NFL Week 11 odds roundup: Panthers, Redskins, Raiders primetime favorites

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The determining factor in a matchup between the Cam Newton-led Carolina Panthers and Drew Brees’ New Orleans Saints might well be which team can slow down the opposing quarterback.

The Panthers are three-point favorites against the Saints on Thursday night at sportsbooks monitored by OddsShark.com. The form suggests each quarterback could go off for 300-plus yards – which says plenty about a pair of poor pass defenses – but the Panthers have been getting to quarterbacks more often and still have a decent run defense.

The Panthers are 8-3 against the spread in their 11 home games, according to the OddsShark NFL Database.

The Washington Redskins are the 2.5-point favorite against the Green Bay Packers in the Sunday night matchup. However, one of these weeks, Aaron Rodgers and the Packers will fix their issues, and Washington’s run defense is spotty.

Washington and quarterback Kirk Cousins, who are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games as a favorite, will have tight end Jordan Reed closer to full speed in his second game back from injury.

The Oakland Raiders are favored by six points against the Houston Texans in the Monday Night Football game at Estadio Azteca in Mexico City.

The Raiders are 4-14 straight-up in their last 18 games after consecutive wins. However, quarterback Derek Carr and running back Latavius Murray thrived two weeks ago against the Denver Broncos, who, like the Texans, struggle to stop the run but have a highly-rated pass defense.

The Arizona Cardinals-Minnesota Vikings matchup is a pick’em. The Cardinals, led by quarterback Carson Palmer and running back David Johnson, will need to be less boom-or-bust offensively against a strong Vikings defense.

Minnesota quarterback Sam Bradford might not be able to do enough to overcome being saddled with having the NFL’s worst running game against linebacker Deone Bucannon and Arizona’s fleet defense.

The Seattle Seahawks are favored by 6.5 points against the Philadelphia Eagles. The Eagles will need quarterback Carson Wentz, tight end Zach Ertz and wide receiver Jordan Matthews to attack the seams in Seattle’s pass defense in order to open up other opportunities.

Seattle is 5-1 ATS in their last six games after winning as an underdog, but the Eagles’ pass rush is one of the NFL’s best. Meanwhile, the New England Patriots’ pass rush, whom quarterback Russell Wilson carved up last week, is one of the worst.

And finally, the Miami Dolphins are one-point road favorites against the Los Angeles Rams as No. 1 overall pick Jared Goff readies for his first start as the Rams’ quarterback. For Miami to end an 0-5 SU and ATS streak in road games following a road win, they will need to neutralize Rams defensive tackle Aaron Donald in order to help running back Jay Ajayi and quarterback Ryan Tannehill be productive.

Cris Collinsworth, Pro Football Focus writers explain how analytics are changing the NFL

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Peter King is on vacation until July 15, and he lined up some guest writers to fill his Monday spot on Football Morning in America. Today, it’s a collaborative effort by Pro Football Focus, the popular football analytics website. To start, here’s PFF Majority Owner and NBC’s Sunday Night Football color analyst Cris Collinsworth.

How data is impacting the landscape of football

When I broadcast my first NFL game during the 1989 season, I had absolutely no idea what to study or how to study. NBC provided me with a handful of newspaper articles, we watched some film at the team facility on Friday before the game, and we interviewed some players and coaches. I took notes, but I didn’t even have a board with the players’ names and numbers on it.

I was thrown into the deep end of the pool. This was going to be the shortest broadcasting career ever. Luckily, I had David Michaels as my producer (yes, Al Michaels’ brother). David had worked for years with Terry Bradshaw, and Terry had created these boards for calling games. The positions were aligned on this board where they would line up on the field. Offense facing defense, back-ups behind starters. All I had to do was fill in the blanks. Once again, my friend Terry was ahead of his time, and David showed me how to use it.

When I think back to those days, it’s pretty comical. Today, I could never read, watch or study all the data that I have available to me. In 2014, I bought controlling interest in Pro Football Focus. At the time we had 60 employees evaluating every player on every play of the NFL season. Now we have nearly 500 employees, providing data to 90 NFL and NCAA teams, multiple television networks and individuals who use it for private purposes. I won’t get into all the details, but if you are a data scientist, mathematician or IT specialist, and you love football, we are hiring.

PFF has already changed the way I think about building a team and play-calling. I can remember a time when everybody thought Andy Reid was crazy for passing 60% of the time. He doesn’t look so crazy now. I remember when running backs were thought to be the most valuable position; now they are considered the easiest to replace based on our WAR (wins above replacement) metric. I think it is fair to say that now very few NFL contracts are negotiated without PFF data being at the heart of the debate. The agent pitches all the positive data about the player, and the team is loaded with all the not so positive data. Some of those negotiating stories are pretty entertaining.

But as much as the data has changed broadcasting, it has changed the game of football even more. “Gut instincts” are no longer good enough. Decisions must be made based on the data. Every year at the NFL Scouting Combine in Indianapolis, PFF meets with nearly every team. I always laugh when somebody starts telling me about “old school” coaches in the league. I won’t mention names, but some of the “old school” coaches have recently blown me away with their knowledge of the data.

I sat in on a meeting with a team that had seven data scientists, mathematicians and IT specialists from Harvard, Stanford and M.I.T. all in the room, and they were loaded with questions that would make your head spin. Luckily, I had the people in the room with the answers. Of course, there are teams that are not quite that sophisticated, and it is getting more and more difficult for them to compete. The data arms race is very real, and it is widening the gap between those who engage, and those who don’t.

The fans are now engaged in the data arms race, as well. Fantasy football had always created a market for data, but since May 2018, when the Supreme Court ruled 6-3 against the Professional and Amateur Sports Protection Act that effectively barred state-authorized sports gambling, a new aspect in the arms race has opened to fans. Whether anyone likes it or not, there is no stopping state-sponsored gambling on football and other sports. We have seen a real spike in our consumer sales of our Edge and Elite products. Some fans just want to know more about their team, others want to be the smartest person at the water cooler, some want to dominate their fantasy league, and others still are writing their own gambling algorithms. Regardless, there is no going back now. Data has changed the game.

 

For more PFF writers’ analysis, read more from this week’s Football Morning in America here

Patriots settle as small favorites on Super Bowl odds 2019

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For all the narratives that can hang off the great Tom Brady and Super Bowl first-timer Jared Goff, two of the big moving parts in the matchup on Super Sunday involve the rushing phase.

The New England Patriots have settled as 2.5-point favorites on the Super Bowl odds 2019 against the Los Angeles Rams with a 56.5-point total at sportsbooks monitored by OddsShark.com in the Super Bowl 53 matchup slated for Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta on Sunday.

The Bill Belichick- and Brady-led Patriots are 6-2 against the spread in their last eight games as a favorite of 3.0 or fewer points, according to the OddsShark NFL Database, while the Rams are 4-3 straight-up and ATS in their last seven games as an underdog. Interestingly enough, underdogs are 13-4 ATS in the last 17 Super Bowl games.

As so often happens, the last two teams standings are in good health. The biggest exception for New England, whose run defense has been league-average much of the season, is that defensive tackle Malcom Brown (calf) was limited in practice. The Rams claim leading rusher Todd Gurley (left knee inflammation) is 100 per cent after he had only five touches during the NFC championship game two weeks ago.

Backing the Patriots, who are 13-5 SU and 11-7 ATS on the year, involves putting stock in Brady and cohorts’ abundant Super Bowl experience, along with the fact the offense has been at peak form, averaging 38.7 points and 465.7 yards per game over its last three outings.

The Patriots’ offensive line will arguably be the unofficial playoff MVP, collectively, if it contains the Rams’ front four anchored by Aaron Donald, the best defensive lineman in football. If Brady, the subject of many Super Bowl props for Sunday, isn’t disrupted and/or the opposing pass rush is sucking wind after a ball-control drive, the Patriots passing game is lethal.

The Rams, 15-3 SU and 9-7-2 ATS, are new to the tumult of the Super Bowl. However, head coach Sean McVay thrives at creating mismatches, and two of the Rams’ season-long strengths, running out one-back, one-tight end sets and using play-action passes, are not tactics that New England has defended particularly well.

Goff also led five game-winning drives during the season, emerging victorious in quarterback matchups against stars such as Drew Brees, Patrick Mahomes and Russell Wilson (twice).

The total has gone OVER in seven of the Patriots’ last eight games in the playoffs. New England’s last four closely contested playoff games have featured 68, 74, 44 and 62 points.

For more odds information, betting picks and a breakdown of this week’s top sports betting news check out the OddsShark podcast with Jon Campbell and Andrew Avery. Subscribe on iTunes or Spotify or listen to it at OddsShark.libsyn.com.