AP Images

Lightning, Golden Knights co-favorites on updated Stanley Cup odds

Leave a comment

A season that is nothing short of historic for an expansion team has put the Vegas Golden Knights at the top of the odds to win the Stanley Cup, but bettors will no doubt look past that since the playoffs are practically a different sport.

The Tampa Bay Lightning and the aforementioned Golden Knights are +600 co-favorites on the latest Stanley Cup futures at sportsbooks monitored by OddsShark.com.

With just less than a third of the regular season to go and the NHL’s February 26 trade deadline less than two weeks away, the top of the board also includes the surging Boston Bruins (+800), Nashville Predators (+850), two-time defending champion Pittsburgh Penguins (+900) and Winnipeg Jets (+1200), as well as the Toronto Maple Leafs (+1500) and Washington Capitals (+1500).

The Golden Knights, out of the four division leaders, have the highest chance of staying in first place and securing home-ice advantage. It remains to be seen if a team put together last summer can stick together in the playoffs; right wing James Neal is the only one of the Golden Knights’ top six scorers who has played in a Stanley Cup final.

Thanks to the division-based playoff format, only one team between the Lightning and the Bruins can advance past the second round. The Atlantic Division race will be worth monitoring as Tampa Bay, led by right wing Nikita Kucherov, and Boston, led by the likes of left wing Brad Marchand, are both near the top of the NHL in points percentage and goal differential. Each of the last 10 Stanley Cup winners has had a goal differential of at least +25, meaning that yes, the regular season does count to some extent.

The Maple Leafs have a Vezina Trophy candidate in Frederik Andersen, but only twice in the last 20 years has the league’s top goalie led his team to the Cup.

The Penguins and captain extraordinaire Sidney Crosby are coming on strongly in the Metropolitan Division and, of course, seem to have the Capitals’ number in the playoffs. No team has won three Cups in a row since the 1976-79 Montreal Canadiens won four straight in a league that was barely half the size of the current 31-team circuit.

While Nashville and Winnipeg are separated by 1,300 miles and an international border, their playoff roads could also go through each other in the Central Division. The price on the Predators and defenseman P.K. Subban probably reflects the track record they built while coming within two games of hoisting the Stanley Cup a season ago.

Winnipeg is an intriguing dark horse that has stayed near the top of the division and Western Conference even though No. 1 center Mark Scheifele has missed about a quarter of the schedule due to injury.

Teams that can be probably be crossed off include the sagging Chicago Blackhawks (+5000), Carolina Hurricanes (+5000) and New York Rangers (+5000). All three will probably be cashing in some trade chips this month as they try to retool.

For more odds info, picks and a breakdown of this week’s top sports betting news check out the OddsShark podcast with Jon Campbell and Andrew Avery. Subscribe on iTunes, or check it out at OddsShark.libsyn.com.

Golden Knights betting favorites for Game 5 of the Stanley Cup Final

AP
Leave a comment

Being up three games to one has often been a dangerous series lead for the Washington Capitals, which might be why the Vegas Golden Knights are favored to stave off elimination in the Stanley Cup final on Thursday night.

 

While Washington is one win away from its first Stanley Cup, the Golden Knights are a -145 moneyline favorite and the Capitals come back as a +125 underdog with a 5.5-goal total for Game 5 at sportsbooks monitored by OddsShark.com.

 

In the league’s history, teams that have been up 3-1 in the Stanley Cup final have gone on to win the championship 32 of 33 times, including 31 in a row.

 

More in the here and now, Washington is 9-3 in 12 away games during the playoffs. Three of the four teams that had 10 road wins in a single postseason have won the Stanley Cup. Vegas is 7-3 in its last 10 home games as moneyline favorite of -135 to -200, according to the OddsShark NHL Database.

 

The Capitals franchise has the dubious distinction of having lost five playoff series after leading 3-1, which is an NHL record. However, Washington’s top three centers, Evgeny Kuznetsov (playoff-leading 31 points), Nicklas Backstrom and Lars Eller, have generally outplayed their Vegas counterparts in this series.

 

Washington goalie Braden Holtby has a 2.13 goals-against average and .923 save percentage in the playoffs, with two shutouts.

 

The basis for backing the Golden Knights is that they have lacked puck luck, never more so than when left wing James Neal hit the post with a wide-open net when Game 4 was still scoreless on Monday. Top-line center William Karlsson, who did not practice on Wednesday, has been struggling, with only five recorded shots in four games during the Stanley Cup final and only three points in Vegas’ last seven games, well below his averages for the full season.

 

Vegas’ second and third lines, centered by Erik Haula and Cody Eakin, haven’t been able to cover for the dip in production from the Karlsson line.

 

Vegas goalie Marc-Andre Fleury has a 2.15 goals-against average and .929 save percentage with four shutouts in the playoffs. Fleury’s average has risen by almost half a goal during the last four games.

 

While it’s a small sample, the Capitals have had the special teams edge, as their power play is 4-for-12 (33.3 per cent) in the series. The Golden Knights are 2-for-12 (16.7 per cent).

 

The total has gone under in 14 of the Capitals’ last 18 games against Pacific Division teams. The total has also gone under in seven of the Golden Knights’ last seven games against Eastern Conference teams.

 

If Vegas wins and avoids elimination, the Capitals will host Game 6 on Sunday.

 

For more odds information, betting picks and a breakdown of this week’s top sports betting news check out the OddsShark podcast with Jon Campbell and Andrew Avery. Subscribe on iTunes or listen to it at OddsShark.libsyn.com.

 

Stanley Cup Final heads to Washington with Capitals Game 3 betting favorites

Leave a comment

The Vegas Golden Knights have produced value for bettors by playing the perfect road game, while the Washington Capitals are dealing with an injury to first-line center Evgeny Kuznetsov.

The Capitals are a -125 moneyline favorite while the Golden Knights are a +105 underdog and the total is at 5.5 for Game 3 of the Stanley Cup Final at sportsbooks monitored by OddsShark.com. The teams head into the matchup at Capital One Arena on Saturday with a two-day respite since splitting two games on Vegas’ home ice, reducing the NHL championship series to a best-of-5.

The OddsShark NHL Database notes that the Golden Knights, a first-year expansion team, are 6-2 in their last eight games as an away underdog. The under has hit in five of those contests, with two pushes. The Capitals are 2-4 in their last six home games as a favorite of -100 to -130. Overall, Washington is 4-5 at home during the playoffs, which suggests there is a strong chance of the series being tied again after Game 4.

The Golden Knights were only 8-8 during their 16 road games against Eastern Conference teams and bettors must decide whether their road record in the playoffs reflects more on their talent or how Vegas matched up with early-rounds opponents who had less team speed.

Vegas has a 73-54 edge in recorded shots on goal so far in the series, but its William Karlsson-Jonathan Marchessault-Reilly Smith first line will need to be creative to get loose from the Capitals’ mobile defense unit.

Vegas goalie Marc-Andre Fleury has a 1.88 goals-against average and a .939 save percentage in the playoffs after allowing seven goals on 54 shots in the past two games. Fleury has not gone three games in a row all season with save percentages of less than .900.

For the Capitals, their foremost concern is whether Kuznetsov, who practiced on Friday after coming out of Game 2 early holding his left arm, will be able to take his No. 1 center spot between left wing Alex Ovechkin and right wing Tom Wilson. The Capitals’ adjustment during Game 2 was to put Nicklas Backstrom up on the Ovechkin line, with rookie left wing Jakub Vrana helping the second line generate more shot attempts than their Vegas counterparts.

Washington goalie Braden Holtby has a 2.19 goals-against average and .921 save percentage during the playoffs. Holtby is coming off a 37-save performance during Washington’s win in Game 2 and also had a shutout in the Capitals’ previous home game.

The total has gone under in Vegas’ last five road games against Eastern Conference teams, although the most recent contest in the sample was on March 12. The total has gone over in six of Washington’s last nine home games against Western Conference teams

For more odds information, betting picks and a breakdown of this week’s top sports betting news check out the OddsShark podcast with Jon Campbell and Andrew Avery. Subscribe on iTunes or listen to it at OddsShark.libsyn.com.