Washington improves to betting favorite at Cowboys for Thursday Night Football

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Kirk Cousins has played well in Dallas, while the Cowboys and Dak Prescott haven’t performed well anywhere lately.

Washington, with quarterback Cousins at the controls, has improved to a one-point road favorite against the Dallas Cowboys with a 44-point total for the NFL Week 13 Thursday Night Football matchup after opening as a 2.5-point underdog at sportsbooks monitored by OddsShark.com.

The best spin one can put on trends for the game is that both teams are due to break some trends. Washington is just 2-7 straight-up in its last nine games against NFC East rival Dallas, but the Cowboys are a dreadful 1-8 against the spread in their last nine Thursday games. Dallas is also 1-8 SU in its last nine games where it got points at home.

The Redskins, who are 5-6 both SU and ATS, have to win out to have any chance of grabbing an NFC wild-card playoff berth. Cousins has averaged 9.2 yards per pass with six touchdowns and zero interceptions in two career starts in Dallas. The Cowboys seldom blitz with a five-man rush due to coverage issues, so if Washington gets LT Trent Williams (knee) back on Thursday, Cousins should have plenty of clean pockets as he looks for targets such as WR Jamison Crowder.

The Cowboys are allowing the fourth-highest opposing quarterback rating in the NFL.

In the rushing phase, Samaje Perine has been promising as Washington’s feature back. The Redskins rushed for only 50 yards in their last game against Dallas, but the loss of OLB Sean Lee (hamstring) has compromised the Cowboys’ rush defense.

Washington is 2-2 ATS in its last four road games, with the losses coming against the NFC-leading Philadelphia Eagles and the Kansas City Chiefs, who got a backdoor cover with a defensive touchdown on the game’s final play.

The Cowboys, who are 5-6 both SU and 5-6 ATS, need to break out of a major offensive funk. Prescott, RB Alfred Morris and an offensive line that has had consistency issues – but does have LT Tryon Smith healthy – are facing a Washington defense that has allowed 100 or more rushing yards in six of their last eight games, so there’s a chance Dallas might be able to control the line of scrimmage.

In the passing phase, Prescott and WR Dez Bryant have been struggling to get on the same page, and Bryant has struggled in the past when he is covered by Redskins CB Josh Norman. The matchup could be more favorable for TE Jason Witten and WR Terrance Williams.

The total has gone over in nine of the Redskins’ last 12 games vs divisional opponents. But the total has gone under in Dallas’ last five homes games as the underdog, according to the OddsShark NFL Database, and has also gone under in six of the Cowboys’ last seven games at night.

For more info, picks and a breakdown of this week’s top sports betting news check out the new OddsShark podcast with Jon Campbell and Andrew Avery. Subscribe on iTunes, or check it out at OddsShark.libsyn.com.

Patriots settle as small favorites on Super Bowl odds 2019

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For all the narratives that can hang off the great Tom Brady and Super Bowl first-timer Jared Goff, two of the big moving parts in the matchup on Super Sunday involve the rushing phase.

The New England Patriots have settled as 2.5-point favorites on the Super Bowl odds 2019 against the Los Angeles Rams with a 56.5-point total at sportsbooks monitored by OddsShark.com in the Super Bowl 53 matchup slated for Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta on Sunday.

The Bill Belichick- and Brady-led Patriots are 6-2 against the spread in their last eight games as a favorite of 3.0 or fewer points, according to the OddsShark NFL Database, while the Rams are 4-3 straight-up and ATS in their last seven games as an underdog. Interestingly enough, underdogs are 13-4 ATS in the last 17 Super Bowl games.

As so often happens, the last two teams standings are in good health. The biggest exception for New England, whose run defense has been league-average much of the season, is that defensive tackle Malcom Brown (calf) was limited in practice. The Rams claim leading rusher Todd Gurley (left knee inflammation) is 100 per cent after he had only five touches during the NFC championship game two weeks ago.

Backing the Patriots, who are 13-5 SU and 11-7 ATS on the year, involves putting stock in Brady and cohorts’ abundant Super Bowl experience, along with the fact the offense has been at peak form, averaging 38.7 points and 465.7 yards per game over its last three outings.

The Patriots’ offensive line will arguably be the unofficial playoff MVP, collectively, if it contains the Rams’ front four anchored by Aaron Donald, the best defensive lineman in football. If Brady, the subject of many Super Bowl props for Sunday, isn’t disrupted and/or the opposing pass rush is sucking wind after a ball-control drive, the Patriots passing game is lethal.

The Rams, 15-3 SU and 9-7-2 ATS, are new to the tumult of the Super Bowl. However, head coach Sean McVay thrives at creating mismatches, and two of the Rams’ season-long strengths, running out one-back, one-tight end sets and using play-action passes, are not tactics that New England has defended particularly well.

Goff also led five game-winning drives during the season, emerging victorious in quarterback matchups against stars such as Drew Brees, Patrick Mahomes and Russell Wilson (twice).

The total has gone OVER in seven of the Patriots’ last eight games in the playoffs. New England’s last four closely contested playoff games have featured 68, 74, 44 and 62 points.

For more odds information, betting picks and a breakdown of this week’s top sports betting news check out the OddsShark podcast with Jon Campbell and Andrew Avery. Subscribe on iTunes or Spotify or listen to it at OddsShark.libsyn.com.

First commercial, Trump Tweets, Gatorade color among Super Bowl LIII props

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Fans watch the Super Bowl for the commercials as much as the game, which also lends itself to Super Bowl props.

For instance, Bud Light is the -105 favorite have a commercial appear first during the telecast at sportsbooks monitored by OddsShark.com. The brewer has a long track record of attention-getting ads, and making a first impression can whet the appetite for something later on in the evening.

Budweiser (+200) is a second favorite on that prop and there might be longshot value on Stella Artois (+550), whose ad will include Jeff Bridges and Sarah Jessica Parker reprising their respective roles from The Big Lebowski and Sex and the City. Michelob Ultra (+550) and Bon & Viv Spiked Seltzer (+550) are also on the board.

The total number of commercials is set at 96, with both the over and under priced at -120. In the car commercial prop, Hyundai (-250) is favored against Mercedes-Benz (+170), but it might be worth playing a hunch since the February 3 game is at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta.

Atlanta has also been hit by wintry weather this week, and it’s -140 on the Super Bowl 2019 prop bets on the stadium’s roof being closed against even money for open.

The previous two championship matchups each had over 60 points scored, and the New England Patriots and Los Angeles Rams are certainly capable of trading touchdowns. It is -140 that any scoring drive will consume less game time than however long it will take Gladys Knight to perform The Star-Spangled Banner.

As far as coach props, the over/under is 1.5 on broadcaster references to the relative youthfulness of 33-year-old Rams coach Sean McVay, with the over (-220) favored against the under (+155). Los Angeles is the underdog on the 2019 Super Bowl odds.

There is also a total set for the number of tweets from President Donald Trump’s Twitter account during the big game. Over 6.0 tweets is a -140 favorite with the under an even-money underdog. It is -650 on Trump not attending the game and +375 on him showing up. He did not attend Super Bowl LII in 2018.

A cross-sport bet is whether Houston Rockets star James Harden’s streak of 30-point games – 24 and counting – will end before Super Bowl LIII does, with -120 odds either way. Harden’s next two opponents, the Denver Nuggets and Utah Jazz, have each managed to keep him under 30 at least once this season.

As far as props that pay off postgame are concerned, there is the ever-popular bet on what color liquid the winning coach will be doused in after the game. Clear / water (+220) is a slim favorite over lime / green / yellow (+225), followed by orange (+400), blue (+400), red (+600) and purple (+1000). The Patriots, for what it might be worth, have poured a clear liquid on coach Bill Belichick following each of their four most recent Super Bowl wins.

For more odds information, betting picks and a breakdown of this week’s top sports betting news check out the OddsShark podcast with Jon Campbell and Andrew Avery. Subscribe on iTunes or Spotify or listen to it at OddsShark.libsyn.com.