With Novak Djokovic, there is a question of motivation now that the chance of a calendar-year Grand Slam is long gone.
Djokovic and Serena Williams, respectively, have the top odds on the men’s and women’s champion boards heading into the U.S. Open. The last Grand Slam of the tennis season begins on Monday at the USTA Billie Jean King National Tennis Center in New York.
On the men’s board, Djokovic is listed at even odds, with Andy Murray nipping at his heels at +180 by virtue of winning Wimbledon and the Olympic gold medal.
Since his third-round loss at Wimbledon, Djokovic has also had early exits in both singles and doubles at the Olympics. The flip side of that is Djokovic has played only nine singles matches in three months, meaning he should be fresh.
For his part, Murray has a chance to finish the season with appearances in all four major finals, plus the Olympics. The Scottish star might need help against Djokovic, whom he is 1-4 against in their last five matches on hard courts.
Beyond the big two, there is a big drop down to heavy-serving Canadian Milos Raonic at +1200 on the tennis odds. Juan Martin del Potro and Stan Wawrinka are both at +1600, while Marin Cilic and Rafael Nadal are each listed at +2000.
Raonic, whose serve is in a class of its own, is seeded fifth. That creates the possibility of a semifinal showdown against Djokovic, whom he is 0-7 against in his career. Cilic is also an intriguing darkhorse. He won the 2014 title but didn’t encounter Djokovic, and was a 2015 semifinalist.
Williams, at +120, is alone at the top of the women’s champion board, with No. 2 seed Angelique Kerber, No. 3 Garbine Mugurza and No. 5 Simona Halep each listed at +800. Promising young American Madison Keys, who is seeded eighth, is listed at +1400.
Halep is only 1-7 in her career against Williams, but the win was on a hard surface at the Indian Wells tournament. Mugurza is 2-3 against Williams, but each win came on clay. The tournament is Williams’ to lose.
Roberta Vinci, Williams’ nemesis in the 2015 semifinal, is listed at +15000 on the tennis betting lines. That upset came in Vinci’s only trip beyond the fourth round of a major.