NFL Week 15 Odds: Seahawks TNF Favorites, Broncos Underdogs vs. Patriots

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Russell Wilson and the Seattle Seahawks take a track record of bouncing back into their prime-time game against the Los Angeles Rams, who just axed coach Jeff Fisher. The Seahawks are listed as 15-point favorites against the Rams with a 38.5-point total, according to sportsbooks monitored by OddsShark.com.

In spite of a pitiful six-turnover effort against the Green Bay Packers in Week 14, the Seahawks face their largest line since their 2013 Super Bowl season. Seattle is 7-0 straight-up and 5-1-1 against the spread in their last seven games after a loss, but the Rams are 7-2 ATS in their last nine games against the Seahawks.

Wilson is coming off the worst game of his Seahawks career, but facing a weak Rams pass rush might be the tonic for him to recover. With a rookie QB, Jared Goff, and interim coach Jim Fassel on the sideline, one probably shouldn’t count on much output from Los Angeles’ offense.

The New England Patriots are favored by three points against the host Denver Broncos in an AFC Championship Game rematch. New England is 1-6 SU and 1-6 ATS in its last seven trips into Denver, but the Broncos’ inability to run the ball and stop the run could tilt the playing field toward Tom Brady, especially if RB LeGarrette Blount gets going.

The New York Giants are 4.5-point favorites against the Detroit Lions. Lions QB Matthew Stafford (dislocated middle finger) will be playing hurt in a late-season outdoor game and one wonders how long the Lions can sustain their knack for fourth-quarter rallies. That said, the inconsistency of the Eli Manning-led offense makes the Giants a shaky play at minus-4.5.

The Miami Dolphins are 2.5-point road favorites against the New York Jets in a Saturday matchup. While backup QB Matt Moore has a short week to get ready to replace Ryan Tannehill (knee), the Dolphins are also facing one of the NFL’s leakiest pass defenses. Jets rookie QB Bryce Petty will have to decode a solid Miami defense that has film on him after his  Week 14 start in San Francisco.

In a matchup of teams dearly clinging to playoff life, the Minnesota Vikings are favored by four points against the Indianapolis Colts. Neither the Colts’ Andrew Luck nor the Vikings’ Sam Bradford has been able to count on adequate pass protection. The game could come down to whether the Vikings shut down RB Frank Gore and make the Colts offense one-dimensional. Minnesota is 10-0 ATS in their last 10 interconference games.

And the Dallas Cowboys are seven-point favorites against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in the Sunday Night Football matchup. Cowboys rookie QB Dak Prescott has struggled against strong pass rushes in the past two games (against the Vikings and Giants) and the vastly improved Bucs defense, with 30 sacks, can get to the quarterback. Tampa Bay QB Jameis Winston will be seeking a bounce-back performance against a suspect Dallas pass defense.

NFL Draft Betting Value Rests Beyond Browns’ No. 1 Overall Pick

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The only certainty on the morning of the 2018 NFL draft is that the Cleveland Browns, with the No. 1 and 4 overall picks, will take a quarterback – which has created a ripple effect on other betting props.

Southern California quarterback Sam Darnold is the -180 favorite to be the No. 1 overall choice in the 2018 NFL draft that takes begins in Arlington, Texas on Thursday, according to sportsbooks monitored by OddsShark.com.

The other players in the No. 1 pick prop include three other quarterbacks, Wyoming’s Josh Allen (+175), Oklahoma’s Baker Mayfield (+450) and UCLA’s Josh Rosen (+1800), plus Penn State running back Saquon Barkley (+600) and North Carolina State defensive end Bradley Chubb (+4500).

Quarterbacks have been taken No. 1 in 12 of the last 17 drafts and no running back has been the top pick since 1995. Darnold’s price might reflect an expectation that his skillset is most in tune with conventional NFL thinking. If a bettor believes the Browns will buck convention, well, Allen is believed to have better physical tools and there is the Hail Mary option of Mayfield, whose competitiveness and athleticism is offset by being short for a NFL quarterback.

The quarterback-at-No. 1 argument adds values to other props. Barkley (+175) has the lowest price but is still plus money as the No. 2 overall selection on the 2018 NFL draft betting props board. The New York Giants have that pick and general manager Dave Gettleman does not have a history of trading down at the draft. The Giants haven’t indicated a focus on a QB, which seemingly rules out Darnold (+275), Allen (+350) and Rosen (+400).

The New York Jets are a lock to take a quarterback, creating a very tight No. 3 overall prop between Rosen (+140) and Mayfield (+160). The play there depends on what type of risk bettors believe the Jets want to take on: with Mayfield, the only knock is his height (a smidge about 6-foot), while Rosen battled concussions in college.

Between the Browns also holding the No. 4 choice and the Denver Broncos possibly trading down from No. 5, the +225 price on whether one of the first five picks will be traded is a very enticing proposition. The Buffalo Bills are one of the quarterback-hungry teams with two first-round picks they could ante to move up in the draft order, while speculation also has the New England Patriots looking to move up, since Tom Brady presumably will not play forever.

Position props can also be great fun. The over/under on quarterbacks selected in the first round is 5.5. Only once – the famed John Elway-Jim Kelly-Dan Marino draft in 1983 – have six QBs gone in the first round. Tying that record would require both Louisville’s Lamar Jackson and Oklahoma State’s Mason Rudolph to go in the first round. The over/under on Jackson’s draft slot is 17.5

It is considered a thin year for elite wide receivers, so the -150 under on the 2.5 total seems like the percentage play. Teams have been wary of using first-rounders on running backs in recent years, but the total is only 1.5, making the -220 over a realistic hit since, after Barkley goes, only one team would have to take a chance on a back such as Louisiana State’s Derrius Guice or Georgia’s Sony Michel.

For more odds information, betting picks and a breakdown of this week’s top sports betting news check out the OddsShark podcast with Jon Campbell and Andrew Avery. Subscribe on iTunes or listen to it at OddsShark.libsyn.com.

 

 

Best ads from Super Bowl LII

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The best Super Bowl ads made us laugh, cry, and audibly wonder how much a trip to Australia would cost.

Here are some of the best ads from Super Bowl LII:

GOAT Ad: Doritos, Mountain Dew collaboration with Peter Dinklage and Morgan Freeman rapping Busta Rhymes and Missy Elliott

Peter Dinklage and Morgan Freeman in any Super Bowl commercial was going to be epic, but having them RAP (lip sync, obviously) Busta Rhymes and Missy Elliott?! That was what Super Bowl commercials are made for.

Leaving on a Jet Plane: Australia Tourism

It’s cold on the East Coast right now and Australia looks nice and warm, so this ad should move Australia to the next spot on your vacation list. The ad referenced a “remake” of ‘Crocodile Dundee’ with Chris Hemsworth and Danny McBride, the incredible Australian wine, and stunning beaches.

Laugh Out Loud: NFL’s Dirty Dancing tribute ad

Eli Manning and Odell Beckham Jr. had the time of their lives during Super Bowl LII, paying tribute to Dirty Dancing’s famous dance routine and acrobatic leap done by Jennifer Grey and Patrick Swayze.

You are, you’re a Superstar… commercial: Amazon

Amazon brought the star power to their Amazon Echo spot, with Gordon Ramsey, Cardi B, Leslie Jones, Rebel Wilson and Anthony Hopkins, filling in for a voiceless Amazon Alexa.

Get the tissues: Hyundai

Hyundai’s ad where car buyers meeting cancer patients that they helped by purchasing a car hit you right in the feels. It was obvious that every parent was on the edge of tears while watching the videos of patients saying thank you.

If you want to watch all of the Super Bowl ads, check them out here.