Tom Brady

Patriots favored against Falcons in Super Bowl rematch

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It’s rare that the New England Patriots and Tom Brady are laying so few points at home, but then again, it’s been even longer since the Pats were dead last in the NFL in defense.

In a rematch of last season’s Super Bowl, if not necessarily a preview of this season’s, the Patriots are three-point favorites for Sunday night against the Atlanta Falcons with a 56.5-point total at sportsbooks monitored by OddsShark.com.

There have been only four games dating to 2009 when the Patriots were favored by 3.0 or fewer points in a regular-season home game, and they are 4-0 straight-up and 3-0-1 against the spread in that small sample. Counting Super Bowl LI, the Falcons are 0-5 SU and ATS in their last five games against the Patriots according to the OddsShark NFL Database.

The Patriots are 14-3 SU in their last 17 night games, but only 2-2 in the last four.

The Falcons, who are 3-2 SU and 2-3 ATS, are still a top-5 offense with QB Matt Ryan at the controls but have not shown the same dynamism they did while winning the NFC in 2016. New England has been dismal in coverage, ranking last in the NFL in yards per game (440.7) and yards per pass (8.6) allowed. Two of its top three cornerbacks, Stephen Gilmore (concussion) and Eric Rowe (groin), are iffy to play.

The Patriots might be stretched too thin to cover three-wideout looks with WRs Julio Jones, Mohamed Sanu and Taylor Gabriel; after all, this is a unit that was last seen allowing 354 yards to the New York Jets’ Josh McCown.

One reason why Atlanta is 9-2 SU and ATS in its last 11 road games is due to the stability of the 1-2 punch of RB Devonta Freeman and RB Tevin Coleman. One way to beat the Patriots is to outscore them, and Atlanta would seem to be capable of such if it curbs its turnover problems.

The Patriots, who are 4-2 SU and 2-4 ATS, are No. 1 in the NFL in total offense and passing yards thanks to Brady, TE Rob Gronkowski, WR Brandin Cooks and slot WRs Danny Amendola and Chris Hogan. The Falcons defense is allowing just 6.1 yards per pass, but it has not been making many disruption plays (12 sacks and only three takeaways), which teams need a few of against the Patriots in order to get Brady out of rhythm.

New England is 5-0 SU and ATS in its last five games against Atlanta but, of course, that required an epic combination of collapse and comeback during the Super Bowl. In the present, the Patriots offense is a little pass-heavy, ranking 21st in the NFL in yards per rush while relying mostly on RB Mike Gillislee. That’s unlikely to strike much fear into the hearts of Atlanta.

The game has the highest total of the week, but the total has gone over in 19 of the Falcons’ last 24 games and has also gone over in all three of the Patriots’ home games this season. The total has gone over in the Patriots’ last five games at home against teams with winning records.

For more info, picks and a breakdown of this week’s top sports betting news check out the new OddsShark podcast with Jon Campbell and Andrew Avery. Subscribe on iTunes, or check it out at OddsShark.libsyn.com.

Patriots, Chiefs take long streaks into NFL season opener

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An impressive streak against the spread will end when Tom Brady and the New England Patriots host the Kansas City Chiefs. The Patriots are listed as nine-point favorites against the Chiefs on the NFL Week 1 betting lines with a 48-point total for their Thursday Night Football matchup at sportsbooks monitored by OddsShark.com.

Defending Super Bowl champion New England is 11-0 straight-up in its last 11 conference games and is also 8-0 against the spread in its last eight games, according to the OddsShark NFL Database. However, Kansas City, which compiled the second-best record in the AFC last season, is 6-0 SU and ATS over its last six road games, suggesting they’re capable of earning the cover against a touchdown-plus line, if not winning outright.

Kansas City is 0-6 SU and 2-4 ATS in its last six road games against New England. Dating back to 2014, the Patriots are 10-4 ATS as a home favorite of 7.5 or more points.

The Chiefs were 12-5 and 9-8 ATS in 2016. Quarterback is Alex Smith is a game manager and few would try to argue otherwise, but will be surrounded by multiple weapons. If the Patriots focus on taking away the threat of TE Travis Kelce, that could create opening for long gains from both WR Tyreek Hill and rookie RB Kareem Hunt.

Kansas City is one of the best teams in the NFL at ball security, which could help with avoiding the early miscue that Brady and Co. turn into a lead that riles up the Gillette Stadium crowd.

The Patriots, who were 17-2 SU and 16-3 ATS overall last season, have surrounded Brady with a receiving corps built much more around speed, and also have TE Rob Gronkowski fully healthy. The main question is how much Brady, at this point, is on the same page with freshly arrived WR Brandin Cooks and Phillip Dorsett, who have joined Chris Hogan and Danny Amendola.

New England will have to be in sync, especially against a Chiefs defense that is very good at limiting opponents to field goals on red-zone opportunities.

Kansas City and OLB Justin Houston have managed to apply pressure to Brady in the past (most notably in a 41-14 victory during the 2014 season). Houston was not healthy when Kansas City got zero sacks during a playoff loss at New England two seasons ago.

Chiefs coach Andy Reid is 26-10 SU in his career in season openers or in games after bye weeks. That’s impressive, albeit not as much as Patriots coach Bill Belichick being 40-12 SU  in season openers or in games after bye weeks.

The total has gone over in five of the Chiefs’ last seven games on the road against the Patriots, and has also gone over in six of the Chiefs’ last eight September games.

For more info, picks and a breakdown of this week’s top sports betting news check out the new OddsShark podcast with Jon Campbell and Andrew Avery. Subscribe on iTunes, or check it out at OddsShark.libsyn.com.

Video: Patriots’ Tom Brady was secretly ready for dig at Roger Goodell, fifth Super Bowl ring

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Patriots QB Tom Brady took the high road when asked about his upcoming encounter with NFL commissioner Roger Goodell following New England’s Super Bowl LI win over the Atlanta Falcons.

Turns out Brady already had his own dig at the commissioner ready in advance.

Shields HealthCare aired a local ad just after the Super Bowl featuring Brady putting away his Super Bowl rings into a safe.

Brady first puts away his four rings but then gets asked by the technician if he has anything else to put away.

Magically, he pulls out a fifth ring and the technician suggests he gets a bigger safe next time, delivering a perfect set-up line to Brady’s not-so-subtle jab at the man who suspended him for four games for Deflategate.

“Roger that.”

Yes. Roger THAT.