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Seahawks, Packers headline betting favorites for Wild Card Weekend

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Neither Russell Wilson and the Seattle Seahawks nor Matthew Stafford and the Detroit Lions are on a hot streak, but home field and primetime could factor heavily into their matchup.

The Seahawks are listed as eight-point favorites against the Lions with a 42.5-point total in their NFC wild card game matchup at sportsbooks monitored by OddsShark.com. Seattle is 7-0 straight-up in their last seven home games against teams who hail from the Eastern time zone, and are also 20-4-2 against the spread in their last 26 primetime games.

The other similarity between Wilson and Stafford is the lack of a supportive rushing attack. The Lions’ pass-rush woes, apart from DE Ziggy Ansah and Kerry Hyder, might allow Wilson to get in a groove. The Seahawks’ pass defense has lost some of its identity since the season-ending injury to FS Earl Thomas, but Stafford will have to be pinpoint if he is to bring Detroit their first road playoff victory in 59 seasons.

The Green Bay Packers are 4.5-point favorites against the New York Giants with a 44.5-point total. The Giants, held together by FS Landon Collins, have perhaps the toughest pass defense of any team in the playoffs and could pose a riddle to red-hot Packers QB Aaron Rodgers. Green Bay’s injuries at cornerback might hamper their ability to slow down Eli Manning and WR Odell Beckham Jr., whose team is 4-0-1 ATS in their last five games against Green Bay.

In the AFC, the Houston Texans are favored by 3.5 points against the Oakland Raiders, who are down to a 0.4 % chance to win the Super Bowl at PredictionMachine.com, with a 36.5-point total on Saturday. The Texans contain short passes well and it might be too much to expect Raiders rookie QB Connor Cook to furnish a downfield threat.

While the Raiders’ defense is generous yardage-wise, they have an impressive 16 interceptions, which is coincidentally the same number that Texans QB Brock Osweiler has thrown.

The Pittsburgh Steelers are 10-point betting favorites against the Miami Dolphins with a 47-point total in the AFC betting matchup on Sunday. Traveling north with backup QB Matt Moore seems daunting for Miami, although Pittsburgh still has the the run-defense issues that led to Jay Ajayi scooting for 202 yards during a Dolphins win in October.

Miami is also 13-4 ATS in its last 17 games as a double-digit underdog. However, Miami can also be soft against the run and Pittsburgh, 5-1-1 ATS in their last seven games as a favorite, has RB Le’Veon Bell.

The favored team is 3-7-2 ATS in the last three years in wild card games. Twelve of the 16 wild card games over the last four seasons have gone under the posted total, with one push.

The New England Patriots and Kansas City Chiefs (the top two seeds in the AFC), as well as the Dallas Cowboys and Atlanta Falcons (the top two seeds in the NFC) have a bye week before hosting divisional-round games on January 14 and 15. The lowest surviving seeds head to New England and Dallas next week.

NFL Draft Betting Value Rests Beyond Browns’ No. 1 Overall Pick

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The only certainty on the morning of the 2018 NFL draft is that the Cleveland Browns, with the No. 1 and 4 overall picks, will take a quarterback – which has created a ripple effect on other betting props.

Southern California quarterback Sam Darnold is the -180 favorite to be the No. 1 overall choice in the 2018 NFL draft that takes begins in Arlington, Texas on Thursday, according to sportsbooks monitored by OddsShark.com.

The other players in the No. 1 pick prop include three other quarterbacks, Wyoming’s Josh Allen (+175), Oklahoma’s Baker Mayfield (+450) and UCLA’s Josh Rosen (+1800), plus Penn State running back Saquon Barkley (+600) and North Carolina State defensive end Bradley Chubb (+4500).

Quarterbacks have been taken No. 1 in 12 of the last 17 drafts and no running back has been the top pick since 1995. Darnold’s price might reflect an expectation that his skillset is most in tune with conventional NFL thinking. If a bettor believes the Browns will buck convention, well, Allen is believed to have better physical tools and there is the Hail Mary option of Mayfield, whose competitiveness and athleticism is offset by being short for a NFL quarterback.

The quarterback-at-No. 1 argument adds values to other props. Barkley (+175) has the lowest price but is still plus money as the No. 2 overall selection on the 2018 NFL draft betting props board. The New York Giants have that pick and general manager Dave Gettleman does not have a history of trading down at the draft. The Giants haven’t indicated a focus on a QB, which seemingly rules out Darnold (+275), Allen (+350) and Rosen (+400).

The New York Jets are a lock to take a quarterback, creating a very tight No. 3 overall prop between Rosen (+140) and Mayfield (+160). The play there depends on what type of risk bettors believe the Jets want to take on: with Mayfield, the only knock is his height (a smidge about 6-foot), while Rosen battled concussions in college.

Between the Browns also holding the No. 4 choice and the Denver Broncos possibly trading down from No. 5, the +225 price on whether one of the first five picks will be traded is a very enticing proposition. The Buffalo Bills are one of the quarterback-hungry teams with two first-round picks they could ante to move up in the draft order, while speculation also has the New England Patriots looking to move up, since Tom Brady presumably will not play forever.

Position props can also be great fun. The over/under on quarterbacks selected in the first round is 5.5. Only once – the famed John Elway-Jim Kelly-Dan Marino draft in 1983 – have six QBs gone in the first round. Tying that record would require both Louisville’s Lamar Jackson and Oklahoma State’s Mason Rudolph to go in the first round. The over/under on Jackson’s draft slot is 17.5

It is considered a thin year for elite wide receivers, so the -150 under on the 2.5 total seems like the percentage play. Teams have been wary of using first-rounders on running backs in recent years, but the total is only 1.5, making the -220 over a realistic hit since, after Barkley goes, only one team would have to take a chance on a back such as Louisiana State’s Derrius Guice or Georgia’s Sony Michel.

For more odds information, betting picks and a breakdown of this week’s top sports betting news check out the OddsShark podcast with Jon Campbell and Andrew Avery. Subscribe on iTunes or listen to it at OddsShark.libsyn.com.

 

 

Best ads from Super Bowl LII

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The best Super Bowl ads made us laugh, cry, and audibly wonder how much a trip to Australia would cost.

Here are some of the best ads from Super Bowl LII:

GOAT Ad: Doritos, Mountain Dew collaboration with Peter Dinklage and Morgan Freeman rapping Busta Rhymes and Missy Elliott

Peter Dinklage and Morgan Freeman in any Super Bowl commercial was going to be epic, but having them RAP (lip sync, obviously) Busta Rhymes and Missy Elliott?! That was what Super Bowl commercials are made for.

Leaving on a Jet Plane: Australia Tourism

It’s cold on the East Coast right now and Australia looks nice and warm, so this ad should move Australia to the next spot on your vacation list. The ad referenced a “remake” of ‘Crocodile Dundee’ with Chris Hemsworth and Danny McBride, the incredible Australian wine, and stunning beaches.

Laugh Out Loud: NFL’s Dirty Dancing tribute ad

Eli Manning and Odell Beckham Jr. had the time of their lives during Super Bowl LII, paying tribute to Dirty Dancing’s famous dance routine and acrobatic leap done by Jennifer Grey and Patrick Swayze.

You are, you’re a Superstar… commercial: Amazon

Amazon brought the star power to their Amazon Echo spot, with Gordon Ramsey, Cardi B, Leslie Jones, Rebel Wilson and Anthony Hopkins, filling in for a voiceless Amazon Alexa.

Get the tissues: Hyundai

Hyundai’s ad where car buyers meeting cancer patients that they helped by purchasing a car hit you right in the feels. It was obvious that every parent was on the edge of tears while watching the videos of patients saying thank you.

If you want to watch all of the Super Bowl ads, check them out here.