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Kansas, North Carolina atop NCAA Tournament odds heading into Sweet 16

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With the Final Four due to be played in Glendale, Arizona, the updated odds to win the NCAA Tournament are tempting bettors to back a western team, even though it’s been 20 years since one cut down the nets in April.

The Kansas Jayhawks and North Carolina Tar Heels, respectively, are 1-2 on the college basketball champion futures with odds of +475 and +500 at sportsbooks monitored by OddsShark.com.  But some of the more interesting movement since the dust settled from the first weekend – when the past two national champions, Villanova and Duke, were each bounced – involves teams from (or close to) the West Coast.

The Arizona Wildcats – who have the lure of a Final Four practically in their backyard – and Gonzaga Bulldogs have each climbed up to +650, after being listed at +1200 and +1000 respectively. The two might be on a collision course for the West Region title, with Wildcats star Lauri Markannen going up against a swarming Zags defense.

The UCLA Bruins (+900) have better value, since their run is premised on having to go through the Kentucky Wildcats (+1000) and potentially North Carolina just to make the Final Four. The Bruins have looked impressive; they were one of only two favorites to cover the spread during the eight second-round games last Sunday. A team with talent such as Bryce Alford and Lonzo Ball is an irresistible force, to say the least.

That said, Kansas’ odds have dropped to +475 – from +800 last week – for many reasons, among them the sure handle of point guard Frank Mason III. The Jayhawks don’t necessarily have their Final Four ticket punched, but the remaining Midwest Region field of the Michigan Wolverines (+1600), Oregon Ducks (+1800) and Purdue Boilermakers (+2000) seem eminently beatable.

Star Justin Jackson and North Carolina have tougher competition in the South Region. The Tar Heels have drawn the pesky Butler Bulldogs (+4000) as their Sweet 16 foe and potentially could face the Kentucky-UCLA winner in the Elite Eight, although the survivor will have to recover fast.

Another interesting mover on the board is the Florida Gators (+1200), whose odds have dropped by more than half. The Gators rate the best odds of any team still alive in the East Region. Oddsmakers still don’t think the Baylor Bears (+1600) can keep it together.

The Sweet 16 gets underway on Thursday with four games, including Michigan as a 1.5-point favorite against the Oregon Ducks. As well, Gonzaga is a three-point favorite against the West Virginia Mountaineers.

Kansas is a five-point favorite against Purdue. One trend of note: Kansas is 3-3 SU and 1-5 ATS in its last six games when it was favored against a 4-seed. And Arizona is a 7.5-point favorite against the Xavier Musketeers. Arizona is 5-4-1 ATS in its last 10 games where it was favored by seven to 12.5 points according to the OddsShark College Basketball Database.

Warriors seeking Game 3 victory at Cleveland as road betting favorites

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Golden State Warriors backers are hoping the third time will be the charm when it comes to the Cleveland Cavaliers and Game 3 of the NBA Finals.

As the best-of-seven series resumes near the banks of Lake Erie, Kevin Durant and the Warriors are listed as 3.5-point favorites against the Cavaliers with a 226-point total in their NBA Finals matchup on Wednesday at sportsbooks monitored by OddsShark.com.

In each of their two previous playoff matchups, Cleveland won Game 3 on its home floor at Quicken Loans Arena. Of course, those Warriors had neither Durant nor a record of 29-1 straight-up and 21-7-2 against the spread in their last 30 games (according to the OddsShark NBA Database). Nor were they threatening to go undefeated in the playoffs.

Golden State is 9-11 SU and 7-12-1 ATS in its last 20 road games when it was favored by 3.5 or fewer points, but apart from some turnover issues they have dictated terms to the Cavaliers. Cleveland has yet to find a defensive matchup for Durant (38 and 33 points in the first two games), while SG Klay Thompson went 8-for-12 from the floor in Game 2 on Sunday.

The Warriors’ turnovers (40) in the first two games almost matched their combined winning margin (41 points). It’s scary to think what Golden State, which is 5-0 ATS in their last five road games, would do if they cut their turnovers down to about 10 per game.

Cleveland, which is 16-4 SU and 12-8 ATS in its last 20 home playoff games, needs much more than characteristic superstar performances from SF LeBron James and PG Kyrie Irving to get back into the series. Members of the supporting cast such as PG J.R. Smith, PF Channing Frye (a solid three-point shooter) and physical PF Tristan Thompson will need to step up their contributions.

The Cavaliers shot 34.5 and 45 per cent in each of the first two games. That’s likely to improve now that the three-point threats such as Frye and Kevin Love are in familiar surroundings, but they would have still lost Game 2 even if they had shot 50% from the floor.

The total has gone over in seven of the Warriors’ last eight road games heading into Wednesday’s Game 3 matchup. The total has also gone over in four of the Warriors’ last six road games against the Cavaliers. The total has gone over in 12 of the Cavaliers’ 20 most recent home games against Western Conference teams.

North Carolina narrow favorite against Gonzaga for NCAA Tournament championship

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Joel Berry II and the North Carolina Tar Heels, who only seem to play close games at the Final Four, are a slim betting favorite against the first-time finalist Gonzaga Bulldogs.

The Tar Heels are listed as a 1.5-point favorite against the Bulldogs with 153.5-point total in the college basketball championship game matchup at sportsbooks monitored by OddsShark.com. The teams tip off at University of Phoenix Stadium in Glendale, Arizona on Monday.

The Tar Heels are 7-2 both straight-up and against the spread on the college basketball point spreads in their last nine games as a favorite of 1.5 or fewer points. Gonzaga, though, is 15-1 SU in its last 16 games with one day off between games.

Coaches Roy Williams and Mark Few are going head-to-head for the first time since 2009, when UNC ousted the Zags in the Sweet 16 on its way to the national title. North Carolina is 0-4 ATS in its last four games after winning the previous game in a matchup, while Gonzaga is 6-0 SU and ATS in its last six games after losing the previous game in a matchup.

Gonzaga’s impressive record when it has a day of rest attests to having perhaps the deepest rotation in the country, with PG Nigel Williams-Goss as the floor leader.

Seven-foot-one Przemek Karnowski and freshman Zach Collins will be tasked with avoiding foul trouble and preventing North Carolina’s big men such as Kennedy Meeks and Isaiah Hicks from nabbing the offensive rebounds that give the Tar Heels extra scoring opportunities. How Collins, a NBA-bound freshman, responds to North Carolina’s challenge might make or break Gonzaga.

The Bulldogs are 1-5 SU in their last six games as an underdog, according to the OddsShark College Basketball Database, but those contests are spread out from the 2013-14 to 2015-16 seasons.

With North Carolina, the main question is the health of Berry, who is soldiering on with two sprained ankles. Berry clearly seemed affected during the Tar Heels’ semifinal win against Oregon and will have greater challenges against Gonzaga at each end of the court.

The Bulldogs have, in Williams-Goss, a more electric point guard and also play man-to-man defense while Oregon uses a zone. Justin Jackson, who is North Carolina’s first look on offense, is a resourceful attacker whom Gonzaga will be hard-pressed to shut down completely.

With Berry compromised, backcourt depth will be important. Gonzaga has been more impressive than North Carolina in this area during the run of the NCAA Tournament.

The total has gone under in seven of Gonzaga’s last 10 games. The total has gone under in Gonzaga’s last five games against the Atlantic Coast Conference The total has gone under in 10 of North Carolina’s last 14 games after a win. The total has also gone under in five of North Carolina’s last six games with a closing total of 153.5 points or less.