English Premier League betting: Liverpool small favorite over Arsenal

Leave a comment

Based on their recent history, one relative certainty when Arsenal plays Liverpool is that they might hit the over.

Ahead of their match on Saturday, Liverpool is even-money at +105 for the win with Arsenal a +240 underdog and a draw listed at +255 at sportsbooks monitored by OddsShark.com. The English Premier League rivals, who are in a five-team race for three spots in next season’s Champions League, have combined for 13 goals in their past two matchups.

Arsenal, which is 15-5-5 (wins-draws-losses) in the Premiership, will be trying not to concede three points. Key playmaker Mesut Ozil (illness) may be something of a match-day decision for manager Arsene Wegner, and Ozil’s absence would affect Arsenal’s ability to create opportunities for striker Alexis Sanchez.

Liverpool, which is 14-7-5, is dealing with a varied list of injuries. Captain Jordan Henderson (foot) is out , while the status of defender Dejan Lovren (knee) and forward Daniel Sturridge (illness) seems shaky.

Saturday’s fixtures also feature a matchup of two teams drawing bettors’ attention for trending in opposite directions, with Manchester United a -425 favorite against +1100 underdog Bournemouth (with a draw listed at +500).

Manchester United, at 13-9-3, is only two points adrift of a coveted top-four spot. With 35-year-old Swedish striker Zlatan Ibrahimovic scoring at an impressive rate, Man U has lost only one of its last 26 matches and has won its last six across all competitions.

They are 4-3-0 (wins-draws-losses) in their last seven matches at Old Trafford against mid-table teams such as Bournemouth, but totals bettors should know that they have scored three goals in only one of those matches.

A continued skein of wins would further lower Manchester United’s price on the top-four finish odds board at the sportsbooks. One of their central playmakers in the midfield, Henrikh Mkhitaryan, should be back from a leg injury, which would help with generating a more flowing attack.

Bournemouth, 7-5-14 in the league, has lost six of its last seven matches in all competitions and has been outscored 12-4 in their last four Premiership matches. The Cherries have also allowed a league-most 30 goals in 13 away matches.

Bournemouth are still four points ahead of the bottom three with 14 matches left, but need to win one soon.

Manchester City’s odds halved in EPL futures after first loss

Leave a comment

Manchester City looking human — to the point it came away empty-handed in a league match for the first time in 2017-18 — has restored some value to English Premier League futures.

Manchester City is now a -3300 favorite on the EPL futures boards, according to sportsbooks monitored by OddsShark.com. The Citizens still have a 12-point cushion with 15 matches left in the season, so it would have to collapse in order to be overtaken by second-place Manchester United (+3300) or Liverpool (+4500) and Chelsea (+10000), who are level in third place at 15 points back.

Manchester United being the apparent winner of the Alexis Sanchez sweepstakes as the forward prepares to leave Arsenal does alter Top 4 odds. United (-600) is likely a shoo-in and Liverpool (-500) showed in its win against City that it can adapt to life after Philippe Coutinho.

However, losing out on Sanchez, or losing him period, respectively puts Chelsea (-450) and Arsenal (+700) on shaky ground. Tottenham Hotspur (even) could be poised for a run.

Matchweek 24 commences early Saturday with Brighton and Hove Albion (+525), which has just one win in five games, hosting Chelsea (-170, +275 odds on the draw), who will need Michy Batshuayi to cover the scoring with Alvaro Morata and Pedro Rodriguez serving suspensions. Chelsea might have to grind for the win, which is why the under on the 2.5 total is deep into minus money at -150.

West Ham United (-110), with Marko Anautovic having five goals in as many games, hosts Bournemouth (+290, +250 draw), which also been in good form. West Ham should have no reason for a letdown playing at home against a just slightly lower-placed team. The 2.5 total seems low for a game where it’s unlikely anyone plays for the 0-0 or 1-1 draw.

Arsenal (-210) has likely seen the last of Sanchez and Alexandre Lacazette is mired in a goal drought, so Crystal Palace (+575, +350 draw) could create some interesting results if it strikes on the counter-attack. The over on the 3.0 total is priced at -110.

Leicester City (-125) is on an upward tick with a four-match unbeaten streak in all competitions, while Watford (+330, +275 draw) has regressed. Leicester City’s Riyad Mahrez has four goals in as many games against Watford. Neither team is a great candidate for a clean sheet, so the over (-135) on the 2.5 total is a good pick.

Stoke City (even) will try to get the new-manager bump under the command of Paul Lambert is it hosts Huddersfield Town (+295, +225 draw). Dollar-store sports psychology might suggest that between Stoke’s fragile confidence and 14th-placed Huddersfield knowing the teams between them and Stoke all have tough matches this weekend, a draw and the under (-150) on the 2.5 total are pragmatic plays.

And Southampton (+450) is winless in 10 matches, while Tottenham Hotspur (-165, +290 draw) and Harry Kane are on a strong run where they have won six of eight games and scored 23 goals coming into their Sunday betting matchup. Tottenham pays +110 for the minus-1.0 goal line and the over on the 2.5 total is even money. Until a team stymies Kane (eight goals in his last five), he’s a strong play in goal scorer props.

Premier League Odds: Man City puts unbeaten record on the line

Leave a comment

The megabucks transfer of Philippe Coutinho from Liverpool to Barcelona has sway over a couple of English Premier League lines – one immediate, one long-range.

As league play resumes, undefeated Manchester City is a +120 favorite away at Coutinho-less Liverpool, who comes back at +205; the draw offers +260 on the three-way moneyline and the total is 3.0, according to sportsbooks monitored by OddsShark.com.

Whether it is relevant that Man City’s last win at Anfield in 2003 is debatable, since City has become such a well-heeled club in the years since. But this could be a tricky matchup for the Citizens since key midfielder Kevin de Bruyne will likely to be marked by the physical Emre Can.

The loss of Coutinho notwithstanding, Liverpool still has firepower with the EPL’s No. 2 scorer, Mohamed Salah, along with Sadio Mane and Roberto Firmino. The 5-0 scoreline from the teams’ first league game at City was an anomaly, as Liverpool was a 10-man side after a red card in the first half.

The 3.0 total pays -120 for the over, and there’s probably just too much potency in each team’s attack for anyone to record a shutout. If one is going chalk with a City pick, then Raheem Sterling with his knack for late-game tallies is worth a side bet in goal scorer props.

Huddersfield Town (+160) has not lost at home this season against a lower-placed team, but West Ham United (+190, +200 draw) is on an uptick with a win or draw in six of its last seven games. Five of the last six games in this matchup have had fewer than 2.5 goals. The 2.0 total pays -110 either way.

Watford (+135) is in a funk with one win in six league fixtures, but Southampton (+195, +230 draw) is winless in nine. These sides’ last eight games have had a combined 34 goals (4.25 per match), so the 2.5 total with over paying -105 is very good value.

Chelsea (-375), off a short turnaround from a Carabao Cup match, hosts Leicester City (+1000, +475 draw). Chelsea will have captain Gary Cahill on its back line, but its finishing has been problematic lately. Leicester, which has both conceded and scored in 14 of 22 games, is even money on the goals line at +1.5.

Bournemouth (+355) let Arsenal (-145, +310 draw) off the hook during their 2017 fixture by blowing a three-goal lead. Bournemouth, with striker Callum Wilson up front, offers great value for the upset. In any event, there should be scoring; the over on the 3.0 total pays 2.5.

Meantime, Man City’s 15-point cushion on second-placed Man United has destroyed any value in EPL champions futures, as it’s dropped to -10000. The best futures prop might be for top goal scorer. Tottenham’s Harry Kane (-185) is the homegrown favorite, but he has only one more goal than Liverpool’s Mohamed Salah (+400), who at 4-to-1 offers enticing value. Liverpool, which is 6-2-1 without Coutinho this season, should still have sufficient playmaking support to get Salah his scoring opportunities.

City’s Sergio Aguero (+500) and the aforementioned Sterling (+2000) are four and five goals behind Kane respectively, but they could cancel each other out and also get spotted in league games if City continues advancing in the Champions League, FA Cup and Carabao Cup competitions.