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NFL Week 12 Betting Lines Include Favored Patriots, Broncos, Seahawks

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Tom Brady and the New England Patriots have a revenge game against the New York Jets, although the history says a statement win might not be in the offing.

With the Jets going back to league interceptions leader Ryan Fitzpatrick, the Patriots are 8.5-point favorites on the NFL point spreads for Sunday at sportsbooks monitored by OddsShark.com. New England lost its most recent meeting against the Jets on the road last December, but they are 16-2 straight-up after losing the previous game of a matchup.

However, they are 0-5-1 against the spread in their last six games against the Jets.

Patriots TE Rob Gronkowski (chest) is considered questionable, but TE Martellus Bennett is a great option and the Patriots are also re-integrating RB Dion Lewis into Brady’s arsenal of receivers. In nine starts against the Patriots, Fitzpatrick’s teams are 2-7 SU and the Harvard product has thrown 17 interceptions. However, most teams are able to enjoy some offensive production against New England, which lacks a quality pass rush.

The Atlanta Falcons are favored by four points against the Arizona Cardinals. Matt Ryan and the Falcons’ prolific offense will have to be patient against the Cardinals, who have allowed an NFL-low seven touchdown passes. Cardinals RB David Johnson will be beastly against the Falcons, but one should keep an eye on how Arizona delegates duties if head coach Bruce Arians (chest pains) is not on the sideline.

The Denver Broncos are the 3.5-point favorite against the Kansas City Chiefs in the Sunday Night Football matchup. The Broncos have regained CB Aqib Talib and DE Derek Wolfe, while the status of Kansas City’s shutdown CB Marcus Peters (hip) is up in the air. The Chiefs, who were upset by Tampa Bay in Week 11, are 1-4 ATS in their last five games after losing as the favorite.

The Seattle Seahawks are favored by five points against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. The Buccaneers are 3-8 SU in their last 11 games after winning as the underdog. Leading receiver Mike Evans will also have Seahawks CB Richard Sherman in his face. Tampa Bay is thin in defensive backs, so there should be some mismatches available to Seahawks QB Russell Wilson.

The Houston Texans host the San Diego Chargers in a pick’em. The Chargers, coming off a bye, could pose problems for the porous Texans run defense and QB Philip Rivers excels at beating the blitz. Houston is 5-0 SU and 4-0-1 ATS in their last five home games, but erratic QB Brock Osweiler going against a pass defense with 11 interceptions (third in the NFL) might be a shaky proposition for bettors.

The week begins with three Thanksgiving Day games.

The Detroit Lions are the 2.5-point favorite against the Minnesota Vikings. Lions QB Matthew Stafford has a tough test against one of the NFL’s best pass defenses. The Vikings are 9-2 SU and ATS in their last 11 games as a underdog of 2.5 points or less.

The Dallas Cowboys are the 6.5-point favorite against the Washington Redskins. Washington is 9-1 ATS in its last 10 games as an underdog of seven points or less and QB Kirk Cousins is facing a Cowboys pass defense which has a paltry four interceptions.

And the Pittsburgh Steelers are favored by three points on the road against the Indianapolis Colts. The matchup of 5-5 teams could be predicated on what crumbles first: Pittsburgh’s pass defense against Colts QB Andrew Luck or Indianapolis’ run defense against Steelers RB Le’Veon Bell.

NFL Draft Betting Value Rests Beyond Browns’ No. 1 Overall Pick

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The only certainty on the morning of the 2018 NFL draft is that the Cleveland Browns, with the No. 1 and 4 overall picks, will take a quarterback – which has created a ripple effect on other betting props.

Southern California quarterback Sam Darnold is the -180 favorite to be the No. 1 overall choice in the 2018 NFL draft that takes begins in Arlington, Texas on Thursday, according to sportsbooks monitored by OddsShark.com.

The other players in the No. 1 pick prop include three other quarterbacks, Wyoming’s Josh Allen (+175), Oklahoma’s Baker Mayfield (+450) and UCLA’s Josh Rosen (+1800), plus Penn State running back Saquon Barkley (+600) and North Carolina State defensive end Bradley Chubb (+4500).

Quarterbacks have been taken No. 1 in 12 of the last 17 drafts and no running back has been the top pick since 1995. Darnold’s price might reflect an expectation that his skillset is most in tune with conventional NFL thinking. If a bettor believes the Browns will buck convention, well, Allen is believed to have better physical tools and there is the Hail Mary option of Mayfield, whose competitiveness and athleticism is offset by being short for a NFL quarterback.

The quarterback-at-No. 1 argument adds values to other props. Barkley (+175) has the lowest price but is still plus money as the No. 2 overall selection on the 2018 NFL draft betting props board. The New York Giants have that pick and general manager Dave Gettleman does not have a history of trading down at the draft. The Giants haven’t indicated a focus on a QB, which seemingly rules out Darnold (+275), Allen (+350) and Rosen (+400).

The New York Jets are a lock to take a quarterback, creating a very tight No. 3 overall prop between Rosen (+140) and Mayfield (+160). The play there depends on what type of risk bettors believe the Jets want to take on: with Mayfield, the only knock is his height (a smidge about 6-foot), while Rosen battled concussions in college.

Between the Browns also holding the No. 4 choice and the Denver Broncos possibly trading down from No. 5, the +225 price on whether one of the first five picks will be traded is a very enticing proposition. The Buffalo Bills are one of the quarterback-hungry teams with two first-round picks they could ante to move up in the draft order, while speculation also has the New England Patriots looking to move up, since Tom Brady presumably will not play forever.

Position props can also be great fun. The over/under on quarterbacks selected in the first round is 5.5. Only once – the famed John Elway-Jim Kelly-Dan Marino draft in 1983 – have six QBs gone in the first round. Tying that record would require both Louisville’s Lamar Jackson and Oklahoma State’s Mason Rudolph to go in the first round. The over/under on Jackson’s draft slot is 17.5

It is considered a thin year for elite wide receivers, so the -150 under on the 2.5 total seems like the percentage play. Teams have been wary of using first-rounders on running backs in recent years, but the total is only 1.5, making the -220 over a realistic hit since, after Barkley goes, only one team would have to take a chance on a back such as Louisiana State’s Derrius Guice or Georgia’s Sony Michel.

For more odds information, betting picks and a breakdown of this week’s top sports betting news check out the OddsShark podcast with Jon Campbell and Andrew Avery. Subscribe on iTunes or listen to it at OddsShark.libsyn.com.

 

 

Best ads from Super Bowl LII

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The best Super Bowl ads made us laugh, cry, and audibly wonder how much a trip to Australia would cost.

Here are some of the best ads from Super Bowl LII:

GOAT Ad: Doritos, Mountain Dew collaboration with Peter Dinklage and Morgan Freeman rapping Busta Rhymes and Missy Elliott

Peter Dinklage and Morgan Freeman in any Super Bowl commercial was going to be epic, but having them RAP (lip sync, obviously) Busta Rhymes and Missy Elliott?! That was what Super Bowl commercials are made for.

Leaving on a Jet Plane: Australia Tourism

It’s cold on the East Coast right now and Australia looks nice and warm, so this ad should move Australia to the next spot on your vacation list. The ad referenced a “remake” of ‘Crocodile Dundee’ with Chris Hemsworth and Danny McBride, the incredible Australian wine, and stunning beaches.

Laugh Out Loud: NFL’s Dirty Dancing tribute ad

Eli Manning and Odell Beckham Jr. had the time of their lives during Super Bowl LII, paying tribute to Dirty Dancing’s famous dance routine and acrobatic leap done by Jennifer Grey and Patrick Swayze.

You are, you’re a Superstar… commercial: Amazon

Amazon brought the star power to their Amazon Echo spot, with Gordon Ramsey, Cardi B, Leslie Jones, Rebel Wilson and Anthony Hopkins, filling in for a voiceless Amazon Alexa.

Get the tissues: Hyundai

Hyundai’s ad where car buyers meeting cancer patients that they helped by purchasing a car hit you right in the feels. It was obvious that every parent was on the edge of tears while watching the videos of patients saying thank you.

If you want to watch all of the Super Bowl ads, check them out here.