As the EPL comes out of the international break, it’s all about whether anything will happen to blunt Manchester City’s momentum.
The value with Manchester City on the EPL championship odds has completely evaporated, as they are a -700 favorite at sportsbooks monitored by OddsShark.com. Man City, after 11 of 38 rounds in the league campaign, is eight points clear of both Tottenham Hotspur (+1400) and Manchester United (+1600), who share second place, while Chelsea (+1800) is nine points adrift of the leaders.
Matchweek 12 begins with the North London derby, as Arsenal (+135) might be a shaky three-way moneyline play against aforementioned Tottenham Hotspur (+185, +255 draw). The Spurs’ Harry Kane has six goals in as many games against Arsenal, and Tottenham has posted a result in five of six games against the Gunners, so taking the draw might be the wisest play. Kane is a must-play in goal scorer props.
Leicester City (+750) has likely been too leaky defensively (16 goals in 11 matches) to take them for an upset against a Manchester City (-325, +450 draw) side that will have Sergio Aguero and winger Leroy Sané in uniform. The over on the 3.5 total pays a healthy -110, and Manchester City is always worth considering on the goals line at minus-1.5.
Last-place Crystal Palace (+135) cannot score at home (four goals in five fixtures) and Everton (+220, +215 draw) cannot score on the road (two in five), but neither keeps it tidy around its goal. Two of Palace’s last three matches have had fewer than 2.5 goals, which is what the total is for a match that seems likely to end 1-0 or 1-1.
West Bromwich Albion (+500), which has the second-highest moneyline of any home team this week, will likely pack the goal tight against surging Chelsea (-175, +285 draw). Chelsea, which is on a three-win streak, is capable of bidding its time and ekeing out a win in a game that stays under the 3.5 total.
Watford (+105) is offering good value as it tries to pull out of a three-game losing streak, and West Ham United (+260, +240 draw) will likely need time to get used to new manager David Moyes. Watford, with young Brazilian winger Richarlison featuring in the attack, should be able to pull out of its nosedive.
Brighton & Hove Albion (+135) is far healthier than Stoke City (+225, +210 draw) ahead of a Monday matchup. Brighton will have something resembling a first-choice lineup to tee up striker Glenn Murray (three-game goal streak). With Stoke laid low by the news goalkeeper Jack Butland (finger) is out for more than a month, Brighton could cover the 2.0 total by itself.