While Patrick Mahomes is making his first NFL start after a loss, his Kansas City Chiefs have a proven track record as both a bounce-back team and a peak performer in prime-time.
The Chiefs, led by their first-year starter at quarterback, are 6-point favorites on the Sunday Night Football odds against the Cincinnati Bengals with a 58-point total at sportsbooks monitored by OddsShark.com.
Kansas City is coming off a 43-40 loss against the New England Patriots, but it is 10-4 straight-up in its last 14 games after a loss. The Chiefs are 9-3 SU and 10-2 against the spread in their last 12 games at night, whereas the Bengals are 2-8 SU in their last 10 prime-time games.
The Bengals, who are 4-2 SU and ATS this season, have a balanced offense centered around quarterback Andy Dalton that will be going up against a Chiefs defense that is dead last in total defense, allowing the most yards per game. With Kansas City linebacker Justin Houston (hamstring) and free safety Eric Berry (heel) both doubtful for this week, playmakers such as wide receiver A.J. Green and running back Joe Mixon should help Cincinnati, at minimum, do its part to help OVER bettors.
However, the Bengals defense is the fourth-most generous in the league and will need to try to take advantage of a rejigged Chiefs offensive line that has lost two key starters, center Mike Morse and guard Laurent Duvernay-Tardif.
The Bengals won outright in their last road game during Week 4 and are 12-3-1 ATS in their last 16 games on the road according to the OddsShark NFL Database after covering in their most recent road game. Since 2015, Cincinnati is also 1-6 SU and 4-3 ATS as a road underdog of 3.5 to 6.5 points.
The Chiefs, who are 5-1 SU and 6-0 ATS, have been a sight to behold offensively. Mahomes, arguably the league MVP over the first third of the regular season, commands an offense that is first in points scored, fifth in total yards and third in yards per pass. One key to the Chiefs being such a point machine is that they have rarely been stalled by interceptions and sacks, suffering only 10 through six games.
That’s hard to sustain, so bettors will have to decide whether the Chiefs are due for some lapses or whether the Bengals, who may not have outside linebacker Nick Vigil or strong safety Shawn Williams (concussion protocol), will be hard-pressed to force drive-killing mistakes.
Cincinnati is 24th in yards per rush allowed and 11th in yards per pass allowed, but it has had trouble covering outside receivers and running backs. That means there could be some long gains from the Chiefs’ Tyreek Hill and Kareem Hunt. The Chiefs are 8-2 SU and 6-4 ATS in their last 10 home games as a favorite of 3.5 to 6.5 points.
The total has gone OVER in five of the Bengals’ last seven games, with an average combined score of 55.71. The total has gone UNDER in six of the Chiefs’ last seven games at home, with an average combined score of 43.43.
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