The line on the World Series has shifted to the Houston Astros, but do keep in mind that having home-field advantage for Games 6 and 7 tilts the chances of a Los Angeles Dodgers comeback.
Up 3-2 in the best-of-seven Fall Classic, the Astros are now the -275 favorite against the +225 underdog Dodgers on the World Series prices at sportsbooks monitored by OddsShark.com.
There is a convincing argument to lay chalk with Houston and its name is Justin Verlander, the Astros’ starter for Game 6 on Tuesday. Historical trends, though, would suggest backing the Dodgers to make the comeback, especially at better than 2-to-1 odds.
In MLB history going back to 1985, 14 of the 28 teams, or exactly half, who have trailed any best-of-seven series 3-2 with the final two games at home have come back to win. The result in Game 5 has had little effect on outcomes, as eight of the 17 who lost Game 5 on the road – like the Dodgers did on Sunday – have come back to win.
Teams which have managed to tie the series in Game 6 at home are also 14-2 in Game 7s. In fact, none other than the Astros added to that tally with their comeback against the New York Yankees in the ALCS.
All time, 43 of 65 teams which had a 3-2 lead in a best-of-seven series have gone on to win. Twenty-five clinched in Game 6, the other 40 who were forced to a winner-take-all contest are only 18-22 all-time in Game 7s.
While this series has been all about expecting the unexpected, that would suggest that if Houston is to win, it will happen on Tuesday. The Dodgers are a slight -112 favorite with the Astros coming back at -108, while the total is at 8.0 runs.
While Houston is turning to Verlander, the Dodgers will counter with left-hander Rich Hill. Both will go on five days’ rest.
Verlander has been close to untouchable with a 1.53 earned-run average in the regular season and postseason since joining Houston in late August. Verlander’s teams are 5-0 in his last five away starts, and the total has gone under in seven of his 10 most recent road starts with the Astros and Detroit Tigers.
Hill, for his part, has a 2.77 ERA this season at Dodger Stadium and has held batters to a .179 average. However, the total has gone over in three of his last four starts at Dodger Stadium.
Both bullpens were overworked in Game 5. Kenley Jensen was the only Dodgers reliever who threw more than 30 pitches. Three different Astros relievers threw at least 29. Houston closer Ken Giles has also had a wretched postseason and might not be trustworthy enough to use in a one-run or tied game.