Super Bowl odds: Patriots favored over Eagles

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With the big game just 10 days away, the New England Patriots and quarterback Tom Brady are listed as 5-point favorites on the Super Bowl betting lines at sportsbooks monitored by OddsShark.com against the Philadelphia Eagles with a 48-point total.

New England did not cover the spread during the AFC Championship Game, but the Patriots are 9-1 straight-up and against the spread in their last 10 games after an ATS loss. The Patriots also have that same sample of 9-1 SU and ATS in their last 10 games when they were favored by 3.5 to 6.5 points – between a field goal and touchdown margin – at kickoff.

The game takes place at U.S. Bank Stadium in Minneapolis on February 4. New England opened as a six-point favorite. One reason that the line has inched closer to parity is that tight end Rob Gronkowski has to complete the NFL concussion protocol. Brady was not on the injury report released Wednesday.

The case for the Eagles, who are 15-3 SU and 12-6 ATS, to fulfill their betting value as the underdog starts with QB Nick Foles and his execution of the run-pass option (RPO) scheme, which discombobulated the Minnesota Vikings, whose defense was No. 1 in the regular season, during the NFC Championship Game.

New England’s weak spots defensively are outside containment and defending passes in the middle of the field, or at least that was the case before they went into playoff mode.

The Eagles, who are 4-1 SU and ATS in their last five games as an underdog, will need to avoid becoming predictable and spread the touches among playmakers such as running back Jay Ajayi, wideouts Alshon Jeffery and Torrey Smith and slot receiver Nelson Algohor.

Philadelphia middle linebacker Dannell Ellerbee (hamstring) has resumed practicing after missing the Minnesota game. Bettors who buy into conference strength have likely noticed the Eagles are 13-4 ATS in their last 17 games against the AFC.

The Patriots, who are going for a record-tying sixth Super Bowl title, are also 15-3 SU and 12-6 ATS and have a massive edge in collective experience with the Super Bowl, where they are 5-2 SU under coach Bill Belichick.

New England squeaked through the AFC Championship Game against the Jacksonville Jaguars thanks to its offensive line, led by center David Andrews and left tackle Nate Solder, limiting the pressure Brady faced from the Jaguars, whose average of 3.44 sacks per game in the regular season was much higher than the 2.38 of the Eagles, whose front four includes a top defensive tackle in Fletcher Cox.

Given time, Brady can still pick apart defenses with passes to the likes of wide receivers Danny Amendola and Brandin Cooks, running back Dion Lewis, and of course Gronkowski.

On paper, New England’s “efficient enough” running game built around Lewis and James White has a tough matchup against Philadelphia’s No. 1-ranked rushing defense. But New England – just ask the Atlanta Falcons – has won Super Bowls while being pass-heavy.

One probably shouldn’t read too much into the fact that Philadelphia beat New England in the teams’ last meeting on December 6, 2015, since the Patriots are 14-2 SU in their last 16 games after losing the previous game in a matchup.

This will be the first game for either team at U.S. Bank Stadium, which opened in 2016.

The total has gone under in five of the Eagles’ last seven games after a win, but it has gone over in seven of their last nine games as an underdog. The total has gone under in 10 of the Patriots’ last 14 games.

For more odds info, picks and a breakdown of this week’s top sports betting news check out the OddsShark podcast with Jon Campbell and Andrew Avery. Subscribe on iTunes, or check it out at OddsShark.libsyn.com.

Patriots settle as small favorites on Super Bowl odds 2019

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For all the narratives that can hang off the great Tom Brady and Super Bowl first-timer Jared Goff, two of the big moving parts in the matchup on Super Sunday involve the rushing phase.

The New England Patriots have settled as 2.5-point favorites on the Super Bowl odds 2019 against the Los Angeles Rams with a 56.5-point total at sportsbooks monitored by OddsShark.com in the Super Bowl 53 matchup slated for Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta on Sunday.

The Bill Belichick- and Brady-led Patriots are 6-2 against the spread in their last eight games as a favorite of 3.0 or fewer points, according to the OddsShark NFL Database, while the Rams are 4-3 straight-up and ATS in their last seven games as an underdog. Interestingly enough, underdogs are 13-4 ATS in the last 17 Super Bowl games.

As so often happens, the last two teams standings are in good health. The biggest exception for New England, whose run defense has been league-average much of the season, is that defensive tackle Malcom Brown (calf) was limited in practice. The Rams claim leading rusher Todd Gurley (left knee inflammation) is 100 per cent after he had only five touches during the NFC championship game two weeks ago.

Backing the Patriots, who are 13-5 SU and 11-7 ATS on the year, involves putting stock in Brady and cohorts’ abundant Super Bowl experience, along with the fact the offense has been at peak form, averaging 38.7 points and 465.7 yards per game over its last three outings.

The Patriots’ offensive line will arguably be the unofficial playoff MVP, collectively, if it contains the Rams’ front four anchored by Aaron Donald, the best defensive lineman in football. If Brady, the subject of many Super Bowl props for Sunday, isn’t disrupted and/or the opposing pass rush is sucking wind after a ball-control drive, the Patriots passing game is lethal.

The Rams, 15-3 SU and 9-7-2 ATS, are new to the tumult of the Super Bowl. However, head coach Sean McVay thrives at creating mismatches, and two of the Rams’ season-long strengths, running out one-back, one-tight end sets and using play-action passes, are not tactics that New England has defended particularly well.

Goff also led five game-winning drives during the season, emerging victorious in quarterback matchups against stars such as Drew Brees, Patrick Mahomes and Russell Wilson (twice).

The total has gone OVER in seven of the Patriots’ last eight games in the playoffs. New England’s last four closely contested playoff games have featured 68, 74, 44 and 62 points.

For more odds information, betting picks and a breakdown of this week’s top sports betting news check out the OddsShark podcast with Jon Campbell and Andrew Avery. Subscribe on iTunes or Spotify or listen to it at OddsShark.libsyn.com.

First commercial, Trump Tweets, Gatorade color among Super Bowl LIII props

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Fans watch the Super Bowl for the commercials as much as the game, which also lends itself to Super Bowl props.

For instance, Bud Light is the -105 favorite have a commercial appear first during the telecast at sportsbooks monitored by OddsShark.com. The brewer has a long track record of attention-getting ads, and making a first impression can whet the appetite for something later on in the evening.

Budweiser (+200) is a second favorite on that prop and there might be longshot value on Stella Artois (+550), whose ad will include Jeff Bridges and Sarah Jessica Parker reprising their respective roles from The Big Lebowski and Sex and the City. Michelob Ultra (+550) and Bon & Viv Spiked Seltzer (+550) are also on the board.

The total number of commercials is set at 96, with both the over and under priced at -120. In the car commercial prop, Hyundai (-250) is favored against Mercedes-Benz (+170), but it might be worth playing a hunch since the February 3 game is at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta.

Atlanta has also been hit by wintry weather this week, and it’s -140 on the Super Bowl 2019 prop bets on the stadium’s roof being closed against even money for open.

The previous two championship matchups each had over 60 points scored, and the New England Patriots and Los Angeles Rams are certainly capable of trading touchdowns. It is -140 that any scoring drive will consume less game time than however long it will take Gladys Knight to perform The Star-Spangled Banner.

As far as coach props, the over/under is 1.5 on broadcaster references to the relative youthfulness of 33-year-old Rams coach Sean McVay, with the over (-220) favored against the under (+155). Los Angeles is the underdog on the 2019 Super Bowl odds.

There is also a total set for the number of tweets from President Donald Trump’s Twitter account during the big game. Over 6.0 tweets is a -140 favorite with the under an even-money underdog. It is -650 on Trump not attending the game and +375 on him showing up. He did not attend Super Bowl LII in 2018.

A cross-sport bet is whether Houston Rockets star James Harden’s streak of 30-point games – 24 and counting – will end before Super Bowl LIII does, with -120 odds either way. Harden’s next two opponents, the Denver Nuggets and Utah Jazz, have each managed to keep him under 30 at least once this season.

As far as props that pay off postgame are concerned, there is the ever-popular bet on what color liquid the winning coach will be doused in after the game. Clear / water (+220) is a slim favorite over lime / green / yellow (+225), followed by orange (+400), blue (+400), red (+600) and purple (+1000). The Patriots, for what it might be worth, have poured a clear liquid on coach Bill Belichick following each of their four most recent Super Bowl wins.

For more odds information, betting picks and a breakdown of this week’s top sports betting news check out the OddsShark podcast with Jon Campbell and Andrew Avery. Subscribe on iTunes or Spotify or listen to it at OddsShark.libsyn.com.