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Capitals, Holtby heavy favorites hosting Rangers on Wednesday night

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Each team has its No. 1 goaltender due back from injury, but recent trends suggest that’s more likely to help the Washington Capitals than the New York Rangers.

The Metropolitan-leading Capitals are the -260 favorites on the NHL odds and the Rangers come back as +215 underdogs with a 6-goal total for their matchup on Wednesday night, according to sportsbooks monitored by OddsShark.com.

Late regular-season NHL games between Stanley Cup contenders such as the Capitals and also-rans such as the Rangers are prone to becoming moneyline mismatches. Washington, which is 9-1 in their last 10 home games as a moneyline favorite of -200 to -500, according to the OddsShark NHL Database, has only gone deeper into minus money on home ice four times in the last three seasons. The Rangers are 3-7 in their last 10 games as a moneyline underdog of +150 or higher.

The Rangers, whose 33-35-8 record includes a 12-20-4 road mark, are playing out the string and evaluating younger players, such as Lias Andersson and Filip Chytil. This will be their fifth consecutive road game where the opponent’s line was -200 or lower. New York lost the previous four and total finished over in all four matchups.

Veteran goalie Henrik Lundqvist (upper body) has missed three games in a row but is expected to start for New York. Lundqvist is 21-12-4 with a 2.65 goals-against average and .908 save percentage against the Capitals during his career.

The Capitals are 45-24-7, including a stellar 26-9-2 home record, as they push to finish at the top of their division. Veteran left wing Alex Ovechkin, who leads the NHL with 45 goals, has helped Washington go 8-2 in its last 10 home games against Metropolitan Division rivals. Washington coach Barry Trotz, whose team is on a six-game home win streak, has a healthy lineup at his disposal.

Washington has won by at least two goals in five of its last 10 games as a home favorite of -200 to -500, so the minus-1.5 goals puck line contains some value.

Washington goalie Braden Holtby (lower-body injury) is expected to start after being spelled by Philipp Grubauer when these same two teams played in New York on Monday. Over his career, Holtby is 9-9-1 with a 2.44 goals-against average and .918 save percentage against the Rangers.

The teams’ over/under splits are nearly identical, with the over holding a 19-17 mark in Rangers’ road games and a 19-17-1 mark in Capitals’ home games.

The total has gone under in five of New York’s last six home games when it was a moneyline  underdog of +200 or higher. The total has gone under in six of Washington’s last nine home games when it was a moneyline favorite of -225 to -500.

For more odds information, betting picks and a breakdown of this week’s top sports betting news check out the OddsShark podcast with Jon Campbell and Andrew Avery. Subscribe on iTunes or listen to it at OddsShark.libsyn.com.

Lightning open NHL offseason atop the 2019 Stanley Cup odds

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The Washington Capitals just won the Stanley Cup in what might’ve been their realistic last chance of doing so, which might illustrate how to look at the futures board for the 2018/19 NHL season.

The Tampa Bay Lightning, who fell to the Capitals in the penultimate round of the playoffs, are the +900 favorite on the 2019 Stanley Cup odds at sportsbooks monitored by OddsShark.com. There is a cluster of teams offering 10/1 odds, with the Washington Capitals, Toronto Maple Leafs and Winnipeg Jets each listed at +1000 heading into the 2019 NHL Draft and the start of free agency.

The next rung of the board includes the Vegas Golden Knights (+1100), Nashville Predators (+1100), Boston Bruins (+1200) and Pittsburgh Penguins (+1200).

The Lightning have some of the strongest cornerstone players in the NHL with Norris Trophy-winning defenseman Victor Hedman and goalie Andrei Vasilevskiy. Like the triumphant Capitals, Tampa Bay will be in win-now mode this season, as only eight players are under contract beyond this year.

Pittsburgh (2016 and 2017 champions) is the only team that has played in successive Stanley Cup finals in this decade. It might be best to fade the Capitals, especially since coach Barry Trotz has left over a contract dispute, hiring on with the New York Islanders.

The Toronto Maple Leafs have impressive young talent, most notably center Auston Matthews. Toronto’s path to the Stanley Cup, though, is blocked by being in the same division with two of the top seven teams on the big board, Tampa Bay and Boston.

Winnipeg will face fewer salary-cap issues this summer than Nashville, its Central Division rival. However, if the two are on a collision course for another second-round showdown, it’s worth pondering the likelihood of the Jets being able to win three road games in Nashville’s arena again.

The Vegas Golden Knights don’t have much more room to go up after having the greatest season ever by an expansion team, reaching the Stanley Cup final. The Pacific Division is well-represented at the top of the odds to win the 2019 Stanley Cup with the Edmonton Oilers (+1800), Anaheim Ducks (+2200), San Jose Sharks (+2200) and Calgary Flames (+2500) all on the top half of the board.

Given the way the NHL is geared toward parity, it might be too much to expect Vegas to play until June again.

Among those teams, San Jose could be an intriguing value play. San Jose, a long-time playoff team, showed through its recent trade activity – trading Mikkel Boedker to the Ottawa Senators for Mike Hoffman, who was flipped to the Florida Panthers – that it is setting up to load up with free agents this summer.

Ottawa (+10000), who has the longest odds, will have an effect on the board if it ends up trading superstar offensive defenseman Erik Karlsson, whose contract is up next year. The other transformative talent who could be on the move this summer is New York Islanders center John Tavares, who hasn’t ruled out re-signing with his original team.

For more odds information, betting picks and a breakdown of this week’s top sports betting news check out the OddsShark podcast with Jon Campbell and Andrew Avery. Subscribe on iTunes or listen to it at OddsShark.libsyn.com.

Golden Knights underdogs at Capitals on NHL odds for pivotal Game 4 matchup

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The Vegas Golden Knights are set as +110 road underdogs on the NHL odds at sportsbooks monitored by OddsShark.com for Monday night as they look to tie up the best-of-seven Stanley Cup final in Game 4 of the series at Capital One Arena.

Vegas fell into a 2-1 series hole on Saturday night with a 3-1 loss at Washington as +116 underdogs, marking their second straight defeat after they also lost 3-2 at home to the Capitals in Game 2 of the set last Wednesday night as -138 betting favorites.

The Golden Knights had staked themselves to a 1-0 lead in the Stanley Cup final with a 6-4 win in Game 1 back on May 28 as -152 favorites on the NHL odds.

Alex Ovechkin and Evgeny Kuznetsov carried the Capitals to a 2-0 lead with goals in the second period of Game 3 on Saturday night. Tomas Nosek pulled the Golden Knights to within one goal early in the third period, but Devante Smith-Pelly had the insurance marker for Washington with just over six minutes left in the game.

Capitals goaltender Braden Holtby stopped 21 of 22 Vegas shots in Saturday night’s victory. Vegas counterpart Marc-Andre Fleury gave up three goals on 26 shots in the contest; Fleury has allowed 10 goals over the first three games of the Stanley Cup final after surrendering just 10 goals over five games in the Western Conference final.

Saturday’s win shifted the Capitals from underdogs to favorites on the updated odds to win the Stanley Cup, with Washington now sitting as -240 chalk on that futures board. The Golden Knights slipped to +200 underdogs to win the Stanley Cup in their inaugural season.

Vegas has now suffered consecutive losses for the first time since early April, having dropped back to back games to the Edmonton Oilers and Calgary Flames on April 5 and April 7. Saturday also marked the fifth UNDER result for totals bettors in the Golden Knights’ last seven outings, according to the OddsShark NHL Database.

The Capitals are 4-1 in their past five games dating back to the Eastern Conference final against the Tampa Bay Lightning, where they picked up victories in Game 6 and Game 7. The UNDER is 5-1 for totals bettors in Washington’s last six games.

Washington is also 4-2 in its last six games on home ice, with the OVER only paying off once in that stretch for totals bettors at the sportsbooks.

Puck drop for Game 4 on Monday night is set for 8:00pm ET. The two teams will then get two days off before Game 5 at T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas on Thursday night. Game 6, if necessary, would be played back in Washington on Sunday night, with a deciding Game 7 on the schedule for next Wednesday in Las Vegas.

For more odds information, betting picks and a breakdown of this week’s top sports betting news check out the OddsShark podcast with Jon Campbell and Andrew Avery. Subscribe on iTunes or listen to it at OddsShark.libsyn.com.