Chestnut Big Favorite Against Stonie In Nathan’s Famous Hot Dog Eating Contest

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It is less a question of how but how many with Joey (Jaws) Chestnut and the Nathan’s Famous Hot Dog Eating Contest, which Major League Eating’s top-ranked carnivore has won nine of the last 10 years.

The traditional July 4 contest takes place in Coney Island, New York, on Tuesday, with Chestnut listed at -350 against Matt Stonie (+225) at sportsbooks monitored by OddsShark.com. Stonie is the only person to beat Chestnut over the last 10 years. In an undercard prop, up-and-coming Carmen Cincotti (-200) is favored head-to-head against Geoffrey Esper (+150).

With Chestnut coming up short on price, there might be more value in the various over/under totals. Chestnut owns the record of 73.5 hot dogs eaten in 10 minutes (set in a 2016 qualifier.  The over on whether the men’s champion will eat 71.5 is a fairly plump, juicy +225. The most even total is 67.5, with the over at -150 and the under at +110.

At the other end of the totals spectrum, the men’s champion eating fewer than 63.5 hot dogs pays +275. In both 2014 and 2015, the winner was below that benchmark.

Cincotti’s personal best on the Major League Eating circuit is 42 hot dogs. Esper has eaten as many at 30.5 in an MLE competition.

On the women’s side, three-time defending champion Miki Sudo is listed at -400 against +250 underdog Sonya Thomas. Sudo won last year with 38.5 and has set her sights on Thomas’ all-time record of 45, set in 2012.

Reaching that would also put bettors over on the over/under of 39.5 dogs, which hasn’t been surpassed since Thomas’ aforementioned 2012 performance. The under pays -160, with the over at +120. Thomas has told the media that her best days are behind her, so if anyone’s going over it’s likely Sudo.

There are also some fun props, including +750 on an eat-off being required (it’s happened just once since the 10-minute time limit was introduced) and a special on whether a contestant will be interrupted by a protester from PETA. Yes pays +500, to No’s -900.

Joey Chestnut downs a record 74 franks for 11th title

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Defending champion Joey “Jaws” Chestnut chomped down a record 74 franks and buns to take home his 11th title at the annual Nathan’s Famous July Fourth hot dog eating contest.

The renowned competitive eater from San Jose, California, takes home the coveted Mustard Belt and surpassed the previous mark of 72 dogs and buns he downed last year.

The heat wasn’t a factor; the National Weather Service put the temperature at 83 degrees with a heat index of 91 degrees.

Miki Sudo said after eating 37 dogs and buns that the heat may have slowed her down in winning the women’s competition.

That didn’t stop the Las Vegas eater from easily beating out second-place finisher Mischelle Lesco of Tuscon, Arizona, who chowed down 28 wieners and buns.

Joey Chestnut heavy betting favorite on 2018 Hot Dog contest odds

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It boils down not to “if,” but “how many?” when it comes to Joey Chestnut and the Nathan’s Hot Dog Eating Contest.

Chestnut, who’s won in 10 of the last 11 years, is an overwhelming -550 favorite against the field to prevail again in the July 4 competitive eating contest that takes place in Coney Island, New York, according to sportsbooks monitored by OddsShark.com.

The rest of the field is listed at +325 to pull off the upset (stomach), but it seems telling that Matt Stonie, the only competitive eater who has out-gorged Chestnut in the last decade, has had a two-year decline in the total of hot dogs and buns consumed since his triumph in 2015.

The reality that Chestnut might be competing against himself could be a tip on how to handle over/under on his 72.5 total. Chestnut has improved his record in three of his last four wins and has consumed at least 68 hot dogs and buns five times, so getting the over – which pays +160, to the -210 for the under – would seem projectable.

Carmen Cincotti, who will mark his 25th birthday on the day of the contest, has emerged as an up-and-coming challenger. The total on Cincotti’s consumption is 59.5, with the over still holding decent value at -190, to +145 for the under.

The alternate lines for the winner’s total – 68.5 and 66.5 – are very low-risk, but also very low-yield plays.

Four-time women’s champion Miki Sudo is also a -550 favorite on the 2018 hot dog contest odds to win her division, with the field priced at +400. Sudo crushed a record 41 hot dogs and buns in 2017, while runner-up Michelle Lesco finished with 32.5.

The over/under on the total for the women’s winner is a toss-up at 41.5, paying -120 either way, and Sudo is likely the only one in the field with a legitimate shot at it. Sudo has finished at least 38 hot dogs and buns in three consecutive years.

In head-to-head props, Sudo is also offering -500 against +300 challenger Sonya Thomas, who won back in 2014. Thomas finished with 30 hot dogs in 2017.

For more odds information, betting picks and a breakdown of this week’s top sports betting news check out the OddsShark podcast with Jon Campbell and Andrew Avery. Subscribe on iTunes or listen to it at OddsShark.libsyn.com.