Running from the rail post and facing horses who are better rested could derail Justify’s bid for horse racing’s Triple Crown.
As one would expect with the chestnut colt who has won the Kentucky Derby and Preakness Stakes, Justify is the -110 favorite on the 2018 Belmont Stakes odds at sportsbooks monitored by OddsShark.com. The 1½-mile race, the final jewel in the Triple Crown, takes place at Belmont Park in Elmont, N.Y., on Saturday.
Thirty-five horses have gone into the Belmont with a chance to win the Triple Crown but only 12 have completed the feat, with American Pharoah being the most recent in 2015. Many owners and trainers hold back their horses from the Preakness.
Justify and jockey Mike Smith have drawn gate 1, meaning that it will be an absolute must for the colt to have the same speed he has shown in previous starts, especially during the first quarter-mile.
Hofburg (+450) is a deserving second favorite on the Belmont Stakes betting lines but is running from gate 4 and that could limit his chance to break from the outside. Bravazo (+750), who is in gate 3, has flashed potential this spring and had a great effort in the Preakness but might be too much of a wild card.
The value play could be Tenfold (+1000), who ran third in the Preakness and will have the more favorable No. 7 position. Bettors who read into pedigree have likely already noted Tenfold is a son of Tapit, who has sired three of the past four Belmont Stakes winners.
Blended Citizen (+1800), who has the outside No. 10 position, could be in the running to at least show after having success on the same track on May 12 when he won the Peter Pan Stakes, which is only nine furlongs to the Belmont’s 12. In 2014, a Peter Pan winner, Tonalist, squelched California Chrome’s Triple Crown bid.
The two Todd Pletcher-trained racers, Vino Rosso (+900) and Noble Indy (+2800), will break side-by-side from gates 8 and 9 respectively. At those odds, Noble Indy might be worth taking a flyer on, given that Pletcher has trained three Belmont Stakes winners.
The rest of the 10-horse field consists of Gronkowski (+2500, gate 6), Free Drop Billy (+3000, gate 2) and Restoring Hope (+3300, gate 5).
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