SNF: Packers field-goal favorite against Lions in NFC North showdown

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Matthew Stafford will have some, but not all of his key pieces back when his Detroit Lions try to stop the bleeding in a potential winner-takes-all matchup against the Green Bay Packers.

Aaron Rodgers and the Packers, who are the hottest team in the NFL, are three-point betting favorites against the host Lions with a 49.5-point total for Sunday Night Football, according to sportsbooks monitored by the OddsShark.com.

Detroit has lost three of its last four games to fall into jeopardy of missing the playoffs, but they are 6-0 straight-up and 5-1 against the spread over their last six home games at Ford Field. Green Bay is 18-4 SU in the teams’ last 22 meetings, but interestingly the streaking Packers are 1-6 ATS in their last seven road games after winning their two most recent road games.

Green Bay is 9-6 SU and 7-7-1 ATS, thanks to a five-game win streak where it has averaged 31 points per game. The Lions have a resilient, if far from stingy defense (15th in the NFL), so the Packers will have to be patient and not make mistakes. Rodgers’ best receiver, Jordy Nelson, will have a tougher matchup if CB Darius Slay (hamstring), who practiced this week, returns from one-game absence.

The Packers also have starting WR Randall Cobb (ankle) potentially hobbled. The Lions have only 25 sacks this season, and if the likes Ziggy Ansah and Kerry Hyder can’t get to Rodgers, Detroit’s pass coverage could get exposed.

The Packers, who have been on a roller coaster ride on the odds to win Super Bowl 51, are 3-1 ATS in their last four games against the Lions. Converted WR Ty Montgomery has given Green Bay a reasonable facsimile of a rushing attack.

Detroit is 9-6 SU and 8-7 ATS, on the margin of Stafford having engineered eight victories in games where his team trailed in the fourth quarter. The Packers, with OLB Clay Matthews and OLB Nick Perry, have a strong pass rush and Detroit will need C Travis Swanson – who is back from missing three games due to a brain injury – to shore up their pass protection.

Green Bay allows a NFL-worst 8.0 yards per pass, and provided time to make his reads Stafford should be able to consistently find WR Marvin Jones, WR Golden Tate and slot WR Anquan Boldin.

Running back Theo Riddick (wrist) has been ruled out, leaving Dwayne Washington to prop up Detroit’s 30th-ranked running game. If the Lions are to win, it will come down to their formula of keeping the game close and counting on Stafford to deliver at the decisive stage.

The total has gone OVER in three of the Packers’ last four games against the Lions heading into their Sunday Night Football matchup. The loser will back into a wild-card berth if the Washington Redskins lose against the New York Giants, but the Giants are locked into their playoff position and have the luxury of resting key players.

NFL Draft Betting Value Rests Beyond Browns’ No. 1 Overall Pick

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The only certainty on the morning of the 2018 NFL draft is that the Cleveland Browns, with the No. 1 and 4 overall picks, will take a quarterback – which has created a ripple effect on other betting props.

Southern California quarterback Sam Darnold is the -180 favorite to be the No. 1 overall choice in the 2018 NFL draft that takes begins in Arlington, Texas on Thursday, according to sportsbooks monitored by OddsShark.com.

The other players in the No. 1 pick prop include three other quarterbacks, Wyoming’s Josh Allen (+175), Oklahoma’s Baker Mayfield (+450) and UCLA’s Josh Rosen (+1800), plus Penn State running back Saquon Barkley (+600) and North Carolina State defensive end Bradley Chubb (+4500).

Quarterbacks have been taken No. 1 in 12 of the last 17 drafts and no running back has been the top pick since 1995. Darnold’s price might reflect an expectation that his skillset is most in tune with conventional NFL thinking. If a bettor believes the Browns will buck convention, well, Allen is believed to have better physical tools and there is the Hail Mary option of Mayfield, whose competitiveness and athleticism is offset by being short for a NFL quarterback.

The quarterback-at-No. 1 argument adds values to other props. Barkley (+175) has the lowest price but is still plus money as the No. 2 overall selection on the 2018 NFL draft betting props board. The New York Giants have that pick and general manager Dave Gettleman does not have a history of trading down at the draft. The Giants haven’t indicated a focus on a QB, which seemingly rules out Darnold (+275), Allen (+350) and Rosen (+400).

The New York Jets are a lock to take a quarterback, creating a very tight No. 3 overall prop between Rosen (+140) and Mayfield (+160). The play there depends on what type of risk bettors believe the Jets want to take on: with Mayfield, the only knock is his height (a smidge about 6-foot), while Rosen battled concussions in college.

Between the Browns also holding the No. 4 choice and the Denver Broncos possibly trading down from No. 5, the +225 price on whether one of the first five picks will be traded is a very enticing proposition. The Buffalo Bills are one of the quarterback-hungry teams with two first-round picks they could ante to move up in the draft order, while speculation also has the New England Patriots looking to move up, since Tom Brady presumably will not play forever.

Position props can also be great fun. The over/under on quarterbacks selected in the first round is 5.5. Only once – the famed John Elway-Jim Kelly-Dan Marino draft in 1983 – have six QBs gone in the first round. Tying that record would require both Louisville’s Lamar Jackson and Oklahoma State’s Mason Rudolph to go in the first round. The over/under on Jackson’s draft slot is 17.5

It is considered a thin year for elite wide receivers, so the -150 under on the 2.5 total seems like the percentage play. Teams have been wary of using first-rounders on running backs in recent years, but the total is only 1.5, making the -220 over a realistic hit since, after Barkley goes, only one team would have to take a chance on a back such as Louisiana State’s Derrius Guice or Georgia’s Sony Michel.

For more odds information, betting picks and a breakdown of this week’s top sports betting news check out the OddsShark podcast with Jon Campbell and Andrew Avery. Subscribe on iTunes or listen to it at OddsShark.libsyn.com.

 

 

Best ads from Super Bowl LII

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The best Super Bowl ads made us laugh, cry, and audibly wonder how much a trip to Australia would cost.

Here are some of the best ads from Super Bowl LII:

GOAT Ad: Doritos, Mountain Dew collaboration with Peter Dinklage and Morgan Freeman rapping Busta Rhymes and Missy Elliott

Peter Dinklage and Morgan Freeman in any Super Bowl commercial was going to be epic, but having them RAP (lip sync, obviously) Busta Rhymes and Missy Elliott?! That was what Super Bowl commercials are made for.

Leaving on a Jet Plane: Australia Tourism

It’s cold on the East Coast right now and Australia looks nice and warm, so this ad should move Australia to the next spot on your vacation list. The ad referenced a “remake” of ‘Crocodile Dundee’ with Chris Hemsworth and Danny McBride, the incredible Australian wine, and stunning beaches.

Laugh Out Loud: NFL’s Dirty Dancing tribute ad

Eli Manning and Odell Beckham Jr. had the time of their lives during Super Bowl LII, paying tribute to Dirty Dancing’s famous dance routine and acrobatic leap done by Jennifer Grey and Patrick Swayze.

You are, you’re a Superstar… commercial: Amazon

Amazon brought the star power to their Amazon Echo spot, with Gordon Ramsey, Cardi B, Leslie Jones, Rebel Wilson and Anthony Hopkins, filling in for a voiceless Amazon Alexa.

Get the tissues: Hyundai

Hyundai’s ad where car buyers meeting cancer patients that they helped by purchasing a car hit you right in the feels. It was obvious that every parent was on the edge of tears while watching the videos of patients saying thank you.

If you want to watch all of the Super Bowl ads, check them out here.