The Washington Capitals and Alex Ovechkin have a good underdog trend that goes hand-in-hand with the belief that something is different in their latest playoff matchup against the Pittsburgh Penguins.
The Penguins are the -160 betting favorite for Game 4 of their second-round series on Thursday night, with the Capitals coming back at +140 on the moneyline and a 6.0 total at sportsbooks monitored by OddsShark.com.
The Capitals will be without right wing Tom Wilson (three-game suspension for checking an opponent in the head), but the OddsShark NHL Database shows that they are a more than respectable 8-5 in their last 13 games as a moneyline underdog of +130 or more. Washington is also 5-0 in its last five road games.
The Capitals’ postseason history with the Penguins – all-time, they’ve lost nine out of 10 series against their Metropolitan Division rival – is so well-documented that it barely needs mentioning. However, Washington, which leads the series 2-1, comes in with the more reliable goalie.
Braden Holtby has a 2.08 goals-against average and .925 save percentage during eight playoff games. In contrast, Penguins goalie Matt Murray has a 2.48 goals-against average and .906 save percentage but has had four starts already in the playoffs where his save percentage was less than .900.
No team with Sidney Crosby should be written off and the parity-driven nature of the NHL might lead some bettors to believe Washington cannot win twice in a row in Pittsburgh. However, the Penguins are just 16-14 in their last 30 home games as a moneyline favorite of -150 or farther into minus money.
The total has gone over in five of the Penguins’ last eight home playoff games, with three pushes.
Elsewhere on Thursday night, the Winnipeg Jets (-145) are favored against the Nashville Predators (+125), also with a 6.0-goal total in Game 4 of their second-round series. Winnipeg leads the series 2-1.
The Jets, led by center Mark Scheifele, are 13-0 in their last 13 home games at MTS Centre, although the total has gone over in just six of those contests. Winnipeg is also 4-1 at home in its last five home games against Nashville. With the Jets having 15 goals in the series’ first three games, there has been little sign that Nashville can handle the Jets’ speed and tempo.
The Predators were the favorites on the Stanley Cup odds at the outset of the playoffs but have been consistently inconsistent as an away team, going 6-6 in their last 12 road games as the underdog. While Nashville has one of the NHL’s deepest defense corps with the likes of Ryan Ellis and P.K. Subban, it is also just 4-8 in its last 12 playoff road games.
The total has gone over in eight of Nashville’s last 10 road games against fellow Central Division teams. The total has gone over in seven of Minnesota’s last 11 home games against Central Division teams.
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