Visiting Vikings Heavy Favorites at Lambeau Field for Saturday Night

Leave a comment

The Minnesota Vikings-Green Bay Packers rivalry hasn’t seen a spread like this in three decades.

With the playing-for-pride Packers shutting down franchise QB Aaron Rodgers for the season, the Vikings are listed as 9-point road favorites at sportsbooks monitored by OddsShark.com against Green Bay with a 40-point total in a Saturday matchup on the NFL Week 16 schedule.

According to the OddsShark NFL Database, this is the first time since 2000 the Vikings have gone into Green Bay as the favorite. It is also the most points the Packers have been spotted for a home game since 1988.

Minnesota is 6-3 straight-up and 5-4 against the spread over their last nine games as a road favorite. Green Bay, with Brett Hundley back as the starting quarterback, are 1-6 SU and 1-5-1 ATS in their last seven games as a home underdog.

With a forecast high of 20 degrees, the weather will be a factor for both offenses, but the Vikings, who are 11-3 SU and 10-4 ATS, don’t fit the stereotype of dome teams. Many members of QB Case Keenum’s complement of receivers – including WR Stefon Diggs, WR Adam Thielen, RB Jerick McKinnon and TE Kyle Rudolph – were around when Minnesota played in the elements in 2015.

Depending on how much of an equalization the conditions become, Keenum and Co. should have a matchup edge since the Packers give up 7.8 yards per pass, fourth-worst in the NFL.

The Vikings, if LT Riley Rieff (ankle) returns, should have their entire offensive line whole again. Minnesota has a good-but-great ground game with Latavius Murray and McKinnon and the Packers are limiting teams to just 4.0 yards per rush, ninth in the NFL.

The prospects for the Packers, who are 7-7 SU and ATS, getting a shot at the cover or the outright victory likely come down to the production of Hundley and the protection of his offensive line. Instability with the latter is why Green Bay has allowed way too many sacks (46) this season, but they are relatively healthy.

With Davante Adams in the concussion protocol, Green Bay will likely be counting on the WR trio of Randall Cobb, Jordy Nelson and Geronimo Allison to find slews of space against Minnesota’s second-ranked defense, whose 5.9 yards per pass allowed is also second in the NFL.

Green Bay, which is 4-2 ATS in its last six games, has an above-average rushing attack with the Jamaal Williams-Aaron Jones tandem. Whether they get to use it against the Vikings, whose 3.7 yards allowed per rush is also second in the NFL, depends on not falling behind and containing Minnesota early.

Bettors should keep an eye on the total as kickoff approaches. The over is 19-14-3 in 36 NFL games this season that had a closing total of less than 40.

The total has gone over in four of the Vikings’ last five games as road favorites. The closing totals in those games ranged between 38.0 and 40.5 – similar to the total for this matchup. The total has gone over in the Packers’ last six games in December.

For more info, picks and a breakdown of this week’s top sports betting news check out the new OddsShark podcast with Jon Campbell and Andrew Avery. Subscribe on iTunes, or check it out at OddsShark.libsyn.com.

Sunday Night Football odds favor Patriots hosting unbeaten Chiefs

Leave a comment

It’s rare for an unbeaten team to be an underdog this far into the NFL season, and the Kansas City Chiefs have thrived when they get points.

The New England Patriots, led by Tom Brady, are 3.5-point favorites on the Sunday Night Football odds against Kansas City with a 59.5-point total at sportsbooks monitored by OddsShark.com.

The line isn’t entirely based on mystique, as the OddsShark NFL Database shows that the Patriots are 10-0 straight-up and 9-1 against the spread in their last 10 home games with an average winning margin of 16.0 points, as well as 10-4 ATS in their last 14 games at night. However, the Chiefs and dynamic young quarterback Patrick Mahomes II also have some eye-popping trends, such as being 7-1 SU and ATS in their last eight games as an underdog.

The Chiefs, who have covered every week this season, are also 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games after consecutive ATS wins.

Kansas City, which is 5-0 SU and ATS on the year, has not been contained offensively for four quarters this season, with Mahomes showing one of the livest passing arms the NFL has seen since Aaron Rodgers came into the league. Mahomes and his blocking group will be facing a limited pass rush with the third-fewest sacks in the NFL, although New England is holding opponents to 6.6 yards per pass, third-best in the league.

Running back Kareem Hunt torched the Patriots during a Kansas City win in 2017, and the Patriots’ focus on tight end Travis Kelce could create favorable matchups for Tyreek Hill. The bottom line is that the Chiefs have the capability to win a shootout.

Only three quarterbacks under age 25 have defeated the Patriots at Gillette Stadium in the Bill Belichick era – the Baltimore Ravens’ Joe Flacco and the New York Jets’ Mark Sanchez in 2009 and 2010 playoff games, and Colin Kaepernick in 2012 when the San Francisco 49ers were an eventual Super Bowl runner-up.

New England, which is 3-2 SU and 3-2 ATS, typically rounds into form around this stage of this season, as evidenced by a record of 10-2 SU and 8-3-1 ATS in their last 12 home games in October. Brady’s offense is facing a Chiefs defense that is hollowed-out at a linebacker and safety with Justin Houston (hamstring) and Eric Berry (heel) both considered doubtful.

The Chiefs have allowed the most yards in the NFL and New England, based on its track record, should be closer to the sum of its parts in the passing phase with tight end Rob Gronkowski and wide receivers Julian Edelman and Josh Gordon playing their second game of the season together.

Kansas City’s defensive issues could affect the total, although perhaps not in the way one might expect. The Chiefs are yielding an NFL-worst 5.8 yards per rush and the Patriots may try to grind down the tempo with Brady’s short passing game and runs by rookie running back Sony Michel.

The total has gone OVER in 10 of the Chiefs’ last 14 games at night. The total has gone OVER in six of the Chiefs’ last eight road games as the underdog. The total has gone OVER in seven of the Patriots’ last 10 games at home against teams with winning records.

For more odds information, betting picks and a breakdown of this week’s top sports betting news check out the OddsShark podcast with Jon Campbell and Andrew Avery. Subscribe on iTunes or Spotify or listen to it at OddsShark.libsyn.com.

How to watch Chiefs vs. Patriots on Sunday Night Football

Leave a comment

The New England Patriots are set to host the undefeated Kansas City Chiefs in a heavyweight showdown on Sunday Night Football, which airs Sunday at 8:20 p.m. ET.

Tom Brady and the Patriots (3-2) come into this big matchup on a two-game winning streak after taking care of business against the Dolphins and Colts at home. More importantly, New England’s offense is starting to hit its stride after trading for wide receiver Josh Gordon and getting wide receiver Julan Edelman back from suspension. Those two weapons, combined with tight end Rob Gronkowski, running back James White, and the emergence of rookie running back Sony Michel give Brady plenty of options in the passing game. However, it remains to be seen if they can keep up with the high-scoring Chiefs.

More coverage of Sunday Night Football

Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs (5-0) have taken the NFL by storm. Mahomes began the season by throwing touchdowns at a record pace (13 through Week 3) and didn’t throw his first interception until he faced the vaunted Jaguars defense in Week 5. Similar to Brady, the second-year gunslinger has a plethora of weapons at his disposal, including running back Kareem Hunt and tight end Travis Kelce, in addition to wide receivers Tyreek Hill and Sammy Watkins. With so much offensive firepower on both sides of the field, this game could come down to whichever quarterback gets the ball last.

Pregame coverage of Chiefs-Patriots and a recap of Week 6 begins with Football Night in America at 7:00 p.m. ET on NBC.

How to watch Sunday Night Football:

What: Kansas City Chiefs vs. New England Patriots

When: Sunday, October 14, 2018

Football Night in America: 7:00 p.m. ET

SNF kickoff: 8:20 p.m ET

Where to watch: NBC, or right here