Patriots favored against Falcons in Super Bowl rematch

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It’s rare that the New England Patriots and Tom Brady are laying so few points at home, but then again, it’s been even longer since the Pats were dead last in the NFL in defense.

In a rematch of last season’s Super Bowl, if not necessarily a preview of this season’s, the Patriots are three-point favorites for Sunday night against the Atlanta Falcons with a 56.5-point total at sportsbooks monitored by OddsShark.com.

There have been only four games dating to 2009 when the Patriots were favored by 3.0 or fewer points in a regular-season home game, and they are 4-0 straight-up and 3-0-1 against the spread in that small sample. Counting Super Bowl LI, the Falcons are 0-5 SU and ATS in their last five games against the Patriots according to the OddsShark NFL Database.

The Patriots are 14-3 SU in their last 17 night games, but only 2-2 in the last four.

The Falcons, who are 3-2 SU and 2-3 ATS, are still a top-5 offense with QB Matt Ryan at the controls but have not shown the same dynamism they did while winning the NFC in 2016. New England has been dismal in coverage, ranking last in the NFL in yards per game (440.7) and yards per pass (8.6) allowed. Two of its top three cornerbacks, Stephen Gilmore (concussion) and Eric Rowe (groin), are iffy to play.

The Patriots might be stretched too thin to cover three-wideout looks with WRs Julio Jones, Mohamed Sanu and Taylor Gabriel; after all, this is a unit that was last seen allowing 354 yards to the New York Jets’ Josh McCown.

One reason why Atlanta is 9-2 SU and ATS in its last 11 road games is due to the stability of the 1-2 punch of RB Devonta Freeman and RB Tevin Coleman. One way to beat the Patriots is to outscore them, and Atlanta would seem to be capable of such if it curbs its turnover problems.

The Patriots, who are 4-2 SU and 2-4 ATS, are No. 1 in the NFL in total offense and passing yards thanks to Brady, TE Rob Gronkowski, WR Brandin Cooks and slot WRs Danny Amendola and Chris Hogan. The Falcons defense is allowing just 6.1 yards per pass, but it has not been making many disruption plays (12 sacks and only three takeaways), which teams need a few of against the Patriots in order to get Brady out of rhythm.

New England is 5-0 SU and ATS in its last five games against Atlanta but, of course, that required an epic combination of collapse and comeback during the Super Bowl. In the present, the Patriots offense is a little pass-heavy, ranking 21st in the NFL in yards per rush while relying mostly on RB Mike Gillislee. That’s unlikely to strike much fear into the hearts of Atlanta.

The game has the highest total of the week, but the total has gone over in 19 of the Falcons’ last 24 games and has also gone over in all three of the Patriots’ home games this season. The total has gone over in the Patriots’ last five games at home against teams with winning records.

For more info, picks and a breakdown of this week’s top sports betting news check out the new OddsShark podcast with Jon Campbell and Andrew Avery. Subscribe on iTunes, or check it out at OddsShark.libsyn.com.

Sunday Night Football odds: Bears slim favorites hosting rival Vikings

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A first-place showdown in the NFC North is a study in contrast twice over, with a young Chicago Bears team trying to buck a long-term betting trend, while the more seasoned Minnesota Vikings try to maintain one.

The Bears, with the rookie head coach / second-year quarterback combo of Matt Nagy and Mitchell Trubisky, are 2.5-point favorites on the Sunday Night Football odds against the Vikings with a 44.5-point total at sportsbooks monitored by OddsShark.com.

The first-place Bears are 5-1-1 against the spread in their last seven home games against teams with winning records, but since 2012 they are 4-6 straight-up and 3-6-1 ATS as a home favorite of 3.0 or fewer points. For what it might be worth, over that same span the Vikings are 8-2 both SU and ATS in 10 games as a road underdog, according to the OddsShark NFL Database.

Minnesota is also on a 6-0-1 SU run over its last seven games against NFC North counterparts.

The Vikings, who are 5-3-1 SU and 4-3-2 ATS, are firmly in the middle of the NFL pack in offensive proficiency after betting big on quarterback Kirk Cousins in free agency. Minnesota has had turnover issues and the fourth-ranked Bears defense, built around outside linebacker Khalil Mack, thrives at takeaways and creating opportunities for points off of turnovers.

Minnesota expects to have both of its top two wide receivers, Stefon Diggs (ribs) and Adam Thielen, healthy, as they try to break down a Bears pass defense whose 6.8 yards per attempt is the third-best in the league.

While a bye in Week 10 might have given Minnesota extra time to work on their ground game with Dalvin Cook and Latavius Murray, they are only 2-6 ATS in their last eight post-bye week games. The Bears lead the league with 3.6 yards per rush allowed, which mean Cousins will likely face his share of obvious passing downs.

The Bears, who are 6-3 SU and ATS on the season, are on roll behind Trubisky, a quarterback in the modern mold who can create havoc for defenses with his arms and legs. Whether the Bears continue a trend of being 8-2 ATS in their last 10 home games against the Vikings, a team they play twice a season, will come down to whether Trubisky will keep his wits about him against a fifth-ranked Vikings defense whose 31 sacks are second in the NFL.

The Bears have the benefit of having a cadre of receivers – Allen Robinson, Taylor Gabriel and Anthony Miller out wide; Trey Burton at tight end; and Tarik Cohen coming out of the backfield – whose varying skillsets could force Minnesota into a guessing game.

Bettors will have to decide whether the fact the Vikings allow a full yard per pass, 7.8 yards, more than the Bears speaks more to scheme or health. Defensive stalwarts such as nose tackle Linval Joseph, defensive end Everson Griffen, cornerback Xavier Rhodes, linebacker Anthony Barr and safety Andrew Sendejo are all expected to be available after missing games. Despite those injuries, Minnesota played the run well, allowing 3.6 yards per rush, a close fourth in the league rankings.

The total has gone UNDER in eight of the Vikings’ last 10 games at night. The total has gone UNDER in seven of the Vikings’ last nine games against the Bears, with an average combined score of 38.33 points. The total has gone OVER in five of the Bears’ last six games, with an average combined score of 54.33 points.

For more odds information, betting picks and a breakdown of this week’s top sports betting news check out the OddsShark podcast with Jon Campbell and Andrew Avery. Subscribe on iTunes or Spotify or listen to it at OddsShark.libsyn.com.

NFL Week 11 odds: Rams, Seahawks, Bears all betting favorites

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The NFL’s top two teams have decidedly different trends in Monday night contests.

The Los Angeles Rams, led by quarterback Jared Goff, are 3.5-point betting favorites against the Kansas City Chiefs with a 63-point total on the NFL odds for Monday at sportsbooks monitored by OddsShark.com.

The Rams are 1-7 straight-up and 2-6 against the spread in their last eight games on a Monday, as well as 5-12 SU and 4-12-1 ATS in their last 17 games at night, although much of that was compiled before coach Sean McVay came on the scene. The Chiefs, led by MVP candidate Pat Mahomes, are 7-2 ATS in their last nine games on a Monday, as well as 7-2 SU and 8-1 ATS in their last nine games as an underdog.

Elsewhere this week, the Seattle Seahawks are 3-point favorites on the NFL Week 11 odds against the Green Bay Packers with a 48.5-point total in a Thursday matchup. The Packers are 0-6 SU and 1-5 ATS in their last six road games, with an average losing margin of 11.5 points. The Seahawks are 7-0-1 ATS in their last eight games on a Thursday.

The Houston Texans are 3-point road favorites against the Washington Redskins with a 42.5-point total. The Texans are 4-10 ATS in their last 14 games. The total has gone UNDER in 10 of the Texans’ last 14 games after a bye. The Redskins are 6-2 SU and ATS in their last eight home games.

The Atlanta Falcons are 3-point favorites against the Dallas Cowboys with a 48.5-point total. The Cowboys, who defeated the Philadelphia Eagles during Week 10, are 0-5 SU in their last five games after a win. The total has gone UNDER in eight of the Cowboys’ last nine road games, according to the OddsShark NFL Database, with an average combined score of 33.0. The Falcons are 4-10 ATS in their last 14 games in the early afternoon.

The Indianapolis Colts are 2-point favorites against the Tennessee Titans with a 48.5-point total. The Titans are 6-0 SU and ATS in their last six games against divisional opponents. The total has gone UNDER in 12 of the Colts’ last 17 home games, with an average combined score of 43.41.

The Pittsburgh Steelers are 5.5-point road favorites against the Jacksonville Jaguars with a 47-point total. The Steelers are 9-0-1 SU in their last 10 road games, with an average winning margin of 7.9 points. The total has gone UNDER in 11 of the Jaguars’ last 15 games in the early afternoon.

The New Orleans Saints are 8.5-point betting favorites against the Philadelphia Eagles with a 56-point total. The Eagles are 2-6 ATS in their last eight games. The Saints are 7-0 ATS in their last seven games. The total has gone OVER in 13 of the Saints’ last 17 games in the late afternoon.

And the Chicago Bears are 2.5-point favorites against the Minnesota Vikings with a 45-point total in the Sunday night matchup. The total has gone OVER in five of the Bears’ last six games, with an average combined score of 54.33. The Vikings are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 road games against the Bears.

For more odds information, betting picks and a breakdown of this week’s top sports betting news check out the OddsShark podcast with Jon Campbell and Andrew Avery. Subscribe on iTunes or Spotify or listen to it at OddsShark.libsyn.com.