In a rivalry game between wild-card playoff contenders, bettors need to make an educated guess on which trend is the anomaly – the Minnesota Vikings’ scoring struggles at home, or the Green Bay Packers’ rather abject road record.
The Vikings are 3-point favorites on the NFL Week 12 odds against the Packers with a 47.5-point total for Sunday night at sportsbooks monitored by OddsShark.com.
The seeming disparity in the quarterback matchup aside – $84-million man Kirk Cousins (zero career playoff wins) against future Hall of Fame pivot Aaron Rodgers – the Vikings are 6-1-1 straight-up in their last eight divisional games, while the Packers are 0-7 SU and 1-5-1 against the spread in their last seven road games, with an average losing margin of 10.29 points.
The Packers are 4-5-1 SU and ATS this season, which includes an 0-5 SU and 1-3-1 ATS away record. Rodgers has regularly kept the Packers in games and has a strong track record against Minnesota, but his offensive line is in the bottom third of the NFL at preventing sacks and the unit will be facing one of the NFL’s strongest pass rushes, led by defensive end Danielle Hunter.
Minnesota does allow 7.6 yards per pass so Rodgers’ regular targets, Davante Adams, Randall Cobb and Jimmy Graham, should find some openings in the pass coverage. The Packers, thanks to Aaron Jones, are quietly second in the NFL in yards-per-rush (5.1), but the Vikings allow the third-fewest yards per-rush (3.6).
The Vikings are 5-4-1 SU and 4-4-2 ATS, which includes being 2-2-1 both SU and ATS at home at U.S. Bank Stadium, according to the OddsShark NFL Database. The main reason for the latter figure is that the Vikings and Cousins are scoring 7.8 fewer points per game at home than on the road. Whether that changes comes down to whether Minnesota’s passing game, with Adam Thielen and Stefon Diggs as Cousins’ favorite outside targets, can generate some explosion plays against a Packers defense that allows 7.6 yards per pass.
Green Bay is 26th in run defense and allows a whopping 4.6 yards per rush, but Minnesota’s offensive line has had issues generating the push to spring running backs Dalvin Cook and Latavius Murray to the second level. With that said, the Vikings are a respectable 14-3-1 SU and 10-7-1 ATS in their last 18 games as a favorite.
Seven of this season’s 10 Sunday night games have gone UNDER the posted total. The total has gone UNDER in six of the Packers’ last eight games against the Vikings, with an average combined score of 40.25 points. The total has also gone UNDER in eight of the Vikings’ last 11 games at night.
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