Spurs, Bucks betting favorites for NBA Game 6 matchups on Thursday

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If it’s true that depth wins out the longer a playoff series lasts, then the San Antonio Spurs are due to break the home-team trend in their matchup with the Memphis Grizzlies.

With a chance to clinch in Game 6 on Thursday, the Spurs are listed as four-point betting favorites with a 190-point total against the host Grizzlies at sportsbooks monitored by OddsShark.com.

However, star guard Mike Conley and the Grizzlies are 4-0 straight-up and 4-0 against the spread in their four home games against the Spurs this season, including two during this series. Moreover, the home team has won all nine games between the Western Conference teams.

San Antonio, which is 5-5 SU and 3-7 ATS in its last 10 playoff games when it was favored on the road, can trust that standout forward Kawhi Leonard will be a handful for Memphis defenders. Despite all the attention paid to him, Leonard still shot a respectable 48 per cent during the two games this series in Memphis.

The Spurs can also count on having one of the most diverse offenses and deepest benches in the NBA, with the likes of SG Patty Mills providing scoring when it’s needed.

Memphis, which is 10-6 SU and 10-6 ATS as a home underdog this season, will try to re-ignite its transition game and re-establish Zach Randolph as a post scorer after he was a non-factor in their Game 5 road defeat. The Grizzles were the NBA’s seventh-best defensive team, but have had trouble keeping San Antonio from generating three-point looks, allowing the Spurs to shoot 42 per cent from downtown.

The total has gone over in eight of the Spurs’ last 10 road games in April, according to the OddsShark NBA Database. The total has gone over in the Grizzles’ last seven home games where they were the underdog.

Also on Thursday, Giannis Antetokounmpo and the Milwaukee Bucks, who also host a must-win Game 6, are listed as 1.5-point favorites against the Toronto Raptors with a 195-point total.

Milwaukee, which is just 2-7 in its last nine home games against Toronto, must develop a scoring threat other than the ‘Greek Freak,’ but SG Khris Middleton (illness) has been ineffective (7-of-21 shooting) in the past two games.

Toronto has trailed twice in the series, but increased physical play and the switch to a three-guard lineup with Norman Powell replacing C Jonas Valanciunas has helped them turn the series around. The Raptors, who are 6-2-1 ATS in their last nine road games, expect to have a healthy Kyle Lowry running their offense. Lowry soldiered through Game 5 with back stiffness.

The total has gone under in 11 of the Raptors’ last 15 games against the Bucks, including the teams’ last five games in Milwaukee.

Warriors, Rockets Road Betting Favorites on Friday NBA Odds

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Stephen Curry returning to the Golden State Warriors lineup means they will likely get most of the casual betting action, but their track record with tight lines on the road isn’t overly encouraging.

Up 2-0 in the series, the Warriors are 4.5-point road favorites on the NBA betting lines at sportsbooks monitored by OddsShark.com against the New Orleans Pelicans for Friday night, with a 232.5-point total.

While the Warriors are 18-2 straight-up and 9-11 against the spread in their last 20 games against the Pelicans, the OddsShark NBA Database shows they are just 8-8 SU and 7-9 ATS in their last 16 games on the road in the playoffs when they were favored by five or fewer points.

Defending NBA champion Golden State is also 4-13 ATS in its last 17 games following a straight-up win. The Pelicans, who are led by star forward Anthony Davis and also boast a steady veteran with point guard Rajon Rondo, are riding an impressive run where they are 10-1 ATS over their last 11 games.

The first two games of the series had an extreme disparity in free throw attempts, with the Warriors taking 59 foul shots to the Pelicans’ 20. An anticipation of the calls evening out is one reason for the high total, but it’s reachable, as 10 of the last 12 games in this matchup has finished over.

The total has gone over in 21 of New Orleans’ last 30 home games, including their four most recent.

The Houston Rockets are 3.5-point road favorites against the Utah Jazz on Friday with a 209-point total in Game 3 of a series that is tied 1-1. While Houston finished first overall in the NBA regular season, star guard James Harden and company are just 1-5 ATS in their last six road games.

In contrast, the Jazz, led by rookie guard Donovan Mitchell, are 6-2 SU and ATS this season when they are an underdog at home by 4.5 or fewer points.

The Rockets are also 5-3 SU and 2-5-1 ATS in their last eight road games within the Western Conference. Beating the Jazz on their home floor is doable but won’t come easily, meaning there’s a good possibility of a grinding, one- or two-possession game.

The total has gone under in five of Houston’s last six games after a loss against the spread. The total has gone under in six of Utah’s last eight home games when it was an underdog of 4.5 or fewer points.

For more odds information, betting picks and a breakdown of this week’s top sports betting news check out the OddsShark podcast with Jon Campbell and Andrew Avery. Subscribe on iTunes or listen to it at OddsShark.libsyn.com.

Sixers, Warriors Road Betting Favorites in Thursday NBA Action

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The Philadelphia 76ers may be facing a regression with the three-ball right as they go into a building where they have not won in a while.

The 76ers are 1.5-point road betting favorites against the Miami Heat with a 216.5-point total at sportsbooks monitored by OddsShark.com in one of the three NBA playoff matchups slated for Thursday.

While the Heat’s series-tying win in the previous game left the 76ers a mere 17-1 straight-up in their 18 most recent games, a more apt sample might come from looking at the teams’ records against playoff-worthy competition.

Philadelphia, whose perimeter shooters including Robert Covington and J.J. Redick combined to go 7-for-36 on three-point shots in Game 2, is just 2-7 SU and against the spread in its last nine road games against Eastern Conference playoff teams. The Heat are 7-0 SU and ATS in their last seven games against Eastern playoff teams.

The OddsShark NBA Database points out that the total has gone over in seven of Philadelphia’s last 10 road games when it was the betting favorite. However, the total has gone under in four of the Heat’s last six home games against the 76ers.

After taking two wins on the road, the New Orleans Pelicans are three-point favorites against the Portland Trail Blazers on the NBA odds with a 216-point total. The Pelicans, who are 8-2 SU and 7-3 ATS in their last 10 home games as a favorite of 3.5 or fewer points, have won the backcourt battle so far in the series thanks to Jrue Holiday and Rajon Rondo.

The total has gone over in six of the Pelicans’ last eight home games against Northwest Division teams. The Trail Blazers have actually taken more shots in the series, so if their luck evens out, there’s a chance for a scorefest.

And the Golden State Warriors, who also have a 2-0 series lead, are three-point road favorites against the San Antonio Spurs with a 206-point total. It’s the first time in 18 years that the Spurs are a home underdog in April (the last time was not a playoff game), but they are much more effective team at home, where they are 9-0 SU and 7-2 ATS in their last nine matchups.

The Warriors are without the injured Stephen Curry, but still have forward Kevin Durant and guard Klay Thompson to help them turn around being 3-7 SU and ATS in their last 10 road games as a favorite of 3.5 or fewer points.

The total has gone over in six of Golden State’s last nine road games during the playoffs in April. However, the total has gone under in six of San Antonio’s last nine home games against Western Conference teams.

For more odds information, betting picks and a breakdown of this week’s top sports betting news check out the OddsShark podcast with Jon Campbell and Andrew Avery. Subscribe on iTunes or listen to it at OddsShark.libsyn.com.