The way Tom Brady and the New England Patriots rallied to win the Super Bowl on Sunday burnished their aura of invincibility, but it’s bad for creating a good price in betting futures for next season.
The Patriots, who won their fifth title in the past 16 seasons on Sunday, opened as a +450 favorite on the Super Bowl LII futures boards at sportsbooks monitored by OddsShark.com. Brady will turn 40 years old before the season kicks off but Tom Terrific is betraying few signs of decline, having passed for a Super Bowl-record 466 yards while guiding New England to 31 unanswered points in their 34-28 overtime victory against the Atlanta Falcons.
Anyone believing New England might repeat – assuming a healthy Rob Gronkowski, too – might want to wait until the prices drop. Since New England went back-to-back in 2003 and 2004, only one defending champion – the 2014 Seattle Seahawks – has even made it back to the big game.
The top of the board is filled with a who’s-who of NFC contenders; that is, the teams who will never face a foray to Foxborough in January for a divisional round contest or the AFC Championship Game.
The Dallas Cowboys are listed at +1000 after finishing with a conference-best 13-3 record. The long-time playoff mainstays, the Green Bay Packers and Seattle Seahawks, each draw in at +1100. The Falcons, who will face a first-place schedule and some improved competition in the NFC South, are listed at +1250, suggesting oddsmakers believe there will be some Carolina Panthers-like regression.
Atlanta has already lost offensive coordinator Kyle Shanahan, who is the new head coach of the San Francisco 49ers.
The real value on the board might derive from the Kansas City Chiefs, Oakland Raiders and New York Giants, who are each listed at +1900. All three have their flaws. The Chiefs have been a consistent playoff team for two years, while the Raiders were in the hunt for a No. 2 seed before losing franchise QB Derek Carr and ending up with a wild card spot. The Giants still figure to return crafty QB Eli Manning and a much improved defense.
Super Bowl LII will be played at U.S. Bank Stadium in Minneapolis on February 4, 2018. No host team has ever won. The Minnesota Vikings are among the longshots at +2800.