SNF: Packers field-goal favorite against Lions in NFC North showdown

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Matthew Stafford will have some, but not all of his key pieces back when his Detroit Lions try to stop the bleeding in a potential winner-takes-all matchup against the Green Bay Packers.

Aaron Rodgers and the Packers, who are the hottest team in the NFL, are three-point betting favorites against the host Lions with a 49.5-point total for Sunday Night Football, according to sportsbooks monitored by the OddsShark.com.

Detroit has lost three of its last four games to fall into jeopardy of missing the playoffs, but they are 6-0 straight-up and 5-1 against the spread over their last six home games at Ford Field. Green Bay is 18-4 SU in the teams’ last 22 meetings, but interestingly the streaking Packers are 1-6 ATS in their last seven road games after winning their two most recent road games.

Green Bay is 9-6 SU and 7-7-1 ATS, thanks to a five-game win streak where it has averaged 31 points per game. The Lions have a resilient, if far from stingy defense (15th in the NFL), so the Packers will have to be patient and not make mistakes. Rodgers’ best receiver, Jordy Nelson, will have a tougher matchup if CB Darius Slay (hamstring), who practiced this week, returns from one-game absence.

The Packers also have starting WR Randall Cobb (ankle) potentially hobbled. The Lions have only 25 sacks this season, and if the likes Ziggy Ansah and Kerry Hyder can’t get to Rodgers, Detroit’s pass coverage could get exposed.

The Packers, who have been on a roller coaster ride on the odds to win Super Bowl 51, are 3-1 ATS in their last four games against the Lions. Converted WR Ty Montgomery has given Green Bay a reasonable facsimile of a rushing attack.

Detroit is 9-6 SU and 8-7 ATS, on the margin of Stafford having engineered eight victories in games where his team trailed in the fourth quarter. The Packers, with OLB Clay Matthews and OLB Nick Perry, have a strong pass rush and Detroit will need C Travis Swanson – who is back from missing three games due to a brain injury – to shore up their pass protection.

Green Bay allows a NFL-worst 8.0 yards per pass, and provided time to make his reads Stafford should be able to consistently find WR Marvin Jones, WR Golden Tate and slot WR Anquan Boldin.

Running back Theo Riddick (wrist) has been ruled out, leaving Dwayne Washington to prop up Detroit’s 30th-ranked running game. If the Lions are to win, it will come down to their formula of keeping the game close and counting on Stafford to deliver at the decisive stage.

The total has gone OVER in three of the Packers’ last four games against the Lions heading into their Sunday Night Football matchup. The loser will back into a wild-card berth if the Washington Redskins lose against the New York Giants, but the Giants are locked into their playoff position and have the luxury of resting key players.

Sunday Night Football odds: Bears slim favorites hosting rival Vikings

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A first-place showdown in the NFC North is a study in contrast twice over, with a young Chicago Bears team trying to buck a long-term betting trend, while the more seasoned Minnesota Vikings try to maintain one.

The Bears, with the rookie head coach / second-year quarterback combo of Matt Nagy and Mitchell Trubisky, are 2.5-point favorites on the Sunday Night Football odds against the Vikings with a 44.5-point total at sportsbooks monitored by OddsShark.com.

The first-place Bears are 5-1-1 against the spread in their last seven home games against teams with winning records, but since 2012 they are 4-6 straight-up and 3-6-1 ATS as a home favorite of 3.0 or fewer points. For what it might be worth, over that same span the Vikings are 8-2 both SU and ATS in 10 games as a road underdog, according to the OddsShark NFL Database.

Minnesota is also on a 6-0-1 SU run over its last seven games against NFC North counterparts.

The Vikings, who are 5-3-1 SU and 4-3-2 ATS, are firmly in the middle of the NFL pack in offensive proficiency after betting big on quarterback Kirk Cousins in free agency. Minnesota has had turnover issues and the fourth-ranked Bears defense, built around outside linebacker Khalil Mack, thrives at takeaways and creating opportunities for points off of turnovers.

Minnesota expects to have both of its top two wide receivers, Stefon Diggs (ribs) and Adam Thielen, healthy, as they try to break down a Bears pass defense whose 6.8 yards per attempt is the third-best in the league.

While a bye in Week 10 might have given Minnesota extra time to work on their ground game with Dalvin Cook and Latavius Murray, they are only 2-6 ATS in their last eight post-bye week games. The Bears lead the league with 3.6 yards per rush allowed, which mean Cousins will likely face his share of obvious passing downs.

The Bears, who are 6-3 SU and ATS on the season, are on roll behind Trubisky, a quarterback in the modern mold who can create havoc for defenses with his arms and legs. Whether the Bears continue a trend of being 8-2 ATS in their last 10 home games against the Vikings, a team they play twice a season, will come down to whether Trubisky will keep his wits about him against a fifth-ranked Vikings defense whose 31 sacks are second in the NFL.

The Bears have the benefit of having a cadre of receivers – Allen Robinson, Taylor Gabriel and Anthony Miller out wide; Trey Burton at tight end; and Tarik Cohen coming out of the backfield – whose varying skillsets could force Minnesota into a guessing game.

Bettors will have to decide whether the fact the Vikings allow a full yard per pass, 7.8 yards, more than the Bears speaks more to scheme or health. Defensive stalwarts such as nose tackle Linval Joseph, defensive end Everson Griffen, cornerback Xavier Rhodes, linebacker Anthony Barr and safety Andrew Sendejo are all expected to be available after missing games. Despite those injuries, Minnesota played the run well, allowing 3.6 yards per rush, a close fourth in the league rankings.

The total has gone UNDER in eight of the Vikings’ last 10 games at night. The total has gone UNDER in seven of the Vikings’ last nine games against the Bears, with an average combined score of 38.33 points. The total has gone OVER in five of the Bears’ last six games, with an average combined score of 54.33 points.

For more odds information, betting picks and a breakdown of this week’s top sports betting news check out the OddsShark podcast with Jon Campbell and Andrew Avery. Subscribe on iTunes or Spotify or listen to it at OddsShark.libsyn.com.

NFL Week 11 odds: Rams, Seahawks, Bears all betting favorites

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The NFL’s top two teams have decidedly different trends in Monday night contests.

The Los Angeles Rams, led by quarterback Jared Goff, are 3.5-point betting favorites against the Kansas City Chiefs with a 63-point total on the NFL odds for Monday at sportsbooks monitored by OddsShark.com.

The Rams are 1-7 straight-up and 2-6 against the spread in their last eight games on a Monday, as well as 5-12 SU and 4-12-1 ATS in their last 17 games at night, although much of that was compiled before coach Sean McVay came on the scene. The Chiefs, led by MVP candidate Pat Mahomes, are 7-2 ATS in their last nine games on a Monday, as well as 7-2 SU and 8-1 ATS in their last nine games as an underdog.

Elsewhere this week, the Seattle Seahawks are 3-point favorites on the NFL Week 11 odds against the Green Bay Packers with a 48.5-point total in a Thursday matchup. The Packers are 0-6 SU and 1-5 ATS in their last six road games, with an average losing margin of 11.5 points. The Seahawks are 7-0-1 ATS in their last eight games on a Thursday.

The Houston Texans are 3-point road favorites against the Washington Redskins with a 42.5-point total. The Texans are 4-10 ATS in their last 14 games. The total has gone UNDER in 10 of the Texans’ last 14 games after a bye. The Redskins are 6-2 SU and ATS in their last eight home games.

The Atlanta Falcons are 3-point favorites against the Dallas Cowboys with a 48.5-point total. The Cowboys, who defeated the Philadelphia Eagles during Week 10, are 0-5 SU in their last five games after a win. The total has gone UNDER in eight of the Cowboys’ last nine road games, according to the OddsShark NFL Database, with an average combined score of 33.0. The Falcons are 4-10 ATS in their last 14 games in the early afternoon.

The Indianapolis Colts are 2-point favorites against the Tennessee Titans with a 48.5-point total. The Titans are 6-0 SU and ATS in their last six games against divisional opponents. The total has gone UNDER in 12 of the Colts’ last 17 home games, with an average combined score of 43.41.

The Pittsburgh Steelers are 5.5-point road favorites against the Jacksonville Jaguars with a 47-point total. The Steelers are 9-0-1 SU in their last 10 road games, with an average winning margin of 7.9 points. The total has gone UNDER in 11 of the Jaguars’ last 15 games in the early afternoon.

The New Orleans Saints are 8.5-point betting favorites against the Philadelphia Eagles with a 56-point total. The Eagles are 2-6 ATS in their last eight games. The Saints are 7-0 ATS in their last seven games. The total has gone OVER in 13 of the Saints’ last 17 games in the late afternoon.

And the Chicago Bears are 2.5-point favorites against the Minnesota Vikings with a 45-point total in the Sunday night matchup. The total has gone OVER in five of the Bears’ last six games, with an average combined score of 54.33. The Vikings are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 road games against the Bears.

For more odds information, betting picks and a breakdown of this week’s top sports betting news check out the OddsShark podcast with Jon Campbell and Andrew Avery. Subscribe on iTunes or Spotify or listen to it at OddsShark.libsyn.com.