Patriots, Chiefs take long streaks into NFL season opener

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An impressive streak against the spread will end when Tom Brady and the New England Patriots host the Kansas City Chiefs. The Patriots are listed as nine-point favorites against the Chiefs on the NFL Week 1 betting lines with a 48-point total for their Thursday Night Football matchup at sportsbooks monitored by OddsShark.com.

Defending Super Bowl champion New England is 11-0 straight-up in its last 11 conference games and is also 8-0 against the spread in its last eight games, according to the OddsShark NFL Database. However, Kansas City, which compiled the second-best record in the AFC last season, is 6-0 SU and ATS over its last six road games, suggesting they’re capable of earning the cover against a touchdown-plus line, if not winning outright.

Kansas City is 0-6 SU and 2-4 ATS in its last six road games against New England. Dating back to 2014, the Patriots are 10-4 ATS as a home favorite of 7.5 or more points.

The Chiefs were 12-5 and 9-8 ATS in 2016. Quarterback is Alex Smith is a game manager and few would try to argue otherwise, but will be surrounded by multiple weapons. If the Patriots focus on taking away the threat of TE Travis Kelce, that could create opening for long gains from both WR Tyreek Hill and rookie RB Kareem Hunt.

Kansas City is one of the best teams in the NFL at ball security, which could help with avoiding the early miscue that Brady and Co. turn into a lead that riles up the Gillette Stadium crowd.

The Patriots, who were 17-2 SU and 16-3 ATS overall last season, have surrounded Brady with a receiving corps built much more around speed, and also have TE Rob Gronkowski fully healthy. The main question is how much Brady, at this point, is on the same page with freshly arrived WR Brandin Cooks and Phillip Dorsett, who have joined Chris Hogan and Danny Amendola.

New England will have to be in sync, especially against a Chiefs defense that is very good at limiting opponents to field goals on red-zone opportunities.

Kansas City and OLB Justin Houston have managed to apply pressure to Brady in the past (most notably in a 41-14 victory during the 2014 season). Houston was not healthy when Kansas City got zero sacks during a playoff loss at New England two seasons ago.

Chiefs coach Andy Reid is 26-10 SU in his career in season openers or in games after bye weeks. That’s impressive, albeit not as much as Patriots coach Bill Belichick being 40-12 SU  in season openers or in games after bye weeks.

The total has gone over in five of the Chiefs’ last seven games on the road against the Patriots, and has also gone over in six of the Chiefs’ last eight September games.

For more info, picks and a breakdown of this week’s top sports betting news check out the new OddsShark podcast with Jon Campbell and Andrew Avery. Subscribe on iTunes, or check it out at OddsShark.libsyn.com.

Sunday Night Football odds favor Patriots hosting unbeaten Chiefs

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It’s rare for an unbeaten team to be an underdog this far into the NFL season, and the Kansas City Chiefs have thrived when they get points.

The New England Patriots, led by Tom Brady, are 3.5-point favorites on the Sunday Night Football odds against Kansas City with a 59.5-point total at sportsbooks monitored by OddsShark.com.

The line isn’t entirely based on mystique, as the OddsShark NFL Database shows that the Patriots are 10-0 straight-up and 9-1 against the spread in their last 10 home games with an average winning margin of 16.0 points, as well as 10-4 ATS in their last 14 games at night. However, the Chiefs and dynamic young quarterback Patrick Mahomes II also have some eye-popping trends, such as being 7-1 SU and ATS in their last eight games as an underdog.

The Chiefs, who have covered every week this season, are also 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games after consecutive ATS wins.

Kansas City, which is 5-0 SU and ATS on the year, has not been contained offensively for four quarters this season, with Mahomes showing one of the livest passing arms the NFL has seen since Aaron Rodgers came into the league. Mahomes and his blocking group will be facing a limited pass rush with the third-fewest sacks in the NFL, although New England is holding opponents to 6.6 yards per pass, third-best in the league.

Running back Kareem Hunt torched the Patriots during a Kansas City win in 2017, and the Patriots’ focus on tight end Travis Kelce could create favorable matchups for Tyreek Hill. The bottom line is that the Chiefs have the capability to win a shootout.

Only three quarterbacks under age 25 have defeated the Patriots at Gillette Stadium in the Bill Belichick era – the Baltimore Ravens’ Joe Flacco and the New York Jets’ Mark Sanchez in 2009 and 2010 playoff games, and Colin Kaepernick in 2012 when the San Francisco 49ers were an eventual Super Bowl runner-up.

New England, which is 3-2 SU and 3-2 ATS, typically rounds into form around this stage of this season, as evidenced by a record of 10-2 SU and 8-3-1 ATS in their last 12 home games in October. Brady’s offense is facing a Chiefs defense that is hollowed-out at a linebacker and safety with Justin Houston (hamstring) and Eric Berry (heel) both considered doubtful.

The Chiefs have allowed the most yards in the NFL and New England, based on its track record, should be closer to the sum of its parts in the passing phase with tight end Rob Gronkowski and wide receivers Julian Edelman and Josh Gordon playing their second game of the season together.

Kansas City’s defensive issues could affect the total, although perhaps not in the way one might expect. The Chiefs are yielding an NFL-worst 5.8 yards per rush and the Patriots may try to grind down the tempo with Brady’s short passing game and runs by rookie running back Sony Michel.

The total has gone OVER in 10 of the Chiefs’ last 14 games at night. The total has gone OVER in six of the Chiefs’ last eight road games as the underdog. The total has gone OVER in seven of the Patriots’ last 10 games at home against teams with winning records.

For more odds information, betting picks and a breakdown of this week’s top sports betting news check out the OddsShark podcast with Jon Campbell and Andrew Avery. Subscribe on iTunes or Spotify or listen to it at OddsShark.libsyn.com.

How to watch Chiefs vs. Patriots on Sunday Night Football

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The New England Patriots are set to host the undefeated Kansas City Chiefs in a heavyweight showdown on Sunday Night Football, which airs Sunday at 8:20 p.m. ET.

Tom Brady and the Patriots (3-2) come into this big matchup on a two-game winning streak after taking care of business against the Dolphins and Colts at home. More importantly, New England’s offense is starting to hit its stride after trading for wide receiver Josh Gordon and getting wide receiver Julan Edelman back from suspension. Those two weapons, combined with tight end Rob Gronkowski, running back James White, and the emergence of rookie running back Sony Michel give Brady plenty of options in the passing game. However, it remains to be seen if they can keep up with the high-scoring Chiefs.

More coverage of Sunday Night Football

Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs (5-0) have taken the NFL by storm. Mahomes began the season by throwing touchdowns at a record pace (13 through Week 3) and didn’t throw his first interception until he faced the vaunted Jaguars defense in Week 5. Similar to Brady, the second-year gunslinger has a plethora of weapons at his disposal, including running back Kareem Hunt and tight end Travis Kelce, in addition to wide receivers Tyreek Hill and Sammy Watkins. With so much offensive firepower on both sides of the field, this game could come down to whichever quarterback gets the ball last.

Pregame coverage of Chiefs-Patriots and a recap of Week 6 begins with Football Night in America at 7:00 p.m. ET on NBC.

How to watch Sunday Night Football:

What: Kansas City Chiefs vs. New England Patriots

When: Sunday, October 14, 2018

Football Night in America: 7:00 p.m. ET

SNF kickoff: 8:20 p.m ET

Where to watch: NBC, or right here