Manchester City favored for title, Kane for top scorer on EPL odds

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Manchester City enters the English Premier League season as the favorite to top the table at the end of next May.

With the EPL season kicking off Friday, Man City is listed at +185 on the odds win the Premier League championship at sportsbooks monitored by OddsShark.com. Defending champion Chelsea (+325) and Manchester United (+325) are the closest contenders, before a big drop-off to Tottenham Hotspur (+900).

Manchester City have made major roster upgrades and manager Pep Guardiola has had a full season to get a better read on his players’ capabilities. But what’s probably going to make or break the Sky Blues is the health of defender Vincent Kompany, who’s struggled to stay healthy for the last three seasons.

Chelsea remains a solid play, particularly after adding Alvaro Mota to their front line. Odds of greater than 3/1 on a defending champion are hard to pass up. The price on Manchester United, which was sixth last season, might stem from their popularity and the fact that manager Jose Mourinho delivered titles during his second season with each of the other four teams he’s guided (including twice with Chelsea).

Tottenham has been faded in the preseason prognostications, mostly on the assumption they will be thrown off due to using Wembley Stadium as a temporary home due to stadium construction. However, one of the league’s most explosive offenses will be moving to a bigger pitch, and they still have their airtight back line with Toby Alderweireld and Jan Vertonghen as centre-backs.

Tottenham’s Harry Kane (+275), the two-time reigning Golden Boot winner, is the chalk pick in top scorer futures. But it is possible the Spurs’ move will affect the volume the chances Kane gets in home games.

Man United’s Romelu Lukaku (+400) should have the supporting cast to have a big season. Man City’s Sergio Aguero (+550) and Gabriel Jesus (+800) could end up cancelling out each other. With Arsenal out of Champions League, Alexandre Lacazette (+1100) might have the extra energy to take a shot.

In first week matches of note, Arsenal (-210) faces Leicester (+550, draw +350) in the lone game on Friday. Arsenal has just one win in its last seven season openers, but it should be different this time since they had a confidence-builder in the Community Shield game against Chelsea last weekend.

Tottenham (-155) opens on the road against Newcastle United (+400, +290 for the tie). Newcastle added little during the transfer period and Tottenham should be capable of beating the 1.0-goal line, which pays +120.

Manchester City (-325) should have a full complement of talent when it takes on Brighton and Hove Albion (+900) on Saturday. City is -110 on the goal line.

Crystal Palace (-130) gets the privilege of welcoming Huddersfield Town (+380, +250 for the draw) to the top flight. This might be an instance where taking the newcomers Huddersfield to eke out a point pays out.

Man United opens at home against West Ham United on Sunday. The Reds are -110 on the goal line (1.5 goals) and will be looking to make a statement with a decisive victory.

Matchweek 14 Premier League odds: Arsenal-Tottenham toss-up

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It takes a lot to discount the home advantage Arsenal will take into a north London derby against Tottenham Hotspur, one of the Premier League’s top away teams.

Arsenal is a narrow +160 favorite on this week’s Premier League odds with Tottenham coming back at +170, while the draw is at +265 on the three-way moneyline and there is a 3.0-goals total for Sunday at sportsbooks monitored by OddsShark.com. Arsenal is undefeated in its last six home matches against Tottenham; the Spurs have won five away matches in a row.

Each team has sufficient offensive capability and motivation to attack to prevent a clean sheet on either side, which is a starting point for bettors who would like to focus on totals with the match result so close to call. Arsenal’s Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang (+333 first scorer, -110 anytime) and Tottenham’s Harry Kane (+375, +105) stand good chances of tallying. In both teams to score props, tie/yes (+300) offers more payout than the draw on the moneyline.

Leicester City (+125) and Watford (+255, draw +235) carry some strong UNDER trends, as Leicester’s last five matches in all competitions have gone UNDER 2.5 goals, while the same is true in eight of Watford’s last nine away games in the league. There is little separating the teams in capabilities or in the standings, so Watford rates a look on the double chance (-145).

Newcastle United (+145) takes on West Ham United (+210, draw +235) having won three games on the bounce. West Ham is having great difficulty winning many games, but it is a pesky road team whose last three away matches have all gone UNDER. West Ham on the double chance (-170) could be the percentage play, and Marko Arnautovic (+450 first scorer, +150 anytime) should get some scoring chances off of counter-attacks.

Relegation-threatened Southampton (+340) hosts Manchester United (-110, draw +265), whose last six away matches in all competition have all gone OVER 2.5 goals. There is value in a powerhouse that’s maddeningly inconsistent, as Yes/Over 2.5 (+125) and Man United win/yes (+275) offer value in the myriad both teams to score props.

Chelsea (-600) and Fulham (+1500, draw +700) have a 3.5-goals total in a Sunday matchup, but their last five games at Stamford Bridge have all gone UNDER 2.5 goals and Fulham has also failed to score in four of its last five away matches. Chelsea is even money for both a clean sheet and a shutout win.

And Liverpool (-260) is undefeated against city rival Everton (+750, draw +400) in their last 21 matchups in all competitions, but the visiting Toffees come into this Sunday matchup on a three-game shutout streak in the league. Liverpool and Sadio Mane (+150 anytime) should be able to break through eventually, but No/Under 2.5 (+200) might have the best value in both-teams-to-score props.

For more odds information, betting picks and a breakdown of this week’s top sports betting news check out the OddsShark podcast with Jon Campbell and Andrew Avery. Subscribe on iTunes or Spotify or listen to it at OddsShark.libsyn.com.

Matchweek 12 Premier League odds: Manchester Derby highlights weekend

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The disparate fortunes of the teams involved in this weekend’s Manchester derby might lead bettors to seek out ways to restore betting value to Manchester City.

Playing at the Etihad Stadium, Manchester City are the -250 moneyline favorite on this week’s Premier League odds with Manchester United coming back at +700, while the draw is at +400 with a 3.0-goals total for Sunday at sportsbooks monitored by OddsShark.com.

The away team has had a result in the last six games in this matchup (four wins and two 0-0 draws). The law of averages alone indicates it would be tough for that to continue, but there have also been OVER 2.5 goals scored in 21 of Man City’s last 24 home games, as well as OVER 2.5 goals scored in Man United’s last five Premier League games.

Taking Manchester City win/yes (+150) in both teams to score (BTTS) props is a higher-yield play, as they are an aggressive team at home and will work to set up Sergio Aguero (+275 first goal scorer, -145 anytime). Manchester City has also been leading at halftime in six of its last seven games. On the Man United front, Romelu Lukaku’s absence might make for a slow start, but at minus-1.5 (-125) on the goals line, the Red Devils might recoup some value.

Elsewhere, Cardiff City (+155) has not fared well over the years against Brighton & Hove Albion (+210, draw +215), which has drawn or won 11 of the last 12 matchups (all competitions). Since Brighton has won only one of its last 19 away matches in EPL play, its double chance odds (-185) could be a more secure play.

Leicester City (-200) visits Burnley (+650, draw +325) having shown, by winning its previous outing, that it is channeling grief over the tragic helicopter death of chairman Vichai Srivaddhanaprabha two weeks ago. There have been OVER 2.5 goals (-120 on the betting line) in five of Burnley’s last six games, so Leicester might be able to pounce.

Crystal Palace (+355) and Tottenham Hotspur (-120, draw +270) has been a low-scoring fixture. Crystal Palace has failed to score in their last four tries against Tottenham and the teams’ last five matchups have been under 2.5 goals (in all competitions). Taking No/Under 2.5 (+175) in both teams to score props covers the possibility of Tottenham grinding out another win.

Liverpool (-950) takes on Fulham (+2400, draw +1000) in a Sunday matchup that is a mismatch on paper, with a rare 4.0-goals total. Liverpool has kept clean sheets in seven of its last eight games against Fulham in all competitions, and Fulham is on a five-game losing streak. Smarting from a Champions League loss on Wednesday, Liverpool could take out its frustrations and go OVER (+110) on its own 3.5-goals total.

And Chelsea (-240) hosts Everton (+650, draw +400) on Sunday with the expectation of a fully fit squad, save for Cesc Fabregas (illness), after playing a Champions League match on Thursday. Both Chelsea’s last four games and five of Everton’s last six games have gone OVER 2.5 goals, so this matchup’s 3.0-goals total could be bested.

For more odds information, betting picks and a breakdown of this week’s top sports betting news check out the OddsShark podcast with Jon Campbell and Andrew Avery. Subscribe on iTunes or Spotify or listen to it at OddsShark.libsyn.com.