Sunday Night Football: Patriots, Brady betting favorites vs. Packers

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The New England Patriots and Tom Brady have lost only two home games in November in the last 10 seasons, which leaves bettors to probe for signs that the Green Bay Packers and Aaron Rodgers can buck the trend.

The Patriots are 5.5-point betting favorites against the Packers with a 56.5-point total for Sunday Night Football at sportsbooks monitored by OddsShark.com.

Since 2009, the Patriots are 13-2 straight-up during home games in November and as far as recent trends go, the OddsShark NFL Database notes the Patriots are 11-0 SU and 9-2 against the spread in their last 11 home games, with an average winning margin of 14.82 points.

For all Rodgers’ near peerlessness as a pure passer, the Packers are 0-5 SU and 1-4 ATS in their last five road games, with an average losing margin of 11.0 points.

As so often seems to be the case, the Packers, who are 3-3-1 SU and 3-4 ATS, will be counting on Rodgers to make up for their deficiencies. Rodgers may get ample opportunity to extend plays against a Patriots defense that ranks eighth in the NFL in yards-per-pass allowed (7.1), but is 29th, fourth from bottom, with only 12 sacks.

Favorite target Davante Adams should also be able to find some busts in coverage. The Packers are quite efficient in the rushing phase with Jamaal Williams.

The total has gone OVER in seven of the Packers’ last eight night games, so it’s not hard to imagine Rodgers going touchdown for touchdown with Brady. It might be more of a question of whether Green Bay can keep up for the full four quarters.

The Patriots, who are 6-2 SU and 5-3 ATS, have been rolling since what seems to be their tradition slumbering start in September. Brady and his deep and versatile receiving corps that includes tight end Rob Gronkowski, wide receivers Josh Gordon, Chris Hogan and Julian Edelman and speedster Cordarrelle Patterson are facing a Packers defense that is 22nd in yards per pass allowed (7.7), even though its schedule has included the execrable Buffalo Bills offense.

Green Bay is also playing its first game since the trade of safety Ha Ha Clinton-Dix, a pass defender who would likely draw “Gronk detail.”

New England is 17-3 SU and 15-5 ATS in its last 20 home games as a favorite of 3.5 to 6.5 points (that is, between a field goal and a converted touchdown). Their strong offensive line will be without right guard Shaquille Mason (calf) as it faces a strong Packers interior pass rush led by nosetackle Kenny Clark and defensive end Mike Daniels, but it would probably take an uncharacteristic breakdown for that to throw New England off its game plan.

The total has gone OVER in seven of the Packers’ last eight road games, with an average combined score of 50.63. The total has also gone OVER in seven of the Patriots’ last 10 home games in November.

 

For more odds information, betting picks and a breakdown of this week’s top sports betting news check out the OddsShark podcast with Jon Campbell and Andrew Avery. Subscribe on iTunes or Spotify or listen to it at OddsShark.libsyn.com.

 

 

Saturday NFL Division Round odds: Rams, Chiefs both betting favorites

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On top of concerns about how Jared Goff will fare against a true defensive test, the Los Angeles Rams have been less than convincing as a big home favorite in the last 12 months.

The host Rams, with Goff behind center, are 7-point favorites on the NFL odds against the Dak Prescott-led Dallas Cowboys with a 49.5-point total at sportsbooks monitored by OddsShark.com in a Divisional Round matchup at the Los Angeles Coliseum on Saturday.

The Rams’ loss at this stage of last season’s playoffs was the start of a stretch where they have gone 6-2 straight-up and 3-4-1 against the spread as a home favorite of 5.5 or more points. The OddsShark NFL Database also notes that the Cowboys are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games as the underdog.

The Cowboys, 11-6 SU and 9-7-1 ATS, seem well-constructed for traditional playoff football, and the fact that the total has gone UNDER in 10 of their last 12 road games, with an average combined score of 36.0 points, might augur well for their chances of hanging around if Goff struggles for the Rams.

Prescott will have to avoid turnovers, and he could have a depleted receiving corps with wide receiver Allen Hurns (leg/ankle) done for the year and slot receiver Cole Beasley (ankle) hurt, but running back Ezekiel Elliott is facing a defense that allowed an NFL-worst 5.1 yards per rush.

The Rams are 13-3 SU and 7-7-2 ATS, and had a tailspin late in the regular season. Between Goff having a regression and leading rusher Todd Gurley (knee) being limited in practice this week, there are concerns with their pivotal performer in each offensive phase, which could pile on to the uneasiness about the Rams being 0-5 ATS in their last five Saturday games.

Gurley and other Rams’ runners will contend with a Dallas run defense that was the league’s fifth-most proficient (3.8 yards per rush). The Rams are much healthier in Dallas in the receiving corps, with Robert Woods, Brandin Cooks and tight end Gerald Everett facing a team that allowed a pedestrian 7.4 yards per pass.

Also on Saturday, the Kansas City Chiefs are 5.5-point betting favorites against the Indianapolis Colts with a 57-point total in the early Divisional Round matchup.

The Colts are 11-6 SU and 9-7-1 ATS, which includes being 10-1 SU and 7-3-1 ATS over an 11-game run that has been distinguished by a proficient pass-run balance between quarterback Andrew Luck and running back Marlon Mack. Luck’s offensive line has allowed the fewest sacks in the league while the Chiefs, for all their defensive woes, tied for the league lead in the regular season, so someone will have to give.

Luck’s favorite receiver T.Y. Hilton has been nursing a sore ankle but is expected to play on Saturday. Mack is facing a team whose 5.0 yards per rush allowed was second-worst in the NFL.

The Chiefs are 12-4 SU and 9-6-1 ATS, and prolific young quarterback Patrick Mahomes and his supporting cast might be asked to win a scorefest. The narrative of the Chiefs being 1-11 SU and ATS in their last 12 games in the playoffs will be there until it isn’t, but what will be more relevant is that they also thrived at avoiding disruptions (26 sacks allowed) and the Colts lack a strong pass rush.

On the back end of the pass defense, the Colts could have their hands full with speedy wide receiver Tyreek Hill and Kansas City’s ability to use tight end Travis Kelce. Spencer Ware (hamstring) is Kansas City’s likely starter at running back.

Five of the Chiefs’ last six games have gone OVER at sports betting sites, with an average total of 65.6 points.

For more odds information, betting picks and a breakdown of this week’s top sports betting news check out the OddsShark podcast with Jon Campbell and Andrew Avery. Subscribe on iTunes or Spotify or listen to it at OddsShark.libsyn.com.

Bears, Ravens favorites on NFL wild card Sunday

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The playoffs are a different game, and so too are the Chicago Bears’ recent home trend vis-à-vis the team’s historic playoff trend.

The Bears are 6-point betting favorites on the NFL odds against the Philadelphia Eagles with a 41-point total in their NFC wild-card matchup on Sunday at sportsbooks monitored by OddsShark.com.

The Bears, who won the NFC North under rookie head coach Matt Nagy, are 5-0 straight-up and against the spread in their last five home games, but only 2-6 ATS in their last eight playoff contests, according to the OddsShark NFL Database. The Eagles, the defending Super Bowl champions, are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games in January.

The Eagles, 9-7 SU and 6-9-1 ATS this season, seem to be finding their groove behind quarterback Nick Foles and they did defeat a top-ranked defense during their 2017 Super Bowl run, handling the Minnesota Vikings in the NFC Championship Game. That was at home, though, and these 2018 Eagles aren’t as balanced offensively, with the ground game having the third-worst yards per carry (3.9) in the NFL after finishing fourth in 2017.

Back in the present, Chicago allowed the fourth-lowest rushing average (3.8) and led the league in fewest yards per pass (6.3) and interceptions (27).

The Bears, 12-4 SU and ATS, are more of a blank slate on offense since Trubisky, drafted to be a franchise quarterback, is making his playoff debut against a Super Bowl-seasoned team. But the second-year passer, whose supporting cast includes a diverse ground game with Tarik Cohen and Jordan Howard, should be able to pick his spots to really attack an Eagles defense that was 14th in yards per pass (7.4) allowed.

The total has gone UNDER at betting sites in the Bears’ last four games, with an average combined score of 29.75 points.

Meanwhile, the Baltimore Ravens are 3-point betting favorites against the Los Angeles Chargers with a 42-point total in an AFC wild-card matchup on Sunday. Since the 2011 season, the Ravens are 7-1 ATS in the playoffs.

The Chargers, who are 12-4 SU and 9-7 ATS, face a 10 a.m. Pacific time kickoff against a Ravens team that held them to 10 points in their home environment two weeks ago. Quarterback Philip Rivers has led them to a 6-0 SU record in their last six road games, but he and running back Melvin Gordon are facing a Baltimore defense that was third in both fewest yards per carry (3.7) and yards per pass (6.3).

The AFC North-winning Ravens are 10-6 SU and 8-8 ATS, finding their form in the second half of the season after rookie quarterback Lamar Jackson became the starter. Jackson faces a Chargers defense that is 12th in yards per rush (4.3) and ninth in yards per pass (7.1).

Trends-wise, the Ravens are just 1-5 ATS in their last six home games, with outright losses against the only two teams (New Orleans and Pittsburgh) that they faced who had winning records. Bettors face a choice between putting stock in the 7-1 ATS record Baltimore compiled under coach John Harbaugh from 2011 to 2014, or opting to fade the Ravens due to a 4-14 SU record in their last 18 games after consecutive wins.

The total has gone UNDER in the Ravens’ last six playoff games at home.

For more odds information, betting picks and a breakdown of this week’s top sports betting news check out the OddsShark podcast with Jon Campbell and Andrew Avery. Subscribe on iTunes or Spotify or listen to it at OddsShark.libsyn.com.