Kirk Cousins has played well in Dallas, while the Cowboys and Dak Prescott haven’t performed well anywhere lately.
Washington, with quarterback Cousins at the controls, has improved to a one-point road favorite against the Dallas Cowboys with a 44-point total for the NFL Week 13 Thursday Night Football matchup after opening as a 2.5-point underdog at sportsbooks monitored by OddsShark.com.
The best spin one can put on trends for the game is that both teams are due to break some trends. Washington is just 2-7 straight-up in its last nine games against NFC East rival Dallas, but the Cowboys are a dreadful 1-8 against the spread in their last nine Thursday games. Dallas is also 1-8 SU in its last nine games where it got points at home.
The Redskins, who are 5-6 both SU and ATS, have to win out to have any chance of grabbing an NFC wild-card playoff berth. Cousins has averaged 9.2 yards per pass with six touchdowns and zero interceptions in two career starts in Dallas. The Cowboys seldom blitz with a five-man rush due to coverage issues, so if Washington gets LT Trent Williams (knee) back on Thursday, Cousins should have plenty of clean pockets as he looks for targets such as WR Jamison Crowder.
The Cowboys are allowing the fourth-highest opposing quarterback rating in the NFL.
In the rushing phase, Samaje Perine has been promising as Washington’s feature back. The Redskins rushed for only 50 yards in their last game against Dallas, but the loss of OLB Sean Lee (hamstring) has compromised the Cowboys’ rush defense.
Washington is 2-2 ATS in its last four road games, with the losses coming against the NFC-leading Philadelphia Eagles and the Kansas City Chiefs, who got a backdoor cover with a defensive touchdown on the game’s final play.
The Cowboys, who are 5-6 both SU and 5-6 ATS, need to break out of a major offensive funk. Prescott, RB Alfred Morris and an offensive line that has had consistency issues – but does have LT Tryon Smith healthy – are facing a Washington defense that has allowed 100 or more rushing yards in six of their last eight games, so there’s a chance Dallas might be able to control the line of scrimmage.
In the passing phase, Prescott and WR Dez Bryant have been struggling to get on the same page, and Bryant has struggled in the past when he is covered by Redskins CB Josh Norman. The matchup could be more favorable for TE Jason Witten and WR Terrance Williams.
The total has gone over in nine of the Redskins’ last 12 games vs divisional opponents. But the total has gone under in Dallas’ last five homes games as the underdog, according to the OddsShark NFL Database, and has also gone under in six of the Cowboys’ last seven games at night.
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