NFL Week 11 odds roundup: Panthers, Redskins, Raiders primetime favorites

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The determining factor in a matchup between the Cam Newton-led Carolina Panthers and Drew Brees’ New Orleans Saints might well be which team can slow down the opposing quarterback.

The Panthers are three-point favorites against the Saints on Thursday night at sportsbooks monitored by OddsShark.com. The form suggests each quarterback could go off for 300-plus yards – which says plenty about a pair of poor pass defenses – but the Panthers have been getting to quarterbacks more often and still have a decent run defense.

The Panthers are 8-3 against the spread in their 11 home games, according to the OddsShark NFL Database.

The Washington Redskins are the 2.5-point favorite against the Green Bay Packers in the Sunday night matchup. However, one of these weeks, Aaron Rodgers and the Packers will fix their issues, and Washington’s run defense is spotty.

Washington and quarterback Kirk Cousins, who are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games as a favorite, will have tight end Jordan Reed closer to full speed in his second game back from injury.

The Oakland Raiders are favored by six points against the Houston Texans in the Monday Night Football game at Estadio Azteca in Mexico City.

The Raiders are 4-14 straight-up in their last 18 games after consecutive wins. However, quarterback Derek Carr and running back Latavius Murray thrived two weeks ago against the Denver Broncos, who, like the Texans, struggle to stop the run but have a highly-rated pass defense.

The Arizona Cardinals-Minnesota Vikings matchup is a pick’em. The Cardinals, led by quarterback Carson Palmer and running back David Johnson, will need to be less boom-or-bust offensively against a strong Vikings defense.

Minnesota quarterback Sam Bradford might not be able to do enough to overcome being saddled with having the NFL’s worst running game against linebacker Deone Bucannon and Arizona’s fleet defense.

The Seattle Seahawks are favored by 6.5 points against the Philadelphia Eagles. The Eagles will need quarterback Carson Wentz, tight end Zach Ertz and wide receiver Jordan Matthews to attack the seams in Seattle’s pass defense in order to open up other opportunities.

Seattle is 5-1 ATS in their last six games after winning as an underdog, but the Eagles’ pass rush is one of the NFL’s best. Meanwhile, the New England Patriots’ pass rush, whom quarterback Russell Wilson carved up last week, is one of the worst.

And finally, the Miami Dolphins are one-point road favorites against the Los Angeles Rams as No. 1 overall pick Jared Goff readies for his first start as the Rams’ quarterback. For Miami to end an 0-5 SU and ATS streak in road games following a road win, they will need to neutralize Rams defensive tackle Aaron Donald in order to help running back Jay Ajayi and quarterback Ryan Tannehill be productive.

Patriots settle as small favorites on Super Bowl odds 2019

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For all the narratives that can hang off the great Tom Brady and Super Bowl first-timer Jared Goff, two of the big moving parts in the matchup on Super Sunday involve the rushing phase.

The New England Patriots have settled as 2.5-point favorites on the Super Bowl odds 2019 against the Los Angeles Rams with a 56.5-point total at sportsbooks monitored by OddsShark.com in the Super Bowl 53 matchup slated for Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta on Sunday.

The Bill Belichick- and Brady-led Patriots are 6-2 against the spread in their last eight games as a favorite of 3.0 or fewer points, according to the OddsShark NFL Database, while the Rams are 4-3 straight-up and ATS in their last seven games as an underdog. Interestingly enough, underdogs are 13-4 ATS in the last 17 Super Bowl games.

As so often happens, the last two teams standings are in good health. The biggest exception for New England, whose run defense has been league-average much of the season, is that defensive tackle Malcom Brown (calf) was limited in practice. The Rams claim leading rusher Todd Gurley (left knee inflammation) is 100 per cent after he had only five touches during the NFC championship game two weeks ago.

Backing the Patriots, who are 13-5 SU and 11-7 ATS on the year, involves putting stock in Brady and cohorts’ abundant Super Bowl experience, along with the fact the offense has been at peak form, averaging 38.7 points and 465.7 yards per game over its last three outings.

The Patriots’ offensive line will arguably be the unofficial playoff MVP, collectively, if it contains the Rams’ front four anchored by Aaron Donald, the best defensive lineman in football. If Brady, the subject of many Super Bowl props for Sunday, isn’t disrupted and/or the opposing pass rush is sucking wind after a ball-control drive, the Patriots passing game is lethal.

The Rams, 15-3 SU and 9-7-2 ATS, are new to the tumult of the Super Bowl. However, head coach Sean McVay thrives at creating mismatches, and two of the Rams’ season-long strengths, running out one-back, one-tight end sets and using play-action passes, are not tactics that New England has defended particularly well.

Goff also led five game-winning drives during the season, emerging victorious in quarterback matchups against stars such as Drew Brees, Patrick Mahomes and Russell Wilson (twice).

The total has gone OVER in seven of the Patriots’ last eight games in the playoffs. New England’s last four closely contested playoff games have featured 68, 74, 44 and 62 points.

For more odds information, betting picks and a breakdown of this week’s top sports betting news check out the OddsShark podcast with Jon Campbell and Andrew Avery. Subscribe on iTunes or Spotify or listen to it at OddsShark.libsyn.com.

First commercial, Trump Tweets, Gatorade color among Super Bowl LIII props

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Fans watch the Super Bowl for the commercials as much as the game, which also lends itself to Super Bowl props.

For instance, Bud Light is the -105 favorite have a commercial appear first during the telecast at sportsbooks monitored by OddsShark.com. The brewer has a long track record of attention-getting ads, and making a first impression can whet the appetite for something later on in the evening.

Budweiser (+200) is a second favorite on that prop and there might be longshot value on Stella Artois (+550), whose ad will include Jeff Bridges and Sarah Jessica Parker reprising their respective roles from The Big Lebowski and Sex and the City. Michelob Ultra (+550) and Bon & Viv Spiked Seltzer (+550) are also on the board.

The total number of commercials is set at 96, with both the over and under priced at -120. In the car commercial prop, Hyundai (-250) is favored against Mercedes-Benz (+170), but it might be worth playing a hunch since the February 3 game is at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta.

Atlanta has also been hit by wintry weather this week, and it’s -140 on the Super Bowl 2019 prop bets on the stadium’s roof being closed against even money for open.

The previous two championship matchups each had over 60 points scored, and the New England Patriots and Los Angeles Rams are certainly capable of trading touchdowns. It is -140 that any scoring drive will consume less game time than however long it will take Gladys Knight to perform The Star-Spangled Banner.

As far as coach props, the over/under is 1.5 on broadcaster references to the relative youthfulness of 33-year-old Rams coach Sean McVay, with the over (-220) favored against the under (+155). Los Angeles is the underdog on the 2019 Super Bowl odds.

There is also a total set for the number of tweets from President Donald Trump’s Twitter account during the big game. Over 6.0 tweets is a -140 favorite with the under an even-money underdog. It is -650 on Trump not attending the game and +375 on him showing up. He did not attend Super Bowl LII in 2018.

A cross-sport bet is whether Houston Rockets star James Harden’s streak of 30-point games – 24 and counting – will end before Super Bowl LIII does, with -120 odds either way. Harden’s next two opponents, the Denver Nuggets and Utah Jazz, have each managed to keep him under 30 at least once this season.

As far as props that pay off postgame are concerned, there is the ever-popular bet on what color liquid the winning coach will be doused in after the game. Clear / water (+220) is a slim favorite over lime / green / yellow (+225), followed by orange (+400), blue (+400), red (+600) and purple (+1000). The Patriots, for what it might be worth, have poured a clear liquid on coach Bill Belichick following each of their four most recent Super Bowl wins.

For more odds information, betting picks and a breakdown of this week’s top sports betting news check out the OddsShark podcast with Jon Campbell and Andrew Avery. Subscribe on iTunes or Spotify or listen to it at OddsShark.libsyn.com.