Stanley Cup Final heads to Washington with Capitals Game 3 betting favorites

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The Vegas Golden Knights have produced value for bettors by playing the perfect road game, while the Washington Capitals are dealing with an injury to first-line center Evgeny Kuznetsov.

The Capitals are a -125 moneyline favorite while the Golden Knights are a +105 underdog and the total is at 5.5 for Game 3 of the Stanley Cup Final at sportsbooks monitored by OddsShark.com. The teams head into the matchup at Capital One Arena on Saturday with a two-day respite since splitting two games on Vegas’ home ice, reducing the NHL championship series to a best-of-5.

The OddsShark NHL Database notes that the Golden Knights, a first-year expansion team, are 6-2 in their last eight games as an away underdog. The under has hit in five of those contests, with two pushes. The Capitals are 2-4 in their last six home games as a favorite of -100 to -130. Overall, Washington is 4-5 at home during the playoffs, which suggests there is a strong chance of the series being tied again after Game 4.

The Golden Knights were only 8-8 during their 16 road games against Eastern Conference teams and bettors must decide whether their road record in the playoffs reflects more on their talent or how Vegas matched up with early-rounds opponents who had less team speed.

Vegas has a 73-54 edge in recorded shots on goal so far in the series, but its William Karlsson-Jonathan Marchessault-Reilly Smith first line will need to be creative to get loose from the Capitals’ mobile defense unit.

Vegas goalie Marc-Andre Fleury has a 1.88 goals-against average and a .939 save percentage in the playoffs after allowing seven goals on 54 shots in the past two games. Fleury has not gone three games in a row all season with save percentages of less than .900.

For the Capitals, their foremost concern is whether Kuznetsov, who practiced on Friday after coming out of Game 2 early holding his left arm, will be able to take his No. 1 center spot between left wing Alex Ovechkin and right wing Tom Wilson. The Capitals’ adjustment during Game 2 was to put Nicklas Backstrom up on the Ovechkin line, with rookie left wing Jakub Vrana helping the second line generate more shot attempts than their Vegas counterparts.

Washington goalie Braden Holtby has a 2.19 goals-against average and .921 save percentage during the playoffs. Holtby is coming off a 37-save performance during Washington’s win in Game 2 and also had a shutout in the Capitals’ previous home game.

The total has gone under in Vegas’ last five road games against Eastern Conference teams, although the most recent contest in the sample was on March 12. The total has gone over in six of Washington’s last nine home games against Western Conference teams

For more odds information, betting picks and a breakdown of this week’s top sports betting news check out the OddsShark podcast with Jon Campbell and Andrew Avery. Subscribe on iTunes or listen to it at OddsShark.libsyn.com.

Lightning heavy favorites on Stanley Cup odds at all-star break

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The NHL has a team far out in front in the overall standings as it heads into its all-star break – and that might serve to goose the value of other Stanley Cup contenders.

The Tampa Bay Lightning, who have been first overall for most of the season, are the +260 favorite on the latest Stanley Cup odds at sportsbooks monitored by OddsShark.com. The Lightning, with a deep offense led by Nikita Kucherov, Brayden Point and Steven Stamkos and a premiere defenseman in Victor Hedman leading their back end, lead the NHL in points, wins, goals scored and goal differential.

The top of the futures board also includes the Western Conference-leading Calgary Flames (+550), San Jose Sharks (+750), Toronto Maple Leafs (+800) and Winnipeg Jets (+800).

As loaded as the Lightning are, the top team in the regular season rarely lifts the Stanley Cup in the spring. The 2008 Detroit Red Wings are the most recent team to finish first overall and go on to win the whole thing in a full 82-game season. Only eight of 33 Presidents’ Trophy winners have also won the Stanley Cup.

Calgary is a solid second favorite, with left wing Johnny Gaudreau and defenseman Mark Giordano being among the NHL’s best at their positions. As a western Canada-based team, the Flames are also likely to fly under the radar of public bettors. Their question mark revolves around goalies David Rittich and Mike Smith having almost no Stanley Cup playoff experience.

Sticking in the Pacific Division, San Jose is a springtime-seasoned team, having made the final in 2016, and their current standing has come with dynamic defenseman Erik Karlsson working his way back to peak form after adapting to a new team.

At this stage of the game, bettors looking for value in a league that prides itself on parity should consider teams with greater than 10/1 odds to win the Stanley Cup. The cluster of teams that includes the Nashville Predators (+1400), Vegas Golden Knights (+1500), New York Islanders (+1600), Pittsburgh Penguins (+1600) and defending champion Washington Capitals (+2000) includes plenty of playoff experience.

The Penguins are always a threat with Sidney Crosby and have weathered injuries, including one to No. 1 goalie Matt Murray, during the first four months of the regular season. The Predators and Golden Knights are the two most recent Western Conference finalists and are both strong puck-possession teams, while the Islanders are under the command of head coach Barry Trotz, who steered Washington to its first Stanley Cup in 2018.

It might be best to fade the Capitals, though, until such time that No. 1 goalie Braden Holtby shows he can recover his past form.

For more odds information, betting picks and a breakdown of this week’s top sports betting news check out the OddsShark podcast with Jon Campbell and Andrew Avery. Subscribe on iTunes or Spotify or listen to it at OddsShark.libsyn.com.

NHL Odds: Favored Predators host Golden Knights

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Inasmuch as everything evens out over the run of 82 games in the NHL, the Nashville Predators might have the law of averages on their side against the inconsistent Vegas Golden Knights on Tuesday night.

The Predators are a -165 betting favorite on the Tuesday NHL odds with the Vegas Golden Knights coming back +135, while there is a 5.5-goal total at sportsbooks monitored by OddsShark.com.

According to the OddsShark NHL Database, Nashville has lost its last three home games against Pacific Division teams but is 16-9 over its last 25 regular-season home games against the other division from the Western Conference. The Predators, paced in the scoring stats by Filip Forsberg, are also 6-4 in their last 10 regular-season home games as a -150 to -175 moneyline favorite, which seems lower than what one might anticipate from a team that finished first overall last season and also was a Stanley Cup finalist in 2016/17.

The Golden Knights are 5-5-1 on the season, including a 2-3 away record. The Vegas attack will likely be missing some of its forward depth with Cody Eakin (upper body injury) and Max Pacioretty (upper body injury) both listed as a day-to-day, and their top-end forwards such as William Karlsson and Jonathan Marchessault will be facing a deep Nashville defense corps led by Roman Josi and P.K. Subban.

While creating offensive chances at even strength might be a challenge, Vegas, which is 3-7 in its last 10 regular-season road games as the underdog, is also struggling with the extra skater. Their power play, at 10.8 percent, is 29th in the 31-team NHL.

Veteran goalie Marc-Andre Fleury is likely to get the start for Vegas. Fleury has a 2.50 goals-against average and an .897 save percentage.

The Predators are 8-3 but have had more adverse results at the Bridgestone Arena, where they are 3-3 on the young season. The JOFA line of center Ryan Johansen, the aforementioned Forsberg and Viktor Arvidsson have sustained Nashville offensively by scoring 19 of their 38 goals, including 10 from Forsberg alone.

That’s not really a recipe for long-term success, and until the Predators begin getting secondary scoring on a regular basis, some of their recent OVER trends might regress toward parity. To that end, Nashville is also languishing in the power-play rankings at 14.6 percent, 25th in the league.

In goal, Juuse Saros has a 2.73 goals-against average and .912 save percentage so far this season while filling in for Pekka Rinne, who is on injured reserve.

The total has gone OVER in five of Vegas’ last eight regular-season road games as an underdog of -130 to -150 on the moneyline. The total has gone OVER in six of Nashville’s last nine regular-season home games. The total has also gone OVER in six of Nashville’s last seven home games against Pacific Division teams.

For more odds information, betting picks and a breakdown of this week’s top sports betting news check out the OddsShark podcast with Jon Campbell and Andrew Avery. Subscribe on iTunes or Spotify or listen to it at OddsShark.libsyn.com.