraft is found to have used prostitutes being employed against their will in a human-trafficking scheme, the commissioner will have two choices:

  • Go light on Kraft if there’s no proof he knew the woman or women were employed against their will. That seems unlikely. When the NFL suspends players for using PEDs, even if the supplement was bought over the counter at a reputable vitamin store, players can’t use the excuse that they didn’t know a substance banned by the NFL was part of the supplement. Similarly, I doubt Goodell would accept a defense of “I didn’t know the women were part of a trafficking scheme.” Someone already involved in an illegal activity would not garner empathy for pleading ignorance there.
  • Give Kraft a significant sanction—a multi-week (or longer) suspension from all Patriots and league activities, and a fine. This would show the league taking a stand against the burgeoning American issue of human-trafficking (it is already the cause of highly respected Colts coach Frank Reich), as well as showing the public it won’t kid-glove a high-profile owner.

I think it would be the latter. Again, the case is still unproven, and it’s highly likely Goodell will wait to see the corroborating evidence.

But if found culpable, Kraft might be wise to suggest a third option. He has been generous to important causes, small and large. In addition to a multi-week suspension, he could agree to lead an NFL initiative to help fight human trafficking, and provide significant seed money for the project. That might be one way to limit the amount of long-term personal damage. Deadspin reported that Kraft already has supported the fight against human trafficking with a $100,000 donation in 2015 to the Boston-based “My Life My Choice,” which supports human-trafficking victims. This is a desperately needed cause in the United States and the world, and Kraft’s renewed backing of the fight could be crucial in the fight.

Some would suggest Kraft deserves to have his ownership of the team stripped. I don’t see that happening. When Carolina owner Jerry Richardson was accused by former staff members of sexual and personal improprieties late in 2017 by Sports Illustrated, Richardson stepped away from the team and sold the franchise six weeks before the NFL fined him for his actions. Harboring a culture of intimidation inside his organization, and pressuring multiple female employees for sexual-related favors over a period of years, as Richardson did, could have led to him being stripped of his team. But Goodell never had to rule on that because Richardson voluntarily stepped away.

What would wound Kraft deeply, if found guilty, is knowing that damage he’d have done to his name and his brand—and it would be the third strike against his dynasty. The Spygate scandal tarnished Bill Belichick in 2007 (costing him $500,000 and the team a first-round draft choice), and the Deflategate scandal in 2015 got Tom Brady suspended for four games and cost the team another first-round pick. Because this violation has nothing to do with the competitive aspects of football, it wouldn’t be subject to draft-pick penalty. Goodell would hand down a penalty he feels is just. But Kraft being found guilty would be the third strike against the best long-term team in modern football history, even though it would have nothing to do with football.

One last point: If Goodell has to rule on Kraft, it will be watched as closely as any recent ruling he’s made—by the football community and by women in many communities monitoring a business that has talked a good game about women but has not always walked the walk. It’d be naïve to think Goodell’s clumsy handling of Rice would not be brought up to him by a largely new staff of PR operatives inside the NFL. That matters.

For now, the legal process will play out, in Jupiter, Fla., and in New England and inside the NFL offices in New York, and the consequences to a surprising story will be mulled. “We’re as equally stunned as anyone else,” Jupiter police chief Daniel Kerr said Friday. He’s not alone.

Read more from Football Morning in America here

How Broncos’ Von Miller is taking his game to the next level

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Broncos: Englewood, Colo.
Saturday, July 20
Von Miller is the key to the Denver season

Late in the first padded practice of the year for the Broncos, Von Miller lined up on the defensive left edge, outside rookie tight end Noah Fant. Miller, suddenly 30, has always had a get-off stance similar to Lawrence Taylor’s, one foot back, leaning forward, threatening the inside but usually going outside, so you have to respect both. At the snap, he beat Fant outside and charged at rookie quarterback Drew Lock; it would have been sack in real life, but you don’t sack the quarterback in training camp. Next snap: Miller dropped three steps back into coverage, then pivoted quick and cut to his left, velcroing himself to an undrafted wideout, Romell Guerrier, in the slot. Lock, nothing there to his right, threw incomplete to the left side of the field.

The second play is more important to the 2019 Broncos, strangely enough.

The new coaching staff, led by pass-rush maestro Vic Fangio, has set out to make a very good player great at all things. Last year, Von Miller was not. He was sloppy. He got called for three encroachment penalties in the first half against the Niners late in the season and got yanked by coach Vance Joseph. PFF rated him the 16th-best edge-rusher in the game (low for him), 57th in coverage and 127th against the run. Numbers don’t lie. Miller was not a complete player last year. That was a significant factor in the Broncos sinking from third in team defense in 2017 to 22nd last year—and the dismissal of Joseph. Poll 32 offensive line coaches, and Miller might still be the most respected edge-rusher in the game. But in an era when edge-rush is all-important, it’s interesting to note that Miller, in eight seasons, has never won Defensive Player of the Year.

So why am I talking about blanket-covering Romell Guerrier in the slot? Because Fangio and his respected outside linebackers coach, Brandon Staley, are building Miller from the ground up, fundamental by fundamental. They know he can rush the passer, and know he can be better even at that. But they know he has to be better at the other aspects of the game, because he’s the defensive leader of the team, and other players follow him. If Miller’s working his footwork and his drops and coverage early in training camp, and that shows up at nighttime when practice tape gets dissected in front of the team, well, then Bradley Chubb and Derek Wolfe and all the new guys are going to see that and they’re going to work to be perfect too.

After practice, I said to Miller I thought that coverage play was a good example of the re-made Miller—and the respect he must have for Fangio early on.

“A hundred percent,” said Miller. “Just do the job you’re asked to do, coached to do, every play.”

More Miller: “I got a great coach here, one of the best coaches I’ve ever had in my life. We have great leadership here but he’s an outside linebacker guy. He’s coached a lot of great ones. I wanna be his greatest product yet. It’s the little things, like coach Fangio says. When you really focus on the little things it turns into a change of game. It turns into a whole different athlete. I bought into that. I bought into my outside linebackers coach as well, Coach Staley. He stays up super late thinking about how to make me better … I can really appreciate that. I bought into whatever those coaching points that they give me.”

Like this one on encroachment/offside. Miller has liked to take chances at the snap to get a millisecond of an edge. A myth, Fangio told his team one day. We had 60 sacks with the Panthers in 1996 and we jumped offside four times all season.

“Every player is going to have an assignment and a technique on every play,” said Staley, a rising coach under Fangio who came from Chicago with him. “If you can master those two things, then your beautiful instincts can take over. What Vic has taught Von—and with Vic, you’re talking about the Bill Walsh of outside linebackers, he’s had Kevin Greene, Rickey Jackson, Pat Swilling, Aldon Smith, Ahmad Brooks, Khalil Mack—is, ‘These are parts of your game we think can get better. And it will lead to more for you.’ That’s not a knock on Von. It’s a compliment. There’s another gear he can get to. And to Von’s credit, he has had a refreshing humility about being coached.”

Said Fangio: “Von’s been excellent, receptive from the beginning.”

The Broncos, coming off the 11-21 Joseph era, have been harped on by Fangio about the little things. Denver was seventh last year in turnover margin in the NFL; excellent, really, considering the top six made the playoffs. But the offense stumbled all season, and the lack of discipline on both sides (30th in penalties) crippled consistency. You’d think a defense with the bookend rush of Miller and Bradley Chubb and a secondary led by the great Chris Harris Jr., could make up for that, but they were 22nd in explosive plays allowed. Fangio watched tape of the season and couldn’t believe all the defensive breakdowns.

Fangio, getting acclimated to Denver over the past few months, has been to a few Nuggets and Rockies games. He loves talking to other coaches. Atlanta Hawks coach Lloyd Pierce and his staff attended Saturday’s practice.

“The details of each sport need to be tended to,” Fangio said, asked about lessons from his baseball manager friends Bud Black and Joe Maddon, and those in other sports. “And there’s team organization, team morale, maintaining the structure of a team where the individual is promoted so much. I like watching all games. Seeing the other games just solidifies to me that fundamentals is what wins. In a basketball game, a guy doesn’t box out correctly, and the other team scores on a putback. Baseball, they miss a cutoff, a run scores, you lose by one and it’s a huge play. Fundamentals is ultimately what causes you to win and lose.

“I think the other thing, and this has really been the case with Von, is players want the truth. Joe Maddon told me: ‘If I tell the truth to a player and he doesn’t like it, he’s gonna be mad for a couple days. If I lie to the player and he figures that out, he’s going to be mad at me forever.’ And rightfully so. We’re in this business to make people better, not gloss over things.”

At practice Saturday, the Denver radio host/FOX broadcaster/former NFL guard Mark Schlereth looked out at Miller during practice on a broiler of a Colorado morning. “I’ll make this prediction: Von’s sack numbers will go down, but he’ll be a better player at everything, and he’ll open it up for other guys on the defense. Derek Wolfe could have a career year with Von and Chubb being better at the total game. Von is like the Matrix; the things he can do athletically are not of this world. But now what I think Vic has done is impress on him that there’s no more freelancing. If one guy on the defense freelances, he f—- us all. Plus, we have to get out of this business of equating sacks with total success of a pass-rusher. It’s nonsense. Von can get 12 sacks and be the best pass-rusher in the league—playing the right way, he opens it up for 10 guys to make plays, and for this to be a complete defense.”

It’s a balancing act for Miller, who told me he wants to break Bruce Smith’s all-time sack record. Interesting numbers:

  • Bruce Smith, after his eighth NFL season, had 92 sacks entering his age-30 season. He finished his career with 200 sacks.
  • Miller, after his eighth NFL season, has 98 sacks entering his age-30 season.

So Smith got 108 sacks after his 30th birthday. “That’s encouraging, definitely encouraging,” Miller told me—but he also said he, like Fangio, is not going to make proclamations. Miller has become friends with Smith, who came to Miller’s Pass Rush Summit this year and spilled everything he had for Miller.

Ask those who have played with Miller and those who coach him now, and they’ll tell you he likes to be coached, and coached hard. If Miller takes it all in, Denver will be far better on defense, and the pressure on Joe Flacco to lead an explosive offense will be lessened. Miller knows what’s on his shoulders. It’s only the pressure of the 2019 Broncos season. He’s okay with that. Just a gut feeling here: Miller’s smart; he majored in Poultry Sciences at Texas A&M and has a big chicken/turkey production facility in Texas. He had a good presence at the Kentucky Derby doing TV for NBC with Dylan Dreyer on the network’s pre-race show. He gets it, though, that he needs to keep the big thing the big thing.

“I do a lot of stuff good,” Miller told me, “but the thing I do best is play football.” Fangio’s counting on that.

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These statistics prove DeAndre Hopkins is the NFL’s best receiver

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It was notable last week that the Madden NFL 20 game gave four players a near-perfect rating of 99: Aaron Donald, Khalil Mack, Bobby Wagner and DeAndre Hopkins. Donald is a no-brainer, Mack nearly one, Wagner as consistent a player as there is in football, and Hopkins—well, I dug into him a bit, and I love the honor bestowed by the Madden people. Hopkins is real, and he’s spectacular.

Let’s compare Hopkins to the all-world Julio Jones. The raw numbers paint a slight edge for Jones in 2018:

Jones: 113 catches, 1,677 yards, eight touchdowns, 104.8 receiving yards per game.
Hopkins: 115 catches, 1,572 yards, 11 touchdowns, 98.3 receiving yards per game.

The deeper numbers, per PFF:

• Jones dropped eight passes. Hopkins dropped none, which, since PFF began keeping official drop stats in 2006, was the most sure-handed season by far a receiver has had. No receiver in the last 13 years has 110 or more catches and zero drops in a season.

• Hopkins saw a “catchable but inaccurate” pass thrown his way 46 times in 169 total targets (27.2 percent of his targets), and he caught 35—meaning he caught 76 percent of all catchable but difficult passes. Jones had far fewer “catchable but inaccurate” balls thrown to him, just 23, and caught 14 of them. That’s 61 percent of balls caught by Jones on challenging throws.

What does it mean? Hopkins had a tougher job catching balls from Deshaun Watson than Jones had in dealing with Matt Ryan, and Hopkins did a more efficient job on the tough catches than Jones.

So Hopkins had far fewer drops than Jones, and he made far more tough catches.

Case closed: The best wide receiver in football in 2018 was Hopkins, and the Madden game recognized it.

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