Team USA, with Kevin Durant, Draymond Green and Klay Thompson offering a sneak peak at what the Golden State Warriors’ superteam will look like during the NBA season, has been winning their pre-Olympic men’s basketball games by more than 30 points.
The Americans are always the favorite before the Olympics, but having their odds shrink all the way to -1600 is eye-opening. Part of that is that even though international basketball isn’t a priority to most NBA stars, the sting of Team USA’s bronze medal at the 2004 Olympics is still fresh enough that players are determined to not let it happen again.
The other reason for those -1600 odds is the lack of an identifiable challenger in Rio. The only team capable of stopping Team USA is probably Team USA. Between the Warriors’ trio and F Carmelo Anthony, who is playing in his fourth Olympics, Team USA will likely be built around perimeter shooting, which can be boom or bust. Team USA has only two true centers, DeMarcus Cousins and DeAndre Jordan, to chase after offensive rebounds.
Spain, which earned the silver medal in 2008 and 2012, is the nominal second favorite at +1000. Half of Spain’s roster, including C Pau Gasol and PG Jose Calderon, are over 30 years old. International basketball officials tolerate a lot of physical play, and the short turnaround time between games can take a toll on 30-somethings. Spain also boasts Minnesota Timberwolves PG Ricky Rubio, and usually plays well as a unit.
Veteran San Antonio Spurs PG Tony Parker and Charlotte Hornets SF Nicolas Batum willed France to the last Olympic berth by leading it to victory in a qualifying tournament in the Philippines in early July. On top of battling through that all-or-nothing qualifier, France has also added Utah Jazz C Rudy Gobert as a double-digit rebounder and shot blocker. Unlike Spain, France faces Team USA in group play on August 14, which hurts their chance of surprising the Americans in a one-game showdown in the medal round.
Like France, Serbia, which is listed at +2200 on those Rio Olympics odds, earned a lower betting line from the oddsmakers due to the fact it won a qualifying tournament. Denver Nuggets C Nikola Jokic, who is an emerging star, is part of a physical front line.
Two of the South America representatives, host Brazil and Argentina, and perennially solid Lithuania are listed at +2800 at sportsbooks monitored by OddsShark.com. From there, the board spreads out to Croatia (+5000), Australia (+15000) and China, Nigeria and Venezuela, all at +50000. Venezuela qualified at the FIBA Americas last summer by upsetting Canada.
The tournament begins on August 6 when Team USA plays China, and the gold medal game is on August 21, the final day of the Games.