The New England Patriots and Tom Brady have lost only two home games in November in the last 10 seasons, which leaves bettors to probe for signs that the Green Bay Packers and Aaron Rodgers can buck the trend.
The Patriots are 5.5-point betting favorites against the Packers with a 56.5-point total for Sunday Night Football at sportsbooks monitored by OddsShark.com.
Since 2009, the Patriots are 13-2 straight-up during home games in November and as far as recent trends go, the OddsShark NFL Database notes the Patriots are 11-0 SU and 9-2 against the spread in their last 11 home games, with an average winning margin of 14.82 points.
For all Rodgers’ near peerlessness as a pure passer, the Packers are 0-5 SU and 1-4 ATS in their last five road games, with an average losing margin of 11.0 points.
As so often seems to be the case, the Packers, who are 3-3-1 SU and 3-4 ATS, will be counting on Rodgers to make up for their deficiencies. Rodgers may get ample opportunity to extend plays against a Patriots defense that ranks eighth in the NFL in yards-per-pass allowed (7.1), but is 29th, fourth from bottom, with only 12 sacks.
Favorite target Davante Adams should also be able to find some busts in coverage. The Packers are quite efficient in the rushing phase with Jamaal Williams.
The total has gone OVER in seven of the Packers’ last eight night games, so it’s not hard to imagine Rodgers going touchdown for touchdown with Brady. It might be more of a question of whether Green Bay can keep up for the full four quarters.
The Patriots, who are 6-2 SU and 5-3 ATS, have been rolling since what seems to be their tradition slumbering start in September. Brady and his deep and versatile receiving corps that includes tight end Rob Gronkowski, wide receivers Josh Gordon, Chris Hogan and Julian Edelman and speedster Cordarrelle Patterson are facing a Packers defense that is 22nd in yards per pass allowed (7.7), even though its schedule has included the execrable Buffalo Bills offense.
Green Bay is also playing its first game since the trade of safety Ha Ha Clinton-Dix, a pass defender who would likely draw “Gronk detail.”
New England is 17-3 SU and 15-5 ATS in its last 20 home games as a favorite of 3.5 to 6.5 points (that is, between a field goal and a converted touchdown). Their strong offensive line will be without right guard Shaquille Mason (calf) as it faces a strong Packers interior pass rush led by nosetackle Kenny Clark and defensive end Mike Daniels, but it would probably take an uncharacteristic breakdown for that to throw New England off its game plan.
The total has gone OVER in seven of the Packers’ last eight road games, with an average combined score of 50.63. The total has also gone OVER in seven of the Patriots’ last 10 home games in November.
For more odds information, betting picks and a breakdown of this week’s top sports betting news check out the OddsShark podcast with Jon Campbell and Andrew Avery. Subscribe on iTunes or Spotify or listen to it at OddsShark.libsyn.com.