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Penguins heavy favorites against Senators for Thursday’s Game 7 matchup

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Betting against Sidney Crosby in a do-or-done game takes some guts, since the Pittsburgh Penguins’ history shows they find a way when their backs are against the wall.

With a spot in the Stanley Cup final at stake, the Penguins are a -200 moneyline favorite against the +170 underdog Ottawa Senators with a five-goal total for Thursday at sportsbooks monitored by OddsShark.com. The winner moves on to the Stanley Cup final against the Nashville Predators.

This season, Pittsburgh is 14-1 in 15 games when it was a favorite of -200 to -500 on the moneyline, according to the OddsShark NHL Database. They are also 14-3 in their last 17 home games against Ottawa, but one big reason this series has required Game 7 is that the Penguins are 1-7 on the puckline in their last eight games against the Senators.

It’s no secret that Ottawa, which is 27-21-2 on the road this season and 35-28-5 as the underdog, will rely on goalie Craig Anderson (45 saves in Game 6) and their execution of a 1-3-1 neutral zone trap. The Senators have a strong defense with Erik Karlsson, Marc Methot, Dion Phaneuf and Cody Ceci, who have helped Ottawa stay in most games..

Ottawa will try to be opportunistic and hope that the likes of RW Bobby Ryan or C Kyle Turris can produce timely goals. Ottawa has been a moneyline underdog of +150 or more nine times since the NHL all-star break. They are 4-5 in those matchups.

Pittsburgh is 37-7-6 at home this season, as well as 51-17-11 as a favorite. They are 2-0 in Game 7s under head coach Mike Sullivan (both on the road), and have outplayed Ottawa over each of the last three games.

The presence and talent of Crosby and C Evgeni Malkin might be the hole cards that give the Penguins the ability to offset several key injuries. Defenseman Justin Schultz (upper body), defenseman Chad Ruhwedel (upper body), RW Patrik Hornqvist (upper body) and RW Tom Kuhnhackl (lower body) could all miss the game on Thursday.

Penguins goalie Matt Murray has allowed only three even-strength goals in three games since taking over as the starter. The total has gone under in six of Ottawa’s last nine road games against Pittsburgh.

If Pittsburgh wins, it will be the first time the franchise has won Game 7 of a series at home after losing Game 6 on the road. Ottawa is also out to buck a historical trend as it is 0-5 all-time in Game 7s, home and away. The last was in 2012.

Pittsburgh Penguins only team below 10/1 on 2018 Stanley Cup odds

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Anyone confident that the Pittsburgh Penguins can three-peat as Stanley Cup champions should probably wait until their price increases. With NHL free agency beginning this weekend, Sidney Crosby and the two-time defending champion Penguins are listed as +750 favorites on the 2018 Stanley Cup futures at sportsbooks monitored by OddsShark.com.

The Penguins have the luxury of almost $20 million in salary cap space to work with as they seek to upgrade the supporting cast around Crosby and Evgeni Malkin, so there’s a chance they could be in a position to make another Cup run. That being said, their price against the 31-team field is actually lower than it was at the outset of the recently completed playoffs.

Given the parity of hockey, it’s best to see if the Penguins’ price swells back up into the 10/1 range once the season is underway in October.

The Chicago Blackhawks (+1200) and Edmonton Oilers (+1200) share second spot on the board. Chicago’s price seems like a red herring, given that the Blackhawks have gone out in the first round of the playoffs two seasons in a row and still have salary-cap issues that forced them to jettison one of their best forwards, Artemi Panarin.

The Oilers, of course, are getting reigning MVP Connor McDavid locked down on an eight-year contract, but their rabid fanbase could be in for some nervous times amid rumors that teams might try to sign star center Leon Draisaitl, a restricted free agent, to an offer sheet.

Five teams draw in at +1400: the Anaheim Ducks, Nashville Predators, New York Rangers, Tampa Bay Lightning and Washington Capitals. The Ducks are a bit on the old side, but the defending Western Conference champion Predators came within just two victories of a Stanley Cup despite losing two dangerous forwards, Kevin Fiala and Ryan Johansen.

The Rangers could be an interesting play if, indeed, they end up signing Kevin Shattenkirk, who is the only impact defenceman set to hit free agency.

The Lightning, provided they get a full season out of C Steven Stamkos, who’s complemented down the middle by Tyler Johnson and Brayden Point, could be in line for a bounce-back season. They missed the playoffs in 2017 after winning five playoff series over the previous two years. As for Washington, Alex Ovechkin and company had their best opportunity to win the Cup this past spring, and got shut out in Game 7 at home against Pittsburgh.

The Dallas Stars, Montreal Canadiens, Minnesota Wild and Toronto Maple Leafs are each listed at +1600 on the Stanley Cup betting lines for 2018.

Some darkhorses at online gambling sites include the St. Louis Blues (+2800), who reached the second round last season before being ousted by Nashville and will have a new 1-2 punch next season with Vladimir Tarasenko being complemented by Brayden Schenn. While Edmonton is the highest Canadian team on the board, the Calgary Flames (+3000) look good on paper after dealing for veteran goalie Mike Smith and also adding D Travis Hamonic to support an impressive group of young forwards that includes Johnny Gaudreau.

 

 

Penguins home favorites against Predators for Game 5 of Stanley Cup final

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In what’s been a strictly home-ice Stanley Cup final, the Pittsburgh Penguins have been bet up into a heavy favorite against the Nashville Predators for the likely series-turning Game 5.

The Penguins are a -155 moneyline favorite against the +135 underdog Predators with a 5.5-goal total for Thursday’s matchup at sportsbooks monitored by OddsShark.com. The Penguins opened at -139 on the moneyline, but they are also riding a trend of being 9-3 in their last 12 home playoff games.

That means there is betting value in taking the Predators, who are a respectable 5-5 SU on the road during the postseason. Nashville has topped Pittsburgh in five-on-five shot attempts in all four games of the series. The main pregame question revolving around the Predators involves the health of D P.K. Subban (ankle), who is part of the shutdown pair that has held Penguins C Evgeni Malkin without a goal for three consecutive games.

Predators goalie Pekka Rinne also allowed eight goals on 36 shots during the two previous games at Pittsburgh’s PPG Paints Arena.

The Predators have had the run of play during the series, largely by virtue of a blueline led by Roman Josi, Ryan Ellis, Mattias Ekholm and Subban. They also managed to win Game 5 on the road in the third round against Anaheim, although that came in a rink where they were 4-4 in their most recent eight games, which tops a 1-6 record in their last seven road games against the Penguins.

The Penguins are 8-3 at home in these playoffs heading into Thursday’s Game 5 matchup, but have been increasingly reliant on C Sidney Crosby as the final has unfolded. Reliable sources of offense such as RW Phil Kessel and RW Bryan Rust are on six-game goal droughts, while Pittsburgh’s power play has been powerless through the first five games.

However, any physical limitations with Subban could be a boon to Malkin. Left wing Jake Guentzel (playoff-most 13 goals, including four in as many games versus Nashville) will also be looking for a bounce-back after missing some top scoring chances during Game 4.

Pittsburgh’s defense is mostly a patchwork outfit; Crosby actually led the Penguins in ice time in Game 4, which is rare for a forward. While there’s been speculation about a goalie switch, Matt Murray is most likely to start.

The total has gone OVER in five of Nashville’s last seven games against Pittsburgh for totals bettors, according to the OddsShark NHL Database. The Predators will host Game 6 of the Stanley Cup final on Sunday night.