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Golden Knights betting favorites for Game 5 of the Stanley Cup Final

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Being up three games to one has often been a dangerous series lead for the Washington Capitals, which might be why the Vegas Golden Knights are favored to stave off elimination in the Stanley Cup final on Thursday night.

 

While Washington is one win away from its first Stanley Cup, the Golden Knights are a -145 moneyline favorite and the Capitals come back as a +125 underdog with a 5.5-goal total for Game 5 at sportsbooks monitored by OddsShark.com.

 

In the league’s history, teams that have been up 3-1 in the Stanley Cup final have gone on to win the championship 32 of 33 times, including 31 in a row.

 

More in the here and now, Washington is 9-3 in 12 away games during the playoffs. Three of the four teams that had 10 road wins in a single postseason have won the Stanley Cup. Vegas is 7-3 in its last 10 home games as moneyline favorite of -135 to -200, according to the OddsShark NHL Database.

 

The Capitals franchise has the dubious distinction of having lost five playoff series after leading 3-1, which is an NHL record. However, Washington’s top three centers, Evgeny Kuznetsov (playoff-leading 31 points), Nicklas Backstrom and Lars Eller, have generally outplayed their Vegas counterparts in this series.

 

Washington goalie Braden Holtby has a 2.13 goals-against average and .923 save percentage in the playoffs, with two shutouts.

 

The basis for backing the Golden Knights is that they have lacked puck luck, never more so than when left wing James Neal hit the post with a wide-open net when Game 4 was still scoreless on Monday. Top-line center William Karlsson, who did not practice on Wednesday, has been struggling, with only five recorded shots in four games during the Stanley Cup final and only three points in Vegas’ last seven games, well below his averages for the full season.

 

Vegas’ second and third lines, centered by Erik Haula and Cody Eakin, haven’t been able to cover for the dip in production from the Karlsson line.

 

Vegas goalie Marc-Andre Fleury has a 2.15 goals-against average and .929 save percentage with four shutouts in the playoffs. Fleury’s average has risen by almost half a goal during the last four games.

 

While it’s a small sample, the Capitals have had the special teams edge, as their power play is 4-for-12 (33.3 per cent) in the series. The Golden Knights are 2-for-12 (16.7 per cent).

 

The total has gone under in 14 of the Capitals’ last 18 games against Pacific Division teams. The total has also gone under in seven of the Golden Knights’ last seven games against Eastern Conference teams.

 

If Vegas wins and avoids elimination, the Capitals will host Game 6 on Sunday.

 

For more odds information, betting picks and a breakdown of this week’s top sports betting news check out the OddsShark podcast with Jon Campbell and Andrew Avery. Subscribe on iTunes or listen to it at OddsShark.libsyn.com.

 

Lightning heavy favorites on Stanley Cup odds at all-star break

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The NHL has a team far out in front in the overall standings as it heads into its all-star break – and that might serve to goose the value of other Stanley Cup contenders.

The Tampa Bay Lightning, who have been first overall for most of the season, are the +260 favorite on the latest Stanley Cup odds at sportsbooks monitored by OddsShark.com. The Lightning, with a deep offense led by Nikita Kucherov, Brayden Point and Steven Stamkos and a premiere defenseman in Victor Hedman leading their back end, lead the NHL in points, wins, goals scored and goal differential.

The top of the futures board also includes the Western Conference-leading Calgary Flames (+550), San Jose Sharks (+750), Toronto Maple Leafs (+800) and Winnipeg Jets (+800).

As loaded as the Lightning are, the top team in the regular season rarely lifts the Stanley Cup in the spring. The 2008 Detroit Red Wings are the most recent team to finish first overall and go on to win the whole thing in a full 82-game season. Only eight of 33 Presidents’ Trophy winners have also won the Stanley Cup.

Calgary is a solid second favorite, with left wing Johnny Gaudreau and defenseman Mark Giordano being among the NHL’s best at their positions. As a western Canada-based team, the Flames are also likely to fly under the radar of public bettors. Their question mark revolves around goalies David Rittich and Mike Smith having almost no Stanley Cup playoff experience.

Sticking in the Pacific Division, San Jose is a springtime-seasoned team, having made the final in 2016, and their current standing has come with dynamic defenseman Erik Karlsson working his way back to peak form after adapting to a new team.

At this stage of the game, bettors looking for value in a league that prides itself on parity should consider teams with greater than 10/1 odds to win the Stanley Cup. The cluster of teams that includes the Nashville Predators (+1400), Vegas Golden Knights (+1500), New York Islanders (+1600), Pittsburgh Penguins (+1600) and defending champion Washington Capitals (+2000) includes plenty of playoff experience.

The Penguins are always a threat with Sidney Crosby and have weathered injuries, including one to No. 1 goalie Matt Murray, during the first four months of the regular season. The Predators and Golden Knights are the two most recent Western Conference finalists and are both strong puck-possession teams, while the Islanders are under the command of head coach Barry Trotz, who steered Washington to its first Stanley Cup in 2018.

It might be best to fade the Capitals, though, until such time that No. 1 goalie Braden Holtby shows he can recover his past form.

For more odds information, betting picks and a breakdown of this week’s top sports betting news check out the OddsShark podcast with Jon Campbell and Andrew Avery. Subscribe on iTunes or Spotify or listen to it at OddsShark.libsyn.com.

NHL Odds: Favored Predators host Golden Knights

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Inasmuch as everything evens out over the run of 82 games in the NHL, the Nashville Predators might have the law of averages on their side against the inconsistent Vegas Golden Knights on Tuesday night.

The Predators are a -165 betting favorite on the Tuesday NHL odds with the Vegas Golden Knights coming back +135, while there is a 5.5-goal total at sportsbooks monitored by OddsShark.com.

According to the OddsShark NHL Database, Nashville has lost its last three home games against Pacific Division teams but is 16-9 over its last 25 regular-season home games against the other division from the Western Conference. The Predators, paced in the scoring stats by Filip Forsberg, are also 6-4 in their last 10 regular-season home games as a -150 to -175 moneyline favorite, which seems lower than what one might anticipate from a team that finished first overall last season and also was a Stanley Cup finalist in 2016/17.

The Golden Knights are 5-5-1 on the season, including a 2-3 away record. The Vegas attack will likely be missing some of its forward depth with Cody Eakin (upper body injury) and Max Pacioretty (upper body injury) both listed as a day-to-day, and their top-end forwards such as William Karlsson and Jonathan Marchessault will be facing a deep Nashville defense corps led by Roman Josi and P.K. Subban.

While creating offensive chances at even strength might be a challenge, Vegas, which is 3-7 in its last 10 regular-season road games as the underdog, is also struggling with the extra skater. Their power play, at 10.8 percent, is 29th in the 31-team NHL.

Veteran goalie Marc-Andre Fleury is likely to get the start for Vegas. Fleury has a 2.50 goals-against average and an .897 save percentage.

The Predators are 8-3 but have had more adverse results at the Bridgestone Arena, where they are 3-3 on the young season. The JOFA line of center Ryan Johansen, the aforementioned Forsberg and Viktor Arvidsson have sustained Nashville offensively by scoring 19 of their 38 goals, including 10 from Forsberg alone.

That’s not really a recipe for long-term success, and until the Predators begin getting secondary scoring on a regular basis, some of their recent OVER trends might regress toward parity. To that end, Nashville is also languishing in the power-play rankings at 14.6 percent, 25th in the league.

In goal, Juuse Saros has a 2.73 goals-against average and .912 save percentage so far this season while filling in for Pekka Rinne, who is on injured reserve.

The total has gone OVER in five of Vegas’ last eight regular-season road games as an underdog of -130 to -150 on the moneyline. The total has gone OVER in six of Nashville’s last nine regular-season home games. The total has also gone OVER in six of Nashville’s last seven home games against Pacific Division teams.

For more odds information, betting picks and a breakdown of this week’s top sports betting news check out the OddsShark podcast with Jon Campbell and Andrew Avery. Subscribe on iTunes or Spotify or listen to it at OddsShark.libsyn.com.