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Lightning Host Capitals as Game 5 Betting Favorite on Home Ice

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An overwhelming over trend might be the lone certainty in an NHL semifinal series where the away team has won every game.

The Lightning are a -170 home-ice favorite with the Washington Capitals coming back at +150 and there is a six-goal total at sportsbooks monitored by OddsShark.com for Game 5 of the Eastern Conference final on Saturday night. The series is tied 2-2.

The total has gone over in 16 of Tampa Bay’s last 20 home games against Metropolitan Division teams, according to the OddsShark NHL Database, while Washington is 11-2 in its last 13 away games during the playoffs. Tampa Bay is 7-3 in its last 10 home games.

Washington, which is also 16-4 in its last 20 away games (playoffs and regular season) against Atlantic Division teams, was snakebitten in the two most recent games of the series. The Capitals, led offensively by Alex Ovechkin, outshot the Lightning by a combined 76-43 in Games 3 and 4, but were stonewalled by Tampa Bay goalie Andrei Vasilevskiy.

More often than not, the team generating more shot attempts and shots on goal eventually prevails in hockey. The Capitals will also have a key cog, center Nicklas Backstrom, in his second game back from an injury.

Capitals goalie Braden Holtby has a 2.24 goals-against average and .917 save percentage in the playoffs. Neither starting goalie has had a shutout in the postseason, which is another reason to think there will be some numbers put on the board at Amalie Arena.

Tampa Bay, which is 7-3 in its last 10 home games during the playoffs as a moneyline favorite of -150 to -500 on the NHL betting lines, has stayed in the series thanks to a lethal power play. With center Steven Stamkos and right wing Nikita Kucherov thriving on being teed up by their teammates, Tampa Bay has scored six of its 12 goals in the series on the power play.

The shots on goal discrepancy in Game 4 could be attributable to a string of the penalties that left the Lightning in a defensive mode for long stretches, particularly a 20-minute stretch where it failed to record an official shot. It’s plausible that Tampa Bay, the highest-scoring team in the NHL in the regular season, will break out at some point.

Vasilevskiy has a 2.63 goals-against average and .918 save percentage in the playoffs.

While everyone loves an overtime game, puckline bets have been a solid play recently. Fifteen of the last 17 NHL playoff games have been decided by more than one goal, although two of the past three required an empty-net goal in the final seconds of the game.

For more odds information, betting picks and a breakdown of this week’s top sports betting news check out the OddsShark podcast with Jon Campbell and Andrew Avery. Subscribe on iTunes or listen to it at OddsShark.libsyn.com.

 

NHL Odds: Favored Predators host Golden Knights

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Inasmuch as everything evens out over the run of 82 games in the NHL, the Nashville Predators might have the law of averages on their side against the inconsistent Vegas Golden Knights on Tuesday night.

The Predators are a -165 betting favorite on the Tuesday NHL odds with the Vegas Golden Knights coming back +135, while there is a 5.5-goal total at sportsbooks monitored by OddsShark.com.

According to the OddsShark NHL Database, Nashville has lost its last three home games against Pacific Division teams but is 16-9 over its last 25 regular-season home games against the other division from the Western Conference. The Predators, paced in the scoring stats by Filip Forsberg, are also 6-4 in their last 10 regular-season home games as a -150 to -175 moneyline favorite, which seems lower than what one might anticipate from a team that finished first overall last season and also was a Stanley Cup finalist in 2016/17.

The Golden Knights are 5-5-1 on the season, including a 2-3 away record. The Vegas attack will likely be missing some of its forward depth with Cody Eakin (upper body injury) and Max Pacioretty (upper body injury) both listed as a day-to-day, and their top-end forwards such as William Karlsson and Jonathan Marchessault will be facing a deep Nashville defense corps led by Roman Josi and P.K. Subban.

While creating offensive chances at even strength might be a challenge, Vegas, which is 3-7 in its last 10 regular-season road games as the underdog, is also struggling with the extra skater. Their power play, at 10.8 percent, is 29th in the 31-team NHL.

Veteran goalie Marc-Andre Fleury is likely to get the start for Vegas. Fleury has a 2.50 goals-against average and an .897 save percentage.

The Predators are 8-3 but have had more adverse results at the Bridgestone Arena, where they are 3-3 on the young season. The JOFA line of center Ryan Johansen, the aforementioned Forsberg and Viktor Arvidsson have sustained Nashville offensively by scoring 19 of their 38 goals, including 10 from Forsberg alone.

That’s not really a recipe for long-term success, and until the Predators begin getting secondary scoring on a regular basis, some of their recent OVER trends might regress toward parity. To that end, Nashville is also languishing in the power-play rankings at 14.6 percent, 25th in the league.

In goal, Juuse Saros has a 2.73 goals-against average and .912 save percentage so far this season while filling in for Pekka Rinne, who is on injured reserve.

The total has gone OVER in five of Vegas’ last eight regular-season road games as an underdog of -130 to -150 on the moneyline. The total has gone OVER in six of Nashville’s last nine regular-season home games. The total has also gone OVER in six of Nashville’s last seven home games against Pacific Division teams.

For more odds information, betting picks and a breakdown of this week’s top sports betting news check out the OddsShark podcast with Jon Campbell and Andrew Avery. Subscribe on iTunes or Spotify or listen to it at OddsShark.libsyn.com.

Capitals betting favorites in Stanley Cup rematch with Golden Knights

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The Washington Capitals take two strong long-term trends into a Stanley Cup final rematch against the Vegas Golden Knights on Wednesday night.

The Capitals, led by captain Alex Ovechkin, are a -167 betting favorite on the NHL odds with the Golden Knights offering +135 as the underdog while the total is at 5.5 goals at sportsbooks monitored by OddsShark.com.

Counting the championship series four months ago, the Capitals are 15-5 in their last 20 home games against Western Conference teams. Since the start of the 2015-16 season, the Capitals are also 15-4 in their last 19 regular-season home games as a -160 to -180 moneyline favorite. Vegas is 5-3 as a -125 to -145 moneyline underdog on the road in its short history.

The OddsShark NHL Database also notes that the Golden Knights, who are visiting the Pittsburgh Penguins on Thursday as part of a five-game road trip, are 6-4 in the front end of back-to-back games.

The main question with the Golden Knights, who are 1-2-0 so far this season, is whether they will regress toward the mean after making a run to the Stanley Cup final as a first-year expansion team last season. Through three games, the Golden Knights and their top two lines led by William Karlssson and Paul Stastny have just five goals and have struggled to convert chances directly in front of the net, which is where most goals are scored in the NHL.

The Golden Knights will call on goalie Marc-Andre Fleury, who has a 3.93 goals-against average and .841 save percentage in two games.

On top of the strong home trends, the Capitals, who are 1-0-1 this season, may have greater continuity than the typical Stanley Cup-winning team, as 18 of the 20 players who dressed for the closeout game against Vegas in June remain on the roster.

Ovechkin and center Evgeny Kuznetsov have a new linemate with Brett Connolly at right wing with Tom Wilson (suspension) sidelined, but the Capitals’ second and third units centered by Nicklas Backstrom and Lars Eller are relatively strong. That third unit, with Eller between Chandler Stephenson and Andre Burakovsky, could be a deciding factor. On the back end, Michal Kempny has cleared concussion protocol and can rejoin John Carlson on the first defense pairing.

The Capitals, who have also had a four-day break since their last game, will likely start goalie Braden Holtby, who has a 3.46 goals-against average and .894 save percentage in two starts.

Early-season NHL games can occasionally become track meets on ice. The total has gone OVER in nine of Vegas’ last 14 games in October and the total has also gone OVER in 13 of Washington’s last 20 games in October.

For more odds information, betting picks and a breakdown of this week’s top sports betting news check out the OddsShark podcast with Jon Campbell and Andrew Avery. Subscribe on iTunes or Spotify or listen to it at OddsShark.libsyn.com.