Sunday NFL playoff odds: Patriots, Saints listed as favorites

Leave a comment

The matchup involves the New England Patriots and Tom Brady, at home, in January, with the prospect of nasty northeast weather – but then there’s also their opponent’s sterling record as an underdog.

The Patriots are 4-point betting favorites on the NFL odds against the Los Angeles Chargers with a 47.5-point total at sportsbooks monitored by OddsShark.com for their Divisional Playoff matchup at Gillette Stadium on Sunday afternoon.

The Patriots are 15-0 straight-up and 12-3 against the spread in their last 15 games as home favorites, according to the OddsShark NFL Database, and are also 7-3 ATS in their last 10 playoff games. However, the Chargers are 5-0 SU in their last five games on the East Coast, and are also 7-1 SU and ATS in their last eight games as an underdog of 4.5 or fewer points.

The Chargers, who are 13-4 SU and 10-7 ATS, did not need a great show of offensive proficiency to advance out of Wild Card Weekend, but quarterback Philip Rivers is one of the NFL’s best at the chunk play – passes thrown more than 20 yards downfield – and the Patriots, at least in the regular season, showed some vulnerability in their deep coverage.

The Chargers’ leading rusher, Melvin Gordon, is expected to be healthy to face a run defense that was 29th in opponents’ yards per carry (4.9).

How the Patriots, who were 11-5 SU and 9-7 ATS, go about their business barely needs introducing – they give Brady a tightly insulated pocket and work in a bruising running game. New England allowed just 21 sacks in the regular season but the Chargers have strong edge pass rushers in Joey Bosa and Melvin Ingram.

The Chargers boast a stout pass defense (7.1 yards per attempt) that particularly excels at taking away tight ends, so Rob Gronkowski could be limited, forcing Brady to find outside targets such as Julian Edelman. New England’s losses this season have come when their ground game was stifled, and the Chargers have an adequate run defense.

Weather could be a factor, and the total has gone UNDER in five of the Chargers’ last six games against the Patriots, with a combined score of 40.5 points. The total has also gone UNDER in eight of the Patriots’ last nine games, with an average combined score of 40.89 points.

Also Sunday, the New Orleans Saints are 8-point betting favorites against the Philadelphia Eagles with a 51.5-point total in their Divisional Playoff matchup. The Saints are 14-2 SU in their last 16 games at home, but just 2-8 ATS in their last 10 playoff games as the favorite. The Eagles are 1-4 SU and ATS in their last five games against the Saints.

The Eagles, who are 10-7 SU and 7-9-1 ATS after eking out a Wild Card Weekend win at Chicago, seem to be a changed team from the one that lost 48-7 against the Saints eight weeks ago. Quarterback Nick Foles has a matchup against a defense that was in the lower third of the league in stopping the pass, so the playoff-seasoned Eagles might be able to extend a trend of being 6-2 ATS in their last eight games in the playoffs on the road.

The Eagles’ by-committee backfield gets different conditions indoors at the Mercedes-Benz Superdome than at Chicago’s Soldier Field, but the Saints have the league’s No. 2-ranked run defense.

The Saints, 13-3 SU and 10-6 ATS, clearly rate the edge at quarterback since Drew Brees has been unstoppable in his climate-controlled home. While the Eagles seem sounder physically and schematically than they were in that Week 11 shellacking, Brees just has too many weapons – Michael Thomas, Alvin Kamara, just to name two – and an offensive line that allowed just 20 sacks should limit the Eagles’ capability of getting pressure with a four-man rush.

One reason why the Saints might not cover the touchdown-plus point spread, though, is that their rushing game has regressed while the Eagles have improved in this phase, which could mean the Saints end up being somewhat one-dimensional.

The total has gone UNDER in three of the Eagles’ last four games against the Saints, with an average combined score of 50.5 points. The total has gone UNDER in five of the Saints’ last seven games, with an average combined score of 42.14 points.

For more odds information, betting picks and a breakdown of this week’s top sports betting news check out the OddsShark podcast with Jon Campbell and Andrew Avery. Subscribe on iTunes or Spotify or listen to it at OddsShark.libsyn.com.

NFL fans apparently don’t want an 18-game regular season

Getty Images
Leave a comment

In the news this week, as the league gets back to business for the 100th season of American professional football:

• The owners and players meet Wednesday in another formal bargaining session for a new CBA. A three-day meeting is scheduled between the NFL’s Management Council and the NFLPA’s Executive Committee (a 10-player unit including president Eric Winston and VPs Richard ShermanBenjamin Watsonand Adam Vinatieri). This will be the fourth bargaining session between owners and players this spring/summer, with the hope being the two sides can reach an agreement on a new bargaining agreement in 2019. (The CBA has two more seasons to run, and expires in the spring of 2021.)

Commissioner Roger Goodell recently told CNBC that it is “certainly our intent” to try to get a new CBA before the start of the season. In a round of calls Saturday, I got some optimism from a team source who felt the chance of making a deal on a new CBA was 50-50 this year if the union would stick with the current economic formula of the game; currently players get about 47 percent of the game’s gross revenue.

But I talked to a source on the player side who wasn’t nearly as hopeful, in part because he felt the players need a bigger cut of the pie to agree to a new deal two seasons out from the end of the current CBA. This person called the first three meetings positive, but baby steps toward a deal. I do know that there have not been any significant discussions on a change in the revenue split yet. Those talks will have to progress for anything to get done.

• The 18-game schedule is nowhere near a reality. I heard that one or two teams are interested in what the Wall Street Journal reported Thursday the NFL has proposed discussing with the players as part of the CBA talks: an 18-game regular-season schedule, with each player eligible to play a maximum of 16 games. This is not a new idea—it’s been thrown around at league meetings as one idea to expand the inventory and enrich the league’s TV deals for years.

“I can’t see it,” one plugged-in club official told me. “Imagine you pay to see Tom Brady and the Patriots, and the Patriots announce that week it’s one of the two games he’ll sitting out this year. Now you’re seeing Brian Hoyer throw to some practice-squad guy. I don’t see any way we could ever do that.”

I’ve always thought in an era when the reduction of head trauma is job one in everything the league does, the only way the NFL could even consider 18 games is with teams playing players a maximum of 16 weeks. But the details make it too hard. How would a team divvy up the starts, say, for the starting offensive line? Would they figure the starting tackles should play every week with the starting quarterback, and thus doom the backup in his two games to a run-for-your-life offensive scheme?

The continued pursuit—or the continuing broaching—of an 18-game schedule is such a short-sighted and greedy thing. The NFL paid each team $275 million out of the league share of total revenue in 2018, and teams paid about $215 million annually in player costs (cap plus benefits). After that, teams can reap major raw profits over what they did in local team revenue.

Someone in the NFL seems determined to kill the most golden of geese by pursuing, even in a passing way, this stupid idea. Greed, in this case, is not good.

• Fans don’t want 18 games either. I put out a Twitter poll Saturday and Sunday, asking if readers preferred a 16 or 18-game schedule. Of 13,533 voters, 79 percent said 16. Great comment from a Vikings fan, Jason Altland: “If I pay out the nose for decent tickets in Baltimore or New York to see my Vikings, I want to see all the healthy stars play. I don’t want to pay and end up with a [Stefon] Diggs or {Adam] Thielen bye game.”

Pro Football Talk also polled its readers over the weekend about the 16/18-game idea, with more options than I offered … and 62 percent said they favored 16 games—with 8 percent saying they favored 18 with a maximum of 16 games per player per season.

Read more from Football Morning in America here

Why Melvin Gordon’s holdout with the Chargers could get ugly

Getty Images
Leave a comment

I think this Melvin Gordon-Chargers impasse could get ugly. The Chargers running back, entering his fifth season, could hold out from training camp into the season if he doesn’t get either a new contract or a significant raise from his $5.6-million salary in 2019. There’s a few reasons the holdout could last a while, starting with the fact that Chargers GM Tom Telesco, who grew up in the Bill Polian front office of the Colts, is not afraid to take a hard line. But mostly, it’s about what happens in recent years when teams have either paid runners or drawn a hard line with them. Examples:

• Le’Veon Bell balked at the Steelers’ offer of $14.5 million on the franchise tag last year. James Conner wasn’t quite as productive as vintage Bell—270 touches, 1,470 yards, 13 touchdowns—but he was close. And Conner, who made $754,572 last year, cost 1/19th of what Bell would have commended. No one in Pittsburgh is bemoaning the loss of Bell, though he’s a great player.

• Todd Gurley is a great back too, and the Rams paid a guaranteed $45 million last year. They’ll say they aren’t regretting what they paid Gurley, but an odd and persistent knee problem last year limited him to 88 carries in the Rams’ last nine games—including a 35-yard rushing performance in the Super Bowl. The Rams picked up C.J. Anderson off the street in December, and in five games, he rushed for 488 yards.

• David Johnson of the Cardinals responded to his new $13-million-a-year deal on the eve of the 2018 season by rushing for 940 yards (3.6 yards per carry).

• Devonta Freeman signed with Atlanta for $22 million guaranteed in 2017. He’s missed 16 of the Falcons’ last 32 regular-season games and averaged 58 yards per game in the 16 he’s played.

In 30 games over his two NFL seasons, Charger understudy Austin Ekeler has proven elusive and reliable, averaging 5.3 yards per rush and 10.3 yards per catch, with just two lost fumbles. I don’t think Telesco will be afraid to take the slings and arrows of a holdout. So if you’re drafting your fantasy team very early, I’d give a long look at Ekeler.

Read more from Football Morning in America here