Eagles face big test as road favorites at Seattle on Sunday night

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This might be a week to expect regression from the Philadelphia Eagles, who are in rarefied territory in betting trends and in hostile territory on the field with a primetime road game against the Seattle Seahawks.

The Eagles and quarterback Carson Wentz are listed as 5.5-point road favorites against the Russell Wilson-led Seahawks with a 47-point total for the NFL’s Week 13 Sunday Night Football  matchup at sportsbooks monitored by OddsShark.com.

Philadelphia, which is on an 8-0 streak against the spread, is threatening to become just the fourth team in the last 10 seasons to notch nine covers in a row.

The favored team is 7-2 both straight-up and ATS in the last nine editions of this matchup, according to the OddsShark NFL Database, but Seattle has some strong personal trends. The Seahawks, who are home underdogs for the first time since 2012, are 23-9-2 in their last 34 games as the underdog, as well as 21-5 ATS in their last 26 games in December.

The Eagles, who are an NFL-best 10-1 SU and 9-2 ATS, can likely look forward to the Seahawks trying to force Wentz and his receivers to beat them with the pass. Philadelphia running backs such as LeGarrette Blount and Jay Ajayi might see fewer opportunities than usual to get into the open field against a front seven strengthened by defensive tackles Jarran Reed and Sheldon Richardson, along with middle linebacker Bobby Wagner.

Seattle will likely have free safety Earl Thomas back, but the secondary has still been prone to lapses in pass defense, so look for tight end Zach Ertz and the Eagles receiving corps to exploit some busted coverages.

The likelihood of the Seahawks, who are 7-4 SU and 4-6-1 ATS, coming through with a cover – or outright win – will be pegged on whether Russell Wilson’s ability to scramble can frustrate the Eagles’ sixth-ranked defense. Seattle is 10-3 SU and 9-4 ATS in December home games since 2012, when Wilson took over as starting quarterback.

While Seattle finally does have left tackle Duane Brown and left guard Luke Joeckel side by side, Eagles defensive tackle Fletcher Cox and defensive end Brandon Graham usually play on the other end of the line and will have the chance to blow up a few plays. Seattle’s running game, which is just 23rd in the NFL in yards per rush, will likely struggle against an Eagles defense that is allowing the fourth-lowest yards per rush.

However, the Eagles haven’t seen a quarterback as resourceful as Wilson, so Doug Baldwin, Jimmy Graham and Paul Richardson are likely to get some big opportunities.

The total has gone under in three of the Eagles’ last four games against the Seahawks, while the total has gone under in 13 of the Seahawks’ last 18 games in December.

For more info, picks and a breakdown of this week’s top sports betting news check out the new OddsShark podcast with Jon Campbell and Andrew Avery. Subscribe on iTunes, or check it out at OddsShark.libsyn.com.

Patriots settle as small favorites on Super Bowl odds 2019

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For all the narratives that can hang off the great Tom Brady and Super Bowl first-timer Jared Goff, two of the big moving parts in the matchup on Super Sunday involve the rushing phase.

The New England Patriots have settled as 2.5-point favorites on the Super Bowl odds 2019 against the Los Angeles Rams with a 56.5-point total at sportsbooks monitored by OddsShark.com in the Super Bowl 53 matchup slated for Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta on Sunday.

The Bill Belichick- and Brady-led Patriots are 6-2 against the spread in their last eight games as a favorite of 3.0 or fewer points, according to the OddsShark NFL Database, while the Rams are 4-3 straight-up and ATS in their last seven games as an underdog. Interestingly enough, underdogs are 13-4 ATS in the last 17 Super Bowl games.

As so often happens, the last two teams standings are in good health. The biggest exception for New England, whose run defense has been league-average much of the season, is that defensive tackle Malcom Brown (calf) was limited in practice. The Rams claim leading rusher Todd Gurley (left knee inflammation) is 100 per cent after he had only five touches during the NFC championship game two weeks ago.

Backing the Patriots, who are 13-5 SU and 11-7 ATS on the year, involves putting stock in Brady and cohorts’ abundant Super Bowl experience, along with the fact the offense has been at peak form, averaging 38.7 points and 465.7 yards per game over its last three outings.

The Patriots’ offensive line will arguably be the unofficial playoff MVP, collectively, if it contains the Rams’ front four anchored by Aaron Donald, the best defensive lineman in football. If Brady, the subject of many Super Bowl props for Sunday, isn’t disrupted and/or the opposing pass rush is sucking wind after a ball-control drive, the Patriots passing game is lethal.

The Rams, 15-3 SU and 9-7-2 ATS, are new to the tumult of the Super Bowl. However, head coach Sean McVay thrives at creating mismatches, and two of the Rams’ season-long strengths, running out one-back, one-tight end sets and using play-action passes, are not tactics that New England has defended particularly well.

Goff also led five game-winning drives during the season, emerging victorious in quarterback matchups against stars such as Drew Brees, Patrick Mahomes and Russell Wilson (twice).

The total has gone OVER in seven of the Patriots’ last eight games in the playoffs. New England’s last four closely contested playoff games have featured 68, 74, 44 and 62 points.

For more odds information, betting picks and a breakdown of this week’s top sports betting news check out the OddsShark podcast with Jon Campbell and Andrew Avery. Subscribe on iTunes or Spotify or listen to it at OddsShark.libsyn.com.

First commercial, Trump Tweets, Gatorade color among Super Bowl LIII props

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Fans watch the Super Bowl for the commercials as much as the game, which also lends itself to Super Bowl props.

For instance, Bud Light is the -105 favorite have a commercial appear first during the telecast at sportsbooks monitored by OddsShark.com. The brewer has a long track record of attention-getting ads, and making a first impression can whet the appetite for something later on in the evening.

Budweiser (+200) is a second favorite on that prop and there might be longshot value on Stella Artois (+550), whose ad will include Jeff Bridges and Sarah Jessica Parker reprising their respective roles from The Big Lebowski and Sex and the City. Michelob Ultra (+550) and Bon & Viv Spiked Seltzer (+550) are also on the board.

The total number of commercials is set at 96, with both the over and under priced at -120. In the car commercial prop, Hyundai (-250) is favored against Mercedes-Benz (+170), but it might be worth playing a hunch since the February 3 game is at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta.

Atlanta has also been hit by wintry weather this week, and it’s -140 on the Super Bowl 2019 prop bets on the stadium’s roof being closed against even money for open.

The previous two championship matchups each had over 60 points scored, and the New England Patriots and Los Angeles Rams are certainly capable of trading touchdowns. It is -140 that any scoring drive will consume less game time than however long it will take Gladys Knight to perform The Star-Spangled Banner.

As far as coach props, the over/under is 1.5 on broadcaster references to the relative youthfulness of 33-year-old Rams coach Sean McVay, with the over (-220) favored against the under (+155). Los Angeles is the underdog on the 2019 Super Bowl odds.

There is also a total set for the number of tweets from President Donald Trump’s Twitter account during the big game. Over 6.0 tweets is a -140 favorite with the under an even-money underdog. It is -650 on Trump not attending the game and +375 on him showing up. He did not attend Super Bowl LII in 2018.

A cross-sport bet is whether Houston Rockets star James Harden’s streak of 30-point games – 24 and counting – will end before Super Bowl LIII does, with -120 odds either way. Harden’s next two opponents, the Denver Nuggets and Utah Jazz, have each managed to keep him under 30 at least once this season.

As far as props that pay off postgame are concerned, there is the ever-popular bet on what color liquid the winning coach will be doused in after the game. Clear / water (+220) is a slim favorite over lime / green / yellow (+225), followed by orange (+400), blue (+400), red (+600) and purple (+1000). The Patriots, for what it might be worth, have poured a clear liquid on coach Bill Belichick following each of their four most recent Super Bowl wins.

For more odds information, betting picks and a breakdown of this week’s top sports betting news check out the OddsShark podcast with Jon Campbell and Andrew Avery. Subscribe on iTunes or Spotify or listen to it at OddsShark.libsyn.com.