Super Bowl Odds Update: Brady, Patriots stable betting favorites for Sunday

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Tom Brady will have a fully healthy Rob Gronkowski alongside him as he tries to defy both Father Time and some dubious history for prolific passers in the Super Bowl.

No news is apparently good news regarding the Super Bowl LII betting matchup for Sunday, as neither the Patriots nor the Eagles listed a single player on the injury report in advance of the championship game, which takes place at U.S. Bank Stadium in Minneapolis on Sunday. That left the lines stable, with the defending champion Patriots listed as 4.5-point favorites with a 48-point total at sportsbooks monitored by OddsShark.com.

Brady and the Patriots are shooting for a record-tying sixth Super Bowl win. Brady is also trying to become the first quarterback to lead the league in passing yards and lead his team to the championship in the same season. Teams with the league’s most prolific passer are 0-5 straight-up all-time in Super Bowls.

The Eagles, who are 15-3 SU and 12-6 against the spread, are an underdog for the seventh time this season. The good news, for Eagles backers and/or Patriots loathers, is that they are 4-2 both SU and ATS as a ‘dog this season, with one of the losses coming in a nothing game in Week 17.

While quarterback Nick Foles can run hot and cold, his offensive line has protected him very well so far in the playoffs. The Patriots, who were eighth in the league in sacks but 25th in yards per pass attempt allowed, cannot afford to give a quarterback time to make his reads.

Philadelphia’s most-used running back, Jay Ajayi (ankle), should be 100 percent by kickoff. The Eagles have had some key pieces on defense, cornerback Ronald Darby and defensive tackle Tim Jernigan, each need days off due to illness but each also practiced fully on Friday.

The Patriots, who are 15-3 SU and 12-6 ATS, have the edge in experience, with 31 players retained from the 2016 championship team, as well as the seven Super Bowl trips over the previous 16 years for the game-day brain trust of head coach Bill Belichick and Brady – the focus of many of the Super Bowl 52 prop bets set for Sunday.

Brady, despite seeing Gronkowski go down, did thrive in the AFC Championship Game against a Jacksonville Jaguars defense that was second in the NFL at 6.0 yards per pass allowed, just ahead of the Eagles’ 6.5. The Patriots might have to be pass-happy in order to negate an Eagles defensive front led by Fletcher Cox, and Philadelphia is decidedly average at covering tight ends and slot receivers – a spot where New England is in good hands thanks to Gronkowski and Danny Amendola.

Bettors will have to decide how pertinent the many positive Patriots trends are to this particular matchup. The Patriots are 9-1 SU and ATS in their last 10 games after an against-the-spread loss, but their last Super Bowl loss, in 2012, came after they did not cover in the AFC Championship Game. The Patriots are also 14-2 SU in their last 16 games after losing the previous game in a matchup, but that 2015 defeat against Philadelphia did not involve the current Eagles coaching staff under Doug Pederson.

The total has gone over in seven of the Eagles’ last nine games as underdogs, according to the OddsShark NFL Database. Meanwhile, the total has gone under in 10 of the Patriots’ last 14 games.

For more odds info, picks and a breakdown of this week’s top sports betting news check out the OddsShark podcast with Jon Campbell and Andrew Avery. Subscribe on iTunes, or check it out at OddsShark.libsyn.com.

SNF Odds: Patriots favored by touchdown over Lions

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It’s not unusual for the New England Patriots to lay a touchdown as a road team – it just normally comes later in the season, which might raise a red flag about the underdog Detroit Lions.

The Patriots, with quarterback Tom Brady behind centre, are 7-point road favorites against the Detroit Lions with a 53.5-point total for Sunday Night Football, according to sportsbooks monitored by OddsShark.com.

Over the last three seasons, according to the OddsShark NFL Database, the Patriots are 8-1 straight-up and 6-3 against the spread as a road favorite of 6.5 or more points, but this is only the second time they have had such a large line before October 1. The Lions, led by quarterback Matthew Stafford, are 0-5 SU and 1-4 ATS in their last five games as an underdog.

The primetime matchup sees Patriots head coach Bill Belichick match wits with Lions head coach Matt Patricia, who was previously New England’s defensive coordinator. Under Belichick, the Patriots are 12-6 SU and 11-7 ATS in matchups against teams whose head coach once worked for the Patriots.

The main question offensively with the Patriots, 1-1 SU and ATS, is whether Brady’s complement of wide receivers, which includes Chris Hogan and Phillip Dorsett, are dangerous enough to draw attention away from tight end Rob Gronkowski. The good news for New England is the Lions have yet to show they can stop the pass or the run, ranking fifth-worst in the NFL in yards per pass allowed and third-last in opponents’ passer rating, and dead last in rushing yards allowed.

Newly acquired wide receiver Josh Gordon (hamstring) is listed as questionable on the team’s injury report for the week. Since 2000, the Patriots are 21-6 ATS after a double-digit defeat. They lost 31-20 against the Jacksonville Jaguars in Week 2.

The Lions, who are 0-2 SU and 1-1 ATS, have had to play catch-up during both of their games due to the aforementioned dismal defense and the offense having six turnovers. The fact that the Lions are 7-2 SU in their last nine games at home after losing their most recent home game offers some reassurance that quarterback Matthew Stafford and his supporting cast of wide receivers Marvin Jones and Golden Tate should have a strong night.

The Patriots defense has also been leaky so far, ranking 13th in yards per pass allowed but 25th in yards per rush, so Detroit has an opportunity to use running backs LeGarrette Blount and Theo Riddick effectively and keep Stafford out of desperate down-and-distance scenarios.

This is already the Lions’ second prime-time game of the season, but they are 5-12-1 ATS in 18 games at night with Stafford as their quarterback.

The total has gone UNDER in eight of the Patriots’ last 10 road games when they were favored by at least 6.5 points, but all of those games were played outdoors on October 15 or later in the fall. The total has gone OVER in eight of the Lions’ last 10 games at home, with an average combined score of 51.1.

For more odds information, betting picks and a breakdown of this week’s top sports betting news check out the OddsShark podcast with Jon Campbell and Andrew Avery. Subscribe on iTunes or listen to it at OddsShark.libsyn.com.

 

Cowboys field-goal favorites on NFL odds for Sunday Night Football

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While the total has been a sure thing in one of the NFL’s oldest rivalries, bettors will have to decide whether to trust the Dallas Cowboys’ recent favorite trend or a longer-term issue as a slim favorite on home turf.

The Cowboys and quarterback Dak Prescott are 3-point betting favorites on the NFL odds against the New York Giants with a 42.5-point total in the NFL Sunday Night Football matchup, according to sportsbooks monitored by OddsShark.com.

Both NFC East rivals are coming off low-scoring defeats in their season openers, and the OddsShark NFL Database affirms that the Cowboys are 6-1 straight-up and 5-1-1 against the spread in their last seven games as a favorite. However, since Jason Garrett became their head coach, they are 3-8 both SU and ATS in home games as a favorite of 3.0 or less.

The season is only a week old, but the Giants, with quarterback Eli Manning now in his 15th season behind center, still seem shaky along the offensive line after a 20-15 loss against the Jacksonville Jaguars during their opener. The O-line issues are a contributor to the Giants being 2-9 SU and 3-7-1 ATS in their last 11 away games against the NFC East.

Up front this time around, right tackle Ereck Flowers will have a challenge limiting Cowboys defensive end DeMarcus Lawrence. On the plus side for the Giants, they have superior individual talent in both the rushing and passing phases with running back Saquon Barkley and wide receiver Odell Beckham Jr., which means they always have an outside shot at pulling an upset.

The Cowboys, who lost 16-8 to the Carolina Panthers during Week 1, are facing doubts about the productivity of their passing game. Dallas has averaged 18.75 points against New York in four games started by Prescott. The once-vaunted offensive line has new parts with rookie left guard Connor Williams and center Joe Looney replacing Travis Frederick (Guillain-Barre Syndrome) and allowed six sacks against Carolina.

However, the Giants defense had only one sack last week and was nearly dead-last in the NFL in that defensive category last season. If the Cowboys keep the first-down chains moving with running back Ezekiel Elliott – they are 10-2 SU when he gains at least 100 yards – then it will help Prescott settle in and find wide receivers Allen Hurns and Terrance Williams.

The Cowboys are 7-3 straight-up in their last 10 games against the Giants, including 4-1 SU at home.

This matchup has been a throwback on the scoreboard. The total has gone UNDER in the Giants’ last four games against the Cowboys, with an average combined score of 29.5. The total has gone UNDER in seven of the Giants’ last eight games. The total has also gone UNDER in the Cowboys’ last five games.

For more odds information, betting picks and a breakdown of this week’s top sports betting news check out the OddsShark podcast with Jon Campbell and Andrew Avery. Subscribe on iTunes or listen to it at OddsShark.libsyn.com.