Valentina Shevchenko Favored Against Amanda Nunes in Five-Round UFC 2013 Matchup

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With a scheduled five-round bout this time around, Valentina Shevchenko is favored against woman’s bantamweight champion Amanda Nunes in the main event at UFC 213.

Shevchenko is a slight -125 betting favorite against -105 underdog Nunes at sportsbooks monitored by OddsShark.com in their title matchup at UFC 213, which takes place at T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas on Saturday. The match comes 16 months after their first matchup which Nunes won by unanimous decision in her only victory in the UFC that didn’t end early. That was a three-round fight.

The rematch is scheduled for five rounds, which would seem to work in favor of Shevchenko, who has the endurance to be methodical and play a long game while waiting for an opponent to over-commit to an attack. That might negate Nunes’ trademark aggressiveness.

By the same token, though, Nunes is rarely going to be priced at -105. Her backers can take heart in knowing she has made great strides with her technical game since that March 2016 showdown against Shevchenko.

Robert Whittaker (-135) is favored slightly against Yoel Romero (+105) on the UFC 213 betting lines as they vie for the interim strap in the middleweight division. Whittaker has by far the greater cardio of the two and his grappling is good enough to counter Romero, a former Olympic freestyle wrestler.

If Whittaker can survive the first two rounds – and he’s characterized the fight as a 25-minute war – he should be able to wear down Romero. If Romero is to win, it will likely be by using his ground-and-pound game to get an early submission.

By virtue of his win when they went head-to-head in 2011, Alistair Overeem (-130) is the favorite against No. 1 heavyweight contender Fabricio Werdum (even).

Overeem, at age 37, is a deadly striker who has become craftier about picking his spots over his long career. His losses over the years have usually come by knockout, which is something that the jiu-jitsu specialist Werdum hasn’t been able to achieve in recent years. Overeem’s powerful kicking might help him with keeping Werdum at bay.

Anthony Pettis (-240) is favored against Jim Miller (+190) in the former champion’s return to the lightweight class. Pettis should have more energy than he typically did when he was cutting mass as a featherweight, which could aid him with using his kicks to create an opening for a submission.

Miller is a grinder, though, and is certainly capable of trading strikes and getting the match to the mat. On the whole, one should not overlook that this is a fight Pettis wanted to re-establish himself.

And the only true mismatch on the UFC 213 odds on the main card is the heavyweight bout between emerging force Curtis Blaydes (-750) and Daniel Omielanczuk (+475). The price on the latter fighter is tempting if taken in a vacuum, but when it comes to the Octagon, Blaydes has a reach advantage in the striking phase and is also a one-time U.S. national junior college champion, whereas grappling is Omielanczuk’s weakness.

Miocic favored against Cormier to highlight UFC 226 betting lines

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Stipe Miocic takes a significant size and reach advantage into a legacy fight against Daniel Cormier – and perhaps has more face to lose. Miocic is the -210 favorite with Cormier coming back at +170 in the co-main event on the UFC 226 betting lines, according to sportsbooks monitored by OddsShark.com.

 

Miocic is on a streak of a record three heavyweight title defenses and Cormier, who is the light heavyweight title holder, will go into the Octagon at T-Mobil Arena in Paradise, Nevada on Saturday with a chance to become a two-weight world champion, a feat few other men have completed.

 

Holding a 7½-inch reach advantage over Cormier, Miocic may offer a combination of power, speed and boxing ability that Cormier hasn’t seen before. Cormier might rate better in the grappling department, which is a reason why it wouldn’t come as a shock if he pulled the upset, but Miocic’s edge in the stand-up game is certainly greater.

 

Miocic is also 35, still the typical peak period for a heavyweight, whereas Cormier, at age 39, might be at the point of his career where durability is becoming a factor, especially in a bout with a strong likelihood of going the full five rounds. At the end of the day, the figurative scales seem tipped in Miocic’s favor.

 

In the co-main event, Francis Ngannou (-370) is a hefty favorite against Derrick Lewis (+280) on the UFC 226 odds in a heavyweight matchup. Both are counter-punchers by nature, so it’s possible a feeling-out process takes the fight past Round 1, where Ngannou ended his last four victories. If the two keep the fight standing, then Ngannou should come out ahead against Lewis, whose last three losses have come by knockout or technical knockout.

 

Paul Felder (-155) took a fight on this card late, but is favored against Mike Perry (+125) in a  welterweight matchup. The 33-year-old Felder has scored three consecutive knockout victories whereas the 26-year-old Perry has lost his last two bouts, so it’s reasonable to think the elder fighter will be able to figure out an opponent who seems to have plateaued in his maturation process.

 

Michael Chiesa (-160) holds an edge in grappling technique over Anthony Pettis (+130) in a catchweight (157.5 pounds) matchup. Chiesa missed the cutoff weight for lightweight for this bout. Fighters who miss weight are 7-2 in the UFC in 2018. Chiesa’s route to victory involves getting the match to the ground or on the fence and grinding out a victory, making it worth considering taking him to win by decision, which was also the verdict in three of Pettis’s five defeats during his seven most recent fights.

 

And Gokhan Saki (-145), a converted kickboxer, has a striker-vs.-striker matchup against Khalil Rountree Jr. (+115) in a light heavyweight bout. Saki is an unknown as a grappler, but what is known about Rountree is that he has never landed a takedown in the UFC, so there is a strong likelihood of a high-volume striking matchup that Saki could end by knockout or technical knockout.

 

For more odds information, betting picks and a breakdown of this week’s top sports betting news check out the OddsShark podcast with Jon Campbell and Andrew Avery. Subscribe on iTunes or listen to it at OddsShark.libsyn.com.

Whittaker Faces Romero as Betting Favorite on UFC 225 Odds

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Robert Whittaker was not 100 percent physically when he defeated Yoel Romero in their first fight 11 months ago, which is something to keep in mind when sizing up the rematch on Saturday.

With the UFC middleweight championship at stake, Whittaker is a -220 favorite on the UFC 225 odds with Romero coming back at +190 in the headlining fight on the main card, according to sportsbooks monitored by OddsShark.com.

The card, which is one of the most stacked the promotion has had in some time if all goes off according to plan (that is, everyone makes weight) takes place at United Center in Chicago.

Whittaker, despite being encumbered by a leg injury, won by unanimous decision when the two squared off in the Octagon at UFC 213 in July 2017. The Australian fighter has not fought since then. At his peak, Whittaker is a well-rounded fighter, combining high-volume striking – especially to opponents’ heads – with a strong takedown defense.

The main question with the 41-year-old Romero is his cardio, especially since the UFC’s recently adopted changes to weigh-ins have created extra challenges for older fighters to make weight. In their first fight he attempted half as many strikes as Whittaker but landed them at a higher rate. However, in a close fight, volume has a favorable effect on the judges’ scorecards.

Whittaker has landed at least one knockdown in six of his 12 career UFC fights, while Romero has had at least one in six of his 11 starts in UFC and Strikeforce. That suggests there is potential for a stoppage.

In the co-main event, Colby Covington (-130) is a narrow, nominal favorite against Rafael dos Anjos (+110) as they vie for the interim welterweight title. Covington is a on five-fight win streak, but the past three were by unanimous decision as he bases his strategy around takedowns and grinding opponents.

However, if Dos Anjos can tap into his Muay Thai and Jiu-Jitsu background and keep Covington at bay with powerful kicks, he will stand a great chance at winning and giving backers a payoff. There’s a strong likelihood the matchup goes the duration.

Holly Holm (-210) is favored against UFC debutante Megan Anderson (+180) in what amounts to a women’s featherweight title eliminator. Holm, the former bantamweight champion, is 0-2 as a featherweight. The powerful but inexperienced-with-grappling Anderson, at 6-foot tall to Holm’s 5-foot-8, will come in with a significant reach advantage and that might help her with wearing down Holm.

The generation gap is hard to ignore in the heavyweight matchup between Tai Tuivasa (-250) and Andrei Arlovski (+210). Tuivasa, age 25, has won all seven of his pro fights by knockout or TKO, but the 39-year-old Arlovski will be his toughest opponent yet. Tuivasa believers should probably expect another quick knockout, while skeptics might look at a safe play on Arlovski dragging out the fight and testing the younger artist’s staying power.

In the opener on the main card, welterweight Mike Jackson (-200) is favored against CM Punk (+170) in a matchup that is as blank a slate as it gets, due to each man’s inexperience in UFC. CM Punk comes in with a deeper grappling background than Jackson and that could set him up for the upset in a fight that is highly likely to have an early stoppage.

For more odds information, betting picks and a breakdown of this week’s top sports betting news check out the OddsShark podcast with Jon Campbell and Andrew Avery. Subscribe on iTunes or listen to it at OddsShark.libsyn.com.