Matchweek 8 Premier League odds: Man City the underdog at Liverpool

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A first-place showdown between powerhouses unbeaten in the Premier League puts it on bettors to weigh recent form against long-term trends.

Liverpool is a narrow +155 favorite on the Premier League odds with Manchester City coming back at +180 on Sunday at sportsbooks monitored by OddsShark.com. The draw offers +255 on the three-way moneyline and the total is 2.5 goals.

The teams are dead-level at the top of the table with 19 points from seven games, but Liverpool is 7-1-2 (wins/draws/losses) in its last 10 matches against Manchester City since 2015. Liverpool also has a string of eight clean sheets in a row at home at Anfield, while manager Jurgen Klopp has typically got the better of Man City counterpart Pep Guardiola.

The host Reds have shown some fraying during recent losses in the Champions League and other outside competitions, though. Manchester City, with the midfield trio of Bernard Silva, David Silva and Fernardinho making people forget Kevin De Bruyne is out of action, is capable of breaking Liverpool’s press and generating scoring chances. If this match seems too close to pick a side, the both teams to score/OVER 2.5 goals has a decent -120 payout.

In the individual props, Liverpool’s Sadio Mane (+190 anytime scorer) and Man City’s Raheem Sterling (+190 anytime) each offer more value than more ballyhooed strikers Mo Salah and Sergio Aguero.

Brighton & Hove Albion (+170) is winless in its last five league matches, while visiting West Ham United (+180, draw +235) is unbeaten in three games going into a Friday matchup. Five of the last six games in this matchup have gone OVER 2.5 goals, so there is a good chance of seeing some offense here, perhaps through Brighton’s Glenn Murray (+135 anytime) and West Ham’s Andriy Yamolenko (+200 anytime).

Watford (+110) has long thrived against Bournemouth (+255, draw +255), with a win or a draw in 13 of their last 14 matchups. Bournemouth has also conceded goals in nine consecutive away games, so a Watford win with both teams scoring (+275) seems like a percentage play. Watford’s Troy Deeney (+550 first goal scorer, +170 anytime) has five goals in his last four home games against Bournemouth.

Crystal Palace (+200) and Wolverhampton (+160, draw +220) are each on low-scoring trends, which explains the 2.0-goals total. However, their last four matches in all competitions have gone OVER 2.5 goals. With Crystal Palace struggling at home, Wolverhampton are worth backing on the double chance.

Manchester United (-215), almost unthinkably, is mired in 10th place with manager Jose Mourinho hearing calls for his job, but lowly Newcastle United (+750, draw +345) is on a seven-match winless skid in the league. Manchester United should be able to wrest victory here, while counting on Marcus Rashford (+400 first scorer, +130 anytime) to chip in offensively.

Fulham (+400) and Arsenal (-150, draw +335) is a Sunday matchup with the week’s only 3.5-goals total, but that high bar might be clearable with the wide-open style the Gunners have embraced under manager Unai Emery. Arsenal has been a second-half team, what with having been tied at halftime in five consecutive games.

Southampton (+500), which hosts Chelsea (-165, draw +315) in a  Sunday matchup, might well have earned its squad goal for the week by reaching the fourth round of the Carabao Cup. Southampton has won only once in its last 14 league games at home and Chelsea is on a seven-match unbeaten streak; both trends are hard to go against.

For more odds information, betting picks and a breakdown of this week’s top sports betting news check out the OddsShark podcast with Jon Campbell and Andrew Avery. Subscribe on iTunes or listen to it at OddsShark.libsyn.com.

Matchweek 14 Premier League odds: Arsenal-Tottenham toss-up

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It takes a lot to discount the home advantage Arsenal will take into a north London derby against Tottenham Hotspur, one of the Premier League’s top away teams.

Arsenal is a narrow +160 favorite on this week’s Premier League odds with Tottenham coming back at +170, while the draw is at +265 on the three-way moneyline and there is a 3.0-goals total for Sunday at sportsbooks monitored by OddsShark.com. Arsenal is undefeated in its last six home matches against Tottenham; the Spurs have won five away matches in a row.

Each team has sufficient offensive capability and motivation to attack to prevent a clean sheet on either side, which is a starting point for bettors who would like to focus on totals with the match result so close to call. Arsenal’s Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang (+333 first scorer, -110 anytime) and Tottenham’s Harry Kane (+375, +105) stand good chances of tallying. In both teams to score props, tie/yes (+300) offers more payout than the draw on the moneyline.

Leicester City (+125) and Watford (+255, draw +235) carry some strong UNDER trends, as Leicester’s last five matches in all competitions have gone UNDER 2.5 goals, while the same is true in eight of Watford’s last nine away games in the league. There is little separating the teams in capabilities or in the standings, so Watford rates a look on the double chance (-145).

Newcastle United (+145) takes on West Ham United (+210, draw +235) having won three games on the bounce. West Ham is having great difficulty winning many games, but it is a pesky road team whose last three away matches have all gone UNDER. West Ham on the double chance (-170) could be the percentage play, and Marko Arnautovic (+450 first scorer, +150 anytime) should get some scoring chances off of counter-attacks.

Relegation-threatened Southampton (+340) hosts Manchester United (-110, draw +265), whose last six away matches in all competition have all gone OVER 2.5 goals. There is value in a powerhouse that’s maddeningly inconsistent, as Yes/Over 2.5 (+125) and Man United win/yes (+275) offer value in the myriad both teams to score props.

Chelsea (-600) and Fulham (+1500, draw +700) have a 3.5-goals total in a Sunday matchup, but their last five games at Stamford Bridge have all gone UNDER 2.5 goals and Fulham has also failed to score in four of its last five away matches. Chelsea is even money for both a clean sheet and a shutout win.

And Liverpool (-260) is undefeated against city rival Everton (+750, draw +400) in their last 21 matchups in all competitions, but the visiting Toffees come into this Sunday matchup on a three-game shutout streak in the league. Liverpool and Sadio Mane (+150 anytime) should be able to break through eventually, but No/Under 2.5 (+200) might have the best value in both-teams-to-score props.

For more odds information, betting picks and a breakdown of this week’s top sports betting news check out the OddsShark podcast with Jon Campbell and Andrew Avery. Subscribe on iTunes or Spotify or listen to it at OddsShark.libsyn.com.

Matchweek 12 Premier League odds: Manchester Derby highlights weekend

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The disparate fortunes of the teams involved in this weekend’s Manchester derby might lead bettors to seek out ways to restore betting value to Manchester City.

Playing at the Etihad Stadium, Manchester City are the -250 moneyline favorite on this week’s Premier League odds with Manchester United coming back at +700, while the draw is at +400 with a 3.0-goals total for Sunday at sportsbooks monitored by OddsShark.com.

The away team has had a result in the last six games in this matchup (four wins and two 0-0 draws). The law of averages alone indicates it would be tough for that to continue, but there have also been OVER 2.5 goals scored in 21 of Man City’s last 24 home games, as well as OVER 2.5 goals scored in Man United’s last five Premier League games.

Taking Manchester City win/yes (+150) in both teams to score (BTTS) props is a higher-yield play, as they are an aggressive team at home and will work to set up Sergio Aguero (+275 first goal scorer, -145 anytime). Manchester City has also been leading at halftime in six of its last seven games. On the Man United front, Romelu Lukaku’s absence might make for a slow start, but at minus-1.5 (-125) on the goals line, the Red Devils might recoup some value.

Elsewhere, Cardiff City (+155) has not fared well over the years against Brighton & Hove Albion (+210, draw +215), which has drawn or won 11 of the last 12 matchups (all competitions). Since Brighton has won only one of its last 19 away matches in EPL play, its double chance odds (-185) could be a more secure play.

Leicester City (-200) visits Burnley (+650, draw +325) having shown, by winning its previous outing, that it is channeling grief over the tragic helicopter death of chairman Vichai Srivaddhanaprabha two weeks ago. There have been OVER 2.5 goals (-120 on the betting line) in five of Burnley’s last six games, so Leicester might be able to pounce.

Crystal Palace (+355) and Tottenham Hotspur (-120, draw +270) has been a low-scoring fixture. Crystal Palace has failed to score in their last four tries against Tottenham and the teams’ last five matchups have been under 2.5 goals (in all competitions). Taking No/Under 2.5 (+175) in both teams to score props covers the possibility of Tottenham grinding out another win.

Liverpool (-950) takes on Fulham (+2400, draw +1000) in a Sunday matchup that is a mismatch on paper, with a rare 4.0-goals total. Liverpool has kept clean sheets in seven of its last eight games against Fulham in all competitions, and Fulham is on a five-game losing streak. Smarting from a Champions League loss on Wednesday, Liverpool could take out its frustrations and go OVER (+110) on its own 3.5-goals total.

And Chelsea (-240) hosts Everton (+650, draw +400) on Sunday with the expectation of a fully fit squad, save for Cesc Fabregas (illness), after playing a Champions League match on Thursday. Both Chelsea’s last four games and five of Everton’s last six games have gone OVER 2.5 goals, so this matchup’s 3.0-goals total could be bested.

For more odds information, betting picks and a breakdown of this week’s top sports betting news check out the OddsShark podcast with Jon Campbell and Andrew Avery. Subscribe on iTunes or Spotify or listen to it at OddsShark.libsyn.com.