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Indians, Rangers odds improve to win World Series after trade deadline

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Winning the non-waiver trade deadline has resulted in the Cleveland Indians and Texas Rangers climbing up the odds to win the 2016 World Series, although the Chicago Cubs retain the top betting line at sportsbooks monitored by OddsShark.com.

The Cubs are listed at +350, which is no surprise for a team which has the highest run differential in Major League Baseball and has led the NL Central division since April 11. Chicago’s big move before the deadline expired on Monday was trading for left-handed closer Aroldis Chapman. A team can never have too many options in the bullpen, and the Cubs also added lefty specialist Mike Montgomery and sidearmer Joe Smith.

The Rangers’ odds have come down to +650 after GM Jon Daniels brought in OF Carlos Beltran and C Jonathan Lucroy. Beltran offers a middle-of-the-order masher, while Lucroy is an all-star catcher who should offer a benefit to the Rangers’ pitchers. Texas didn’t land a starting pitcher, though, and it’s fair to wonder if that will bite them in the long run.

The San Francisco Giants are also listed at +650 after adding Matt Moore to be the second lefty in their starting rotation. The Giants are in a NL West division race with the Los Angeles Dodgers (+1600). The Dodgers responded to ace Clayton Kershaw going on the disabled list by going 18-10 in July, but that could be hard to sustain. There is no ETA on Kershaw’s possible return this season.

Cleveland is listed at +750 after acquiring LHP Andrew Miller from the New York Yankees, giving them a high-end reliever to close out wins for a deep ensemble of starters. The prospect of Cleveland possibly having home-field advantage throughout the postseason, when pitching dominates in chilly conditions, makes them an enticing betting possibility.

The Washington Nationals, who lead the NL East and own MLB’s second-greatest run differential, are also listed at +750. Washington added a big name by getting closer Mark Melancon from the Pittsburgh Pirates as a rental player.

Over in the AL East, the Toronto Blue Jays have the lowest odds at +900, with the Boston Red Sox and Baltimore Orioles’ odds rising to +1200 and +1600 respectively. Toronto stuck to buy-low moves, trading with the Pirates for LHP Francisco Liriano, who is leading the NL in bases on balls but will be reunited with former personal catcher Russell Martin.

Speaking of buying low, there are the defending NL champion New York Mets at +2800, whose best-case scenario for the playoffs probably involves the one-game wild-card series. The Mets pushed their chips in to add lefty power by picking up OF Jay Bruce from the Cincinnati Reds. Bruce’s road split is better than his stats at Great American Ball Park, so moving to Citi Field shouldn’t hurt his productivity.

Yankees move to the top of the 2018 World Series Odds

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The top three offensive teams in Major League Baseball are also at the top of the 2018 World Series champion futures board.

With the MLB regular season nearing its midpoint, the New York Yankees are the +500 favorite on the 2018 World Series odds at sportsbooks monitored by OddsShark.com. The defending champion Houston Astros (+525) and the Yankees’ AL East archrivals, the Boston Red Sox (+600), round out the troika of top contenders.

Led by Aaron Judge, the Yankees lead MLB in runs, home runs and slugging percentage. The Yankees will be upgrading a pitching staff that allows almost four runs per game before the July 31 non-waiver trade deadline, so it’s possible that their betting value will never be greater than it is presently.

No World Series champion has repeated since the 1998-2000 Yankees. But the Astros, thanks to the likes of Justin Verlander, have gone from ninth in runs against in 2017 to first by a country mile so far this season.

The Red Sox, led by rightfielder Mookie Betts, are the only team other than the Astros which is in the top four in runs scored and runs against. However, the AL East is a much shallower division than the AL West, which has only one mediocre-or-worse team compared to the East’s three.

For what it might be worth, the last six World Series titles in even-numbered years have been won by National League teams. The Chicago Cubs (+750), Washington Nationals (+800) and Los Angeles Dodgers (+1000) are the highest NL teams on the board. All three are retaining value due to strong competition for first place in their respective divisions from the Milwaukee Brewers (+1600), Atlanta Braves (+1600) and Arizona Diamondbacks (+2800).

The Dodgers are an interesting highly speculative play, having rejoined the living after falling 10 games below .500 at the quarter-pole of the regular season. If ace left-hander Clayton Kershaw (back) ever gets healthy, the Dodgers could resume being a dangerous team.

The Cleveland Indians (+2200) will be a postseason team since MLB rules say someone has to win the AL Central. Cleveland has a first-rank pitching staff led by Corey Kluber, but a league-average offense could be its downfall come October.

The last four World Series champions each qualified for the playoffs within the two seasons prior. That doesn’t mean that upstarts such as Atlanta, Milwaukee, the Philadelphia Phillies (+2000) or the Seattle Mariners (+1600) should be faded automatically. Atlanta has played the fewest one-run games among those four teams, while Seattle has played the most in MLB, suggesting randomness and luck have been on the Mariners’ side so far.

While winning the World Series involves eking out some low-scoring wins, teams talented enough to reach that stage don’t always live on the margins. Two recent champions, the 2014 San Francisco Giants and 2015 Kansas City Royals, had losing records in one-run games during the regular-season.

For more odds information, betting picks and a breakdown of this week’s top sports betting news check out the OddsShark podcast with Jon Campbell and Andrew Avery. Subscribe on iTunes or listen to it at OddsShark.libsyn.com.

Value in 2018 MLB Pennant Odds Ranges Beyond Astros, Yankees, Dodgers

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Only three teams have won consecutive pennants in the last 16 Major League Baseball seasons, which should be a nudge to look beyond the teams about to unfurl flags celebrating 2017 success.

Three weeks out from Opening Day, the defending World Series champion Houston Astros and the New York Yankees are +275 co-favorites on the odds to win the 2018 American League pennant  and the Los Angeles Dodgers have the National League’s top prop at +225, according to sportsbooks monitored by OddsShark.com.

The Astros have a strong chance to repeat as AL champions thanks to the prospect of having a full season of both Gerrit Cole and Justin Verlander in the starting rotation, which should upgrade a pitching staff that had just the 11th-best earned-run average in MLB in 2017. The hype over the Aaron Judge-Giancarlo Stanton show has pushed the Yankees’ price below 3-to-1, but a wait-and-see approach should be taken with New York, since both sluggers could regress.

The Cleveland Indians (+325) and Boston Red Sox (+600) round out the top of the AL board. The Minnesota Twins (+1800), who have quietly improved and play in a shallow AL Central division, could be a surprise.

Over in the National League, the Dodgers still look scary at bat and on the mound and could benefit from getting a push in the NL West, where the San Francisco Giants (+1000), Arizona Diamondbacks (+1200) and Colorado Rockies (+1800) have no time for tanking. Iron sharpens iron, after all.

The Washington Nationals (+350) and Chicago Cubs (+375) likely won’t face such a deep group of challengers in their respective divisions, the NL East and NL Central. Since the Nationals are in a now-or-never situation with one-time MVP Bryce Harper due to become a free agent, there is some appeal in putting a bet down just to tap into that urgency in Washington. The Cubs should field a playoff-calibre team, but whether they ever re-capture their 2016 postseason magic remains to be seen.

It’s probably best to fade the St. Louis Cardinals (+900) and the aforementioned Giants, whose prices on the 2018 National League pennant odds owe more to history or recent success than the outlook on the field in 2018. Bettors seeking a sleeper have a far greater return by taking, say, Colorado, which has an exciting lineup built around third baseman Nolan Arenado and made the 2017 playoffs with the second-youngest pitching staff in all of MLB.

For more odds information, betting picks and a breakdown of this week’s top sports betting news check out the OddsShark podcast with Jon Campbell and Andrew Avery. Subscribe on iTunes or listen to it at OddsShark.libsyn.com.