4 reasons why there are more trades than there used to be at the NFL trading deadline

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Reasons why there are more trades than there used to be at the NFL trading deadline:

1. In 2012, the league moved the deadline from the Tuesday after Week 6 to the Tuesday after Week 8. More teams (Giants, Raiders, for instance this year) know they can punt the season with the deadline two weeks later.

2. GMs and club presidents are more aggressive than the last generation of traditional front-office people. Howie Roseman (Eagles), Les Snead (Rams), Chris Ballard (Colts), John Lynch (Niners), John Schneider (Seahawks), Bob Quinn (Lions) are young, and they’re restless.

3. You can trade Compensatory Picks now; this is the second year it’s been legal to do so. So there are, potentially, about 38 more draft choices that teams can move, or conditionally move. Why does this matter? The Patriots, for instance, have four regular picks in the first three rounds of the 2019 draft—but that doesn’t include the additional two they’re scheduled to receive for the losses of big-money free-agents Nate Solder and Malcolm Butler. So they know they have six picks in the top three rounds, which could make them more aggressive, say, for a cornerback this week.

4. Teams are living for today more than they used to. GMs have begun treating trading like baseball teams at the deadline—if they can solve a problem for the last nine weeks of the season, they’re not as worried about 2019 and beyond. Witness Dallas with Amari Cooper. Witness Detroit with Snacks Harrison. Nothing in the future is promised. The Cowboys and Lions are driving for the playoffs this year; they’ll worry about next year next year.

A few teams I’m hearing about:

• Denver could well be a seller—and wants to be, after falling to 3-5 on Sunday in Kansas City. Chief targets: wideout Demaryius Thomas, who turned 31 Thursday, could probably be had for a third-round pick, and defensive end Shane Ray and linebacker Brandon Marshall could move too. Less likely: cornerback Bradley Roby.

• The Rams, speaking of “baseball trades,” want a pass-rusher. I hear defensive coordinator Wade Phillips is lukewarm on Denver’s Ray (having coached him two years ago), and if the Jags make disappointing high first-round pick Dante Fowler Jr., available, the Rams would have interest. L.A. is unlikely to deal swing guard Jamon Brown for a late-round pick, though there’s been interest. He’s a low-cost insurance guy for the line.

• Oakland, which owns first-round picks from Dallas and Chicago as well as its own, could have three picks in the top 20 (let me guess: 3, 15, 18) and might not be done dealing. I would not be surprised to see pass-rusher Bruce Irvin moved, and the organization has soured on 2017 first-rounder Gareon Conley, the disappointing cornerback.

• The Giants could deal cornerback Janoris Jenkins, who still has some value despite inconsistent play and being owed $3.5 million for the rest of this year with an $11.15-million-salary-plus-roster-bonus deal next year, per Over The Cap. They’d like to keep their young offensive core together. Eli Manning? It makes too much sense to deal him to Jacksonville for a pittance in the wake of another poor performance by Blake Bortles on Sunday in London, but there’s no indication Manning would waive his no-trade clause. 

• The Colts, showing life the last two games, would like to add a receiver. But I don’t believe they will do anything to affect their draft status next April; picks are too important to GM Chris Ballard.

• San Francisco: Multiple reports say wide receiver Pierre Garcon could be dealt. It makes sense because the Niners will be all in on the 2019 draft and season. That is when Jimmy Garoppolo will be a factor again and this organization is all about building around their franchise quarterback, knee surgery and all.

You can read more of Peter King’s Football Morning in America here

Sunday Night Football odds: Bears slim favorites hosting rival Vikings

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A first-place showdown in the NFC North is a study in contrast twice over, with a young Chicago Bears team trying to buck a long-term betting trend, while the more seasoned Minnesota Vikings try to maintain one.

The Bears, with the rookie head coach / second-year quarterback combo of Matt Nagy and Mitchell Trubisky, are 2.5-point favorites on the Sunday Night Football odds against the Vikings with a 44.5-point total at sportsbooks monitored by OddsShark.com.

The first-place Bears are 5-1-1 against the spread in their last seven home games against teams with winning records, but since 2012 they are 4-6 straight-up and 3-6-1 ATS as a home favorite of 3.0 or fewer points. For what it might be worth, over that same span the Vikings are 8-2 both SU and ATS in 10 games as a road underdog, according to the OddsShark NFL Database.

Minnesota is also on a 6-0-1 SU run over its last seven games against NFC North counterparts.

The Vikings, who are 5-3-1 SU and 4-3-2 ATS, are firmly in the middle of the NFL pack in offensive proficiency after betting big on quarterback Kirk Cousins in free agency. Minnesota has had turnover issues and the fourth-ranked Bears defense, built around outside linebacker Khalil Mack, thrives at takeaways and creating opportunities for points off of turnovers.

Minnesota expects to have both of its top two wide receivers, Stefon Diggs (ribs) and Adam Thielen, healthy, as they try to break down a Bears pass defense whose 6.8 yards per attempt is the third-best in the league.

While a bye in Week 10 might have given Minnesota extra time to work on their ground game with Dalvin Cook and Latavius Murray, they are only 2-6 ATS in their last eight post-bye week games. The Bears lead the league with 3.6 yards per rush allowed, which mean Cousins will likely face his share of obvious passing downs.

The Bears, who are 6-3 SU and ATS on the season, are on roll behind Trubisky, a quarterback in the modern mold who can create havoc for defenses with his arms and legs. Whether the Bears continue a trend of being 8-2 ATS in their last 10 home games against the Vikings, a team they play twice a season, will come down to whether Trubisky will keep his wits about him against a fifth-ranked Vikings defense whose 31 sacks are second in the NFL.

The Bears have the benefit of having a cadre of receivers – Allen Robinson, Taylor Gabriel and Anthony Miller out wide; Trey Burton at tight end; and Tarik Cohen coming out of the backfield – whose varying skillsets could force Minnesota into a guessing game.

Bettors will have to decide whether the fact the Vikings allow a full yard per pass, 7.8 yards, more than the Bears speaks more to scheme or health. Defensive stalwarts such as nose tackle Linval Joseph, defensive end Everson Griffen, cornerback Xavier Rhodes, linebacker Anthony Barr and safety Andrew Sendejo are all expected to be available after missing games. Despite those injuries, Minnesota played the run well, allowing 3.6 yards per rush, a close fourth in the league rankings.

The total has gone UNDER in eight of the Vikings’ last 10 games at night. The total has gone UNDER in seven of the Vikings’ last nine games against the Bears, with an average combined score of 38.33 points. The total has gone OVER in five of the Bears’ last six games, with an average combined score of 54.33 points.

For more odds information, betting picks and a breakdown of this week’s top sports betting news check out the OddsShark podcast with Jon Campbell and Andrew Avery. Subscribe on iTunes or Spotify or listen to it at OddsShark.libsyn.com.

NFL Week 11 odds: Rams, Seahawks, Bears all betting favorites

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The NFL’s top two teams have decidedly different trends in Monday night contests.

The Los Angeles Rams, led by quarterback Jared Goff, are 3.5-point betting favorites against the Kansas City Chiefs with a 63-point total on the NFL odds for Monday at sportsbooks monitored by OddsShark.com.

The Rams are 1-7 straight-up and 2-6 against the spread in their last eight games on a Monday, as well as 5-12 SU and 4-12-1 ATS in their last 17 games at night, although much of that was compiled before coach Sean McVay came on the scene. The Chiefs, led by MVP candidate Pat Mahomes, are 7-2 ATS in their last nine games on a Monday, as well as 7-2 SU and 8-1 ATS in their last nine games as an underdog.

Elsewhere this week, the Seattle Seahawks are 3-point favorites on the NFL Week 11 odds against the Green Bay Packers with a 48.5-point total in a Thursday matchup. The Packers are 0-6 SU and 1-5 ATS in their last six road games, with an average losing margin of 11.5 points. The Seahawks are 7-0-1 ATS in their last eight games on a Thursday.

The Houston Texans are 3-point road favorites against the Washington Redskins with a 42.5-point total. The Texans are 4-10 ATS in their last 14 games. The total has gone UNDER in 10 of the Texans’ last 14 games after a bye. The Redskins are 6-2 SU and ATS in their last eight home games.

The Atlanta Falcons are 3-point favorites against the Dallas Cowboys with a 48.5-point total. The Cowboys, who defeated the Philadelphia Eagles during Week 10, are 0-5 SU in their last five games after a win. The total has gone UNDER in eight of the Cowboys’ last nine road games, according to the OddsShark NFL Database, with an average combined score of 33.0. The Falcons are 4-10 ATS in their last 14 games in the early afternoon.

The Indianapolis Colts are 2-point favorites against the Tennessee Titans with a 48.5-point total. The Titans are 6-0 SU and ATS in their last six games against divisional opponents. The total has gone UNDER in 12 of the Colts’ last 17 home games, with an average combined score of 43.41.

The Pittsburgh Steelers are 5.5-point road favorites against the Jacksonville Jaguars with a 47-point total. The Steelers are 9-0-1 SU in their last 10 road games, with an average winning margin of 7.9 points. The total has gone UNDER in 11 of the Jaguars’ last 15 games in the early afternoon.

The New Orleans Saints are 8.5-point betting favorites against the Philadelphia Eagles with a 56-point total. The Eagles are 2-6 ATS in their last eight games. The Saints are 7-0 ATS in their last seven games. The total has gone OVER in 13 of the Saints’ last 17 games in the late afternoon.

And the Chicago Bears are 2.5-point favorites against the Minnesota Vikings with a 45-point total in the Sunday night matchup. The total has gone OVER in five of the Bears’ last six games, with an average combined score of 54.33. The Vikings are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 road games against the Bears.

For more odds information, betting picks and a breakdown of this week’s top sports betting news check out the OddsShark podcast with Jon Campbell and Andrew Avery. Subscribe on iTunes or Spotify or listen to it at OddsShark.libsyn.com.