The upside of having such a familiar presence as the top prop on the Super Bowl MVP odds is that there is value elsewhere that could be realized if there’s an unlikely outcome.
As one would expect, New England Patriots quarterback Tom Brady is a near even-money +110 favorite on the Super Bowl LIII MVP odds at sportsbooks monitored by OddsShark.com. The Los Angeles Rams’ Jared Goff, Brady’s counterpart QB in the matchup set for February 3 at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta, is the second favorite at +225.
Thirteen of the last 20 Super Bowl MVPs, or 65 percent, have indeed been quarterbacks – including Brady a record four times in his eight appearances – with wide receivers winning three times, linebackers three times and a defensive back once. But that is a slightly lower percentage than the league MVP award for the regular season, which has gone to a quarterback 14 times in the last 20 seasons, including 10 of the last 11.
Brady is the clear-cut favorite, with other Patriots offensive contributors such as Sony Michel (+1500), James White (+2000), Julian Edelman (+2500) and Rob Gronkowski (+3300) dispersed over the top half of the board on those Super Bowl prop bets.
Based on recent production and the fact that wide receivers have occasionally nabbed the honor, Edelman is probably the most justifiable longshot play. Given the Patriots’ emphasis on time of possession, it’s unlikely that defenders such as linebacker Kyle Van Noy (+10000) or defensive end Trey Flowers (+10000) will get enough opportunity to wrest the spotlight from Brady and cohorts.
If there is a sleeper wearing Rams blue and gold, it is likely defensive tackle Aaron Donald (+1800), who led the NFL in sacks during the regular season and will be counted on to force some disruptions in New England’s offense.
A running back has not won the award since Terrell Davis did so 21 seasons ago. The Rams’ Todd Gurley (+1100) and C.J. Anderson (+2500) present the biggest rushing threat New England, the favorite on the Super Bowl odds, has seen in the playoffs, but a job-share might work against getting MVP buzz during the game.
The Rams’ upset chances likely also rest somewhat on getting points off turnovers. Cornerbacks Aqib Talib (+8000) and Marcus Peters (+10000) are the picks that match up with that narrative.
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