The law of averages would suggest one betting favorite covers during the first set of NFL wild card playoff games this weekend, but it won’t be easy.
The Dallas Cowboys are 1.5-point favorites against the Seattle Seahawks on the NFL odds for Saturday with a 43-point total at sportsbooks monitored by OddsShark.com. While host teams are 11-3 straight-up in the last 14 wild card games, last season the favored team went 0-4 against the spread while the road team was 4-0 ATS.
The Seahawks, who are 10-6 SU and 9-5-2 ATS, are 11-2 ATS in their last 13 prime-time games as an underdog, as well as 22-5-1 SU in prime-time games with Russell Wilson as their quarterback. The Seahawks’ league-leading rushing attack will face a Dallas defense that allows the fifth-least yards per carry (3.8) in the NFL, but it shapes up as a more favorable matchup in the passing phase for Seattle with Wilson working behind a healthy offensive line that has guards DJ Fluker and JR Sweezy back.
The Cowboys are 10-6 SU and 9-6-1 ATS, including a record of 7-1 SU and 6-1-1 ATS over the second half of the regular season. Dallas will need a pass-run balance, through quarterback Dak Prescott and running back Ezekiel Elliott, in order to move the ball consistently against Seattle’s defense, especially since Dallas allowed the second-most sacks (56) in the NFL.
The total has gone OVER in seven of the Seahawks’ last eight games, according to the OddsShark NFL Database, with an average combined score of 53.88 points. The total has gone OVER in five of the Cowboys’ last seven games at home, with an average combined score of 45.0 points.
Meanwhile, the Houston Texans are 1-point betting favorites against the Indianapolis Colts with a 48.5-point total in the earlier Wild Card Weekend matchup on Saturday.
The Colts, 10-6 SU and 8-7-1 ATS this season, have some contrasting trends – 3-1 ATS in their last four games against Houston, but 1-4 SU and ATS in their last five playoff games on the road.
Andrew Luck was sacked a league-fewest 18 times and maintaining that protection will be critical against the Texans, who count on pass rushers Jadeveon Clowney and J.J. Watt to make up for middling coverage. Indianapolis enters the playoffs near the bottom of the Super Bowl odds at sportsbooks.
Houston allowed the fewest yards per carry (3.4) in the league so Luck might face a lot of long-yardage situations that push the game toward the UNDER.
The Texans, who went 11-5 SU and 7-7-2 ATS to win the AFC South, will be trying to shed the baggage that is being 1-3 SU and ATS in their last four playoff games. What might give bettors pause with the Texans is the 62 sacks and 126 quarterback hits, both league worsts, that quarterback Deshaun Watson took in the regular season.
If Houston can patch the protection issues in a matchup that is not shaping up to be an offensive shootout, then Watson and star wide receiver DeAndre Hopkins should have success against a Colts defense that, like the Texans, is more generous against the pass (7.4 yards per pass, 15th) than the run (3.9 yards per carry, eighth).
The total has gone UNDER in four of the Colts’ last five games against the Texans, with an average combined score of 44.8 points. The total has gone UNDER in five of the Colts’ last seven games, with an average combined score of 39.71 points.
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