Chiefs, Mahomes face Bengals as betting favorites on Sunday Night Football

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While Patrick Mahomes is making his first NFL start after a loss, his Kansas City Chiefs have a proven track record as both a bounce-back team and a peak performer in prime-time.

The Chiefs, led by their first-year starter at quarterback, are 6-point favorites on the Sunday Night Football odds against the Cincinnati Bengals with a 58-point total at sportsbooks monitored by OddsShark.com.

Kansas City is coming off a 43-40 loss against the New England Patriots, but it is 10-4 straight-up in its last 14 games after a loss. The Chiefs are 9-3 SU and 10-2 against the spread in their last 12 games at night, whereas the Bengals are 2-8 SU in their last 10 prime-time games.

The Bengals, who are 4-2 SU and ATS this season, have a balanced offense centered around quarterback Andy Dalton that will be going up against a Chiefs defense that is dead last in total defense, allowing the most yards per game. With Kansas City linebacker Justin Houston (hamstring) and free safety Eric Berry (heel) both doubtful for this week, playmakers such as wide receiver A.J. Green and running back Joe Mixon should help Cincinnati, at minimum, do its part to help OVER bettors.

However, the Bengals defense is the fourth-most generous in the league and will need to try to take advantage of a rejigged Chiefs offensive line that has lost two key starters, center Mike Morse and guard Laurent Duvernay-Tardif.

The Bengals won outright in their last road game during Week 4 and are 12-3-1 ATS in their last 16 games on the road according to the OddsShark NFL Database after covering in their most recent road game. Since 2015, Cincinnati is also 1-6 SU and 4-3 ATS as a road underdog of 3.5 to 6.5 points.

The Chiefs, who are 5-1 SU and 6-0 ATS, have been a sight to behold offensively. Mahomes, arguably the league MVP over the first third of the regular season, commands an offense that is first in points scored, fifth in total yards and third in yards per pass. One key to the Chiefs being such a point machine is that they have rarely been stalled by interceptions and sacks, suffering only 10 through six games.

That’s hard to sustain, so bettors will have to decide whether the Chiefs are due for some lapses or whether the Bengals, who may not have outside linebacker Nick Vigil or strong safety Shawn Williams (concussion protocol), will be hard-pressed to force drive-killing mistakes.

Cincinnati is 24th in yards per rush allowed and 11th in yards per pass allowed, but it has had trouble covering outside receivers and running backs. That means there could be some long gains from the Chiefs’ Tyreek Hill and Kareem Hunt. The Chiefs are 8-2 SU and 6-4 ATS in their last 10 home games as a favorite of 3.5 to 6.5 points.

The total has gone OVER in five of the Bengals’ last seven games, with an average combined score of 55.71. The total has gone UNDER in six of the Chiefs’ last seven games at home, with an average combined score of 43.43.

For more odds information, betting picks and a breakdown of this week’s top sports betting news check out the OddsShark podcast with Jon Campbell and Andrew Avery. Subscribe on iTunes or Spotify or listen to it at OddsShark.libsyn.com.

Patriots settle as small favorites on Super Bowl odds 2019

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For all the narratives that can hang off the great Tom Brady and Super Bowl first-timer Jared Goff, two of the big moving parts in the matchup on Super Sunday involve the rushing phase.

The New England Patriots have settled as 2.5-point favorites on the Super Bowl odds 2019 against the Los Angeles Rams with a 56.5-point total at sportsbooks monitored by OddsShark.com in the Super Bowl 53 matchup slated for Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta on Sunday.

The Bill Belichick- and Brady-led Patriots are 6-2 against the spread in their last eight games as a favorite of 3.0 or fewer points, according to the OddsShark NFL Database, while the Rams are 4-3 straight-up and ATS in their last seven games as an underdog. Interestingly enough, underdogs are 13-4 ATS in the last 17 Super Bowl games.

As so often happens, the last two teams standings are in good health. The biggest exception for New England, whose run defense has been league-average much of the season, is that defensive tackle Malcom Brown (calf) was limited in practice. The Rams claim leading rusher Todd Gurley (left knee inflammation) is 100 per cent after he had only five touches during the NFC championship game two weeks ago.

Backing the Patriots, who are 13-5 SU and 11-7 ATS on the year, involves putting stock in Brady and cohorts’ abundant Super Bowl experience, along with the fact the offense has been at peak form, averaging 38.7 points and 465.7 yards per game over its last three outings.

The Patriots’ offensive line will arguably be the unofficial playoff MVP, collectively, if it contains the Rams’ front four anchored by Aaron Donald, the best defensive lineman in football. If Brady, the subject of many Super Bowl props for Sunday, isn’t disrupted and/or the opposing pass rush is sucking wind after a ball-control drive, the Patriots passing game is lethal.

The Rams, 15-3 SU and 9-7-2 ATS, are new to the tumult of the Super Bowl. However, head coach Sean McVay thrives at creating mismatches, and two of the Rams’ season-long strengths, running out one-back, one-tight end sets and using play-action passes, are not tactics that New England has defended particularly well.

Goff also led five game-winning drives during the season, emerging victorious in quarterback matchups against stars such as Drew Brees, Patrick Mahomes and Russell Wilson (twice).

The total has gone OVER in seven of the Patriots’ last eight games in the playoffs. New England’s last four closely contested playoff games have featured 68, 74, 44 and 62 points.

For more odds information, betting picks and a breakdown of this week’s top sports betting news check out the OddsShark podcast with Jon Campbell and Andrew Avery. Subscribe on iTunes or Spotify or listen to it at OddsShark.libsyn.com.

First commercial, Trump Tweets, Gatorade color among Super Bowl LIII props

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Fans watch the Super Bowl for the commercials as much as the game, which also lends itself to Super Bowl props.

For instance, Bud Light is the -105 favorite have a commercial appear first during the telecast at sportsbooks monitored by OddsShark.com. The brewer has a long track record of attention-getting ads, and making a first impression can whet the appetite for something later on in the evening.

Budweiser (+200) is a second favorite on that prop and there might be longshot value on Stella Artois (+550), whose ad will include Jeff Bridges and Sarah Jessica Parker reprising their respective roles from The Big Lebowski and Sex and the City. Michelob Ultra (+550) and Bon & Viv Spiked Seltzer (+550) are also on the board.

The total number of commercials is set at 96, with both the over and under priced at -120. In the car commercial prop, Hyundai (-250) is favored against Mercedes-Benz (+170), but it might be worth playing a hunch since the February 3 game is at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta.

Atlanta has also been hit by wintry weather this week, and it’s -140 on the Super Bowl 2019 prop bets on the stadium’s roof being closed against even money for open.

The previous two championship matchups each had over 60 points scored, and the New England Patriots and Los Angeles Rams are certainly capable of trading touchdowns. It is -140 that any scoring drive will consume less game time than however long it will take Gladys Knight to perform The Star-Spangled Banner.

As far as coach props, the over/under is 1.5 on broadcaster references to the relative youthfulness of 33-year-old Rams coach Sean McVay, with the over (-220) favored against the under (+155). Los Angeles is the underdog on the 2019 Super Bowl odds.

There is also a total set for the number of tweets from President Donald Trump’s Twitter account during the big game. Over 6.0 tweets is a -140 favorite with the under an even-money underdog. It is -650 on Trump not attending the game and +375 on him showing up. He did not attend Super Bowl LII in 2018.

A cross-sport bet is whether Houston Rockets star James Harden’s streak of 30-point games – 24 and counting – will end before Super Bowl LIII does, with -120 odds either way. Harden’s next two opponents, the Denver Nuggets and Utah Jazz, have each managed to keep him under 30 at least once this season.

As far as props that pay off postgame are concerned, there is the ever-popular bet on what color liquid the winning coach will be doused in after the game. Clear / water (+220) is a slim favorite over lime / green / yellow (+225), followed by orange (+400), blue (+400), red (+600) and purple (+1000). The Patriots, for what it might be worth, have poured a clear liquid on coach Bill Belichick following each of their four most recent Super Bowl wins.

For more odds information, betting picks and a breakdown of this week’s top sports betting news check out the OddsShark podcast with Jon Campbell and Andrew Avery. Subscribe on iTunes or Spotify or listen to it at OddsShark.libsyn.com.