NFL Week 14 odds roundup: Chiefs favorites over Raiders among betting lines

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The Kansas City Chiefs have struggled to beat the spread at home and the Oakland Raiders are riding a fairly lengthy against-the-spread streak on the road. Nevertheless, the Chiefs are listed as three-point favorites on the NFL lines against the Raiders with a 46.5-point total in the Thursday Night Football matchup at sportsbooks monitored by OddsShark.com.

The Chiefs are just 1-7 against the spread in their last eight home games at Arrowhead Stadium whereas the Raiders are 8-0 ATS in their last eight road games, according to the OddsShark NFL Database.

Kansas City beat the Atlanta Falcons in Week 13, as the likes of OLB Derrick Johnson, CB Marcus Peters and FS Eric Berry showed they can contain a top offense. Oakland’s Derek Carr leads the NFL’s fifth-best offense. Chiefs QB Alex Smith is not flashy but efficient and Oakland, 30th in total defense, is prone to giving up a lot of yards.

The Dallas Cowboys are favored by three points on the road against the New York Giants in the Sunday Night Football matchup. Cowboys RB Ezekiel Elliott is up against a Giants defense which is much improved, but regressed in Week 13 by allowing Pittsburgh’s Le’Veon Bell to rush for 118 yards. Dallas is 4-2 SU in its last six road games against the Giants, whose poor offensive line might hamper Eli Manning’s best efforts.

The Pittsburgh Steelers are favored by two points on the road against the Buffalo Bills. Snow is in the forecast. The Steelers have given QB Ben Roethlisberger excellent pass protection, and when the Bills pass rush is stopped their defense is beatable. Buffalo is getting WR Sammy Watkins back to complement star RB LeSean McCoy and the fact Buffalo is 9-3 ATS in its last 12 games as a home underdog should not be overlooked.

With the AFC South lead at stake, the Indianapolis Colts are six-point favorites against the Houston Texans. Colts QB Andrew Luck has never lost at home to Houston, which likely needs to get pass rusher Jadeveon Clowney (elbow, wrist) back on the field to have a chance. Texans RB Lamar Miller was absolutely shut down against Green Bay in Week 13, but could bounce back against a mediocre Colts defense.

The Seattle Seahawks are 2.5-point road favorites against the Green Bay Packers. Green Bay is 4-1 ATS in their last five games as an underdog and QB Aaron Rodgers, along with WR Jordy Nelson and TE Jared Cook, pose a strong test for a Seahawks defense that has plugged in FS Steven Terrell for glue guy Earl Thomas (broken tibia). Russell Wilson may actually have a ground game, judging by Thomas Rawls’ 104-yard effort last week against the Carolina Panthers.

And the New England Patriots are seven-point favorites against the Baltimore Ravens in the Monday Night Football matchup. Tom Brady, without Rob Gronkowski but still complemented by the likes of Julian Edelman and LeGarrette Blount, is facing the NFL’s No. 1-ranked defense. Ravens QB Joe Flacco is coming off a strong performance and his team is not only 5-0 ATS in its last five Monday games, but has always competed well at Gillette Stadium.

Patriots settle as small favorites on Super Bowl odds 2019

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For all the narratives that can hang off the great Tom Brady and Super Bowl first-timer Jared Goff, two of the big moving parts in the matchup on Super Sunday involve the rushing phase.

The New England Patriots have settled as 2.5-point favorites on the Super Bowl odds 2019 against the Los Angeles Rams with a 56.5-point total at sportsbooks monitored by OddsShark.com in the Super Bowl 53 matchup slated for Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta on Sunday.

The Bill Belichick- and Brady-led Patriots are 6-2 against the spread in their last eight games as a favorite of 3.0 or fewer points, according to the OddsShark NFL Database, while the Rams are 4-3 straight-up and ATS in their last seven games as an underdog. Interestingly enough, underdogs are 13-4 ATS in the last 17 Super Bowl games.

As so often happens, the last two teams standings are in good health. The biggest exception for New England, whose run defense has been league-average much of the season, is that defensive tackle Malcom Brown (calf) was limited in practice. The Rams claim leading rusher Todd Gurley (left knee inflammation) is 100 per cent after he had only five touches during the NFC championship game two weeks ago.

Backing the Patriots, who are 13-5 SU and 11-7 ATS on the year, involves putting stock in Brady and cohorts’ abundant Super Bowl experience, along with the fact the offense has been at peak form, averaging 38.7 points and 465.7 yards per game over its last three outings.

The Patriots’ offensive line will arguably be the unofficial playoff MVP, collectively, if it contains the Rams’ front four anchored by Aaron Donald, the best defensive lineman in football. If Brady, the subject of many Super Bowl props for Sunday, isn’t disrupted and/or the opposing pass rush is sucking wind after a ball-control drive, the Patriots passing game is lethal.

The Rams, 15-3 SU and 9-7-2 ATS, are new to the tumult of the Super Bowl. However, head coach Sean McVay thrives at creating mismatches, and two of the Rams’ season-long strengths, running out one-back, one-tight end sets and using play-action passes, are not tactics that New England has defended particularly well.

Goff also led five game-winning drives during the season, emerging victorious in quarterback matchups against stars such as Drew Brees, Patrick Mahomes and Russell Wilson (twice).

The total has gone OVER in seven of the Patriots’ last eight games in the playoffs. New England’s last four closely contested playoff games have featured 68, 74, 44 and 62 points.

For more odds information, betting picks and a breakdown of this week’s top sports betting news check out the OddsShark podcast with Jon Campbell and Andrew Avery. Subscribe on iTunes or Spotify or listen to it at OddsShark.libsyn.com.

First commercial, Trump Tweets, Gatorade color among Super Bowl LIII props

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Fans watch the Super Bowl for the commercials as much as the game, which also lends itself to Super Bowl props.

For instance, Bud Light is the -105 favorite have a commercial appear first during the telecast at sportsbooks monitored by OddsShark.com. The brewer has a long track record of attention-getting ads, and making a first impression can whet the appetite for something later on in the evening.

Budweiser (+200) is a second favorite on that prop and there might be longshot value on Stella Artois (+550), whose ad will include Jeff Bridges and Sarah Jessica Parker reprising their respective roles from The Big Lebowski and Sex and the City. Michelob Ultra (+550) and Bon & Viv Spiked Seltzer (+550) are also on the board.

The total number of commercials is set at 96, with both the over and under priced at -120. In the car commercial prop, Hyundai (-250) is favored against Mercedes-Benz (+170), but it might be worth playing a hunch since the February 3 game is at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta.

Atlanta has also been hit by wintry weather this week, and it’s -140 on the Super Bowl 2019 prop bets on the stadium’s roof being closed against even money for open.

The previous two championship matchups each had over 60 points scored, and the New England Patriots and Los Angeles Rams are certainly capable of trading touchdowns. It is -140 that any scoring drive will consume less game time than however long it will take Gladys Knight to perform The Star-Spangled Banner.

As far as coach props, the over/under is 1.5 on broadcaster references to the relative youthfulness of 33-year-old Rams coach Sean McVay, with the over (-220) favored against the under (+155). Los Angeles is the underdog on the 2019 Super Bowl odds.

There is also a total set for the number of tweets from President Donald Trump’s Twitter account during the big game. Over 6.0 tweets is a -140 favorite with the under an even-money underdog. It is -650 on Trump not attending the game and +375 on him showing up. He did not attend Super Bowl LII in 2018.

A cross-sport bet is whether Houston Rockets star James Harden’s streak of 30-point games – 24 and counting – will end before Super Bowl LIII does, with -120 odds either way. Harden’s next two opponents, the Denver Nuggets and Utah Jazz, have each managed to keep him under 30 at least once this season.

As far as props that pay off postgame are concerned, there is the ever-popular bet on what color liquid the winning coach will be doused in after the game. Clear / water (+220) is a slim favorite over lime / green / yellow (+225), followed by orange (+400), blue (+400), red (+600) and purple (+1000). The Patriots, for what it might be worth, have poured a clear liquid on coach Bill Belichick following each of their four most recent Super Bowl wins.

For more odds information, betting picks and a breakdown of this week’s top sports betting news check out the OddsShark podcast with Jon Campbell and Andrew Avery. Subscribe on iTunes or Spotify or listen to it at OddsShark.libsyn.com.